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 411mania » Politics »
Sunday Swing State Polls Analysis: OH, FL, VA, IA, WI, NV, CO, NH, NC, National
Posted by Ashish on 11.04.2012



Tomorrow is the final full day of the 2012 campaign, and all the data we have continues to point to an Obama victory on Tuesday. That doesn't guarantee that it will happen. Polls have been wrong before, but they would need to be wrong on a historic level -- meaning the polling averages would need to be very off (by 3%-5%) in several states -- for Romney to top 270 electoral votes. Turnout is what matters now. If Obama turns out his voters, he'll win. If he fails to get some of his more sporadic voters out to the polls, Romney will have a shot.

Today's numbers, particularly the Pew national poll, also point to Obama gaining following his handling of Hurricane Sandy last week.

But overall, the numbers are now converging. For months, we had wild polling. The national polls said one thing, state polls said another. Many pollsters showed wildly different results in the same state. But now, as it almost always does, everything is lining up. The polls are all largely in agreement now that Obama is up nationally (but by a very narrow margin) and up in key swing states he needs to top 270 electoral votes.

Here are the numbers, followed by the polling averages of each swing state (an average of all the latest polls from every swing state), followed by my analysis. Note that most of these polls are FINAL polls, meaning the pollster will not update again. This is it.

* OHIO: Obama 52%, Romney 47% (Public Policy)
* OHIO: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (YouGov)
* OHIO: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Columbus Dispatch)
* FLORIDA: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (YouGov)
* VIRGINIA: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy)
* VIRGINIA: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (YouGov)
* IOWA: Obama 47%, Romney 42% (Des Moines Register)
* IOWA: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Public Policy)
* IOWA: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (YouGov)
* WISCONSIN: Obama 51%, Romney 48% (Public Policy)
* WISCONSIN: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (YouGov)
* NEVADA: Obama 49%, Romney 45% (YouGov)
* COLORADO: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (YouGov)
* NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Public Policy)
* NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama 47%, Romney 43% (YouGov)
* NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (WMUR)
* NORTH CAROLINA: Romney 49%, Obama 47% (YouGov)

* NATIONAL: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (Pew Research)
* NATIONAL: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (Public Policy)
* NATIONAL: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (RAND)
* NATIONAL: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (YouGov)
* NATIONAL: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (ABC/Washington Post)
* NATIONAL: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (NBC/WSJ)
* NATIONAL: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (CNN)
* NATIONAL: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)

* OHIO AVG: Obama +4.4%
* IOWA AVG: Obama +3.3%
* WISCONSIN AVG: Obama +5.5%
* NEVADA AVG: Obama +4.8%
* COLORADO AVG: Obama +2.1%
* VIRGINIA AVG: Obama +3.4%
* FLORIDA AVG: Romney +1.2%
* NORTH CAROLINA AVG: Romney +1.5%
* NEW HAMPSHIRE AVG: Obama +3.3%

* NATIONAL AVG: Obama +0.8%

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