Final Swing State Polls Analysis
Posted by Ashish on 11.05.2012
A final look at where the race stands before Election Day tomorrow...
Here we are, the final polling update for 2012. We may get a few new polls tomorrow but I doubt I'll do a full update on them. Instead I'll focus on the actual signs of turnout tomorrow, along with the inevitable exit polling leaks, partisan freakouts, and the other drama that always unfolds on election night.
Today's data continues to paint the same picture we've been seeing -- the national popular vote remains very close (with a slight lead to Obama), while Obama holds larger, more sturdy leads in the key swing states that would put him over 270. As I've been saying, polls would have to be fundamentally wrong in several states for Romney to win. It could happen, but the type of polling failure Romney would need has not happened before in recent history. It's a turnout game now -- if Obama turns his sporadic voters out, he'll win. If he doesn't, Romney will have a shot.