The Political Universe 05.08.7

Posted by Jason Easley on 05.08.2007

While speaking in Detroit, Barack Obama criticized the auto industry for producing too many gas guzzlers. Although he did propose an interesting solution to the problem, I’ll tell you what it is, and give you my opinion. Also, President Bush’s approval rating falls to a brand new low. I’ll give the numbers, some historical context, and tell you why this could be bad news for the 2008 GOP candidates. All this and more is in the Tuesday edition of this column.

Obama criticizes U.S. automakers for not producing fuel efficient vehicles

On Monday, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama gave a speech in Detroit criticizing U.S. automakers for not producing fuel efficient vehicles. Obama also said that U.S. energy policy must change in order to help U.S. automakers meet the demand for more fuel efficient cars and trucks. "Automakers still refuse to make the transition to fuel-efficient production because they say it's too expensive at a time when they're losing profits and struggling under the weight of massive healthcare costs, but expensive is no longer an excuse for inaction. The auto industry is on a path that is unacceptable and unsustainable – for their business, for their workers and for America." What Obama leaves out of his criticism is that the U.S. automakers were responding to consumer demand, especially in the SUV market. Until gas prices shot up, most Americans didn't care about fuel efficiency.

Obama went on to say, "For years, while foreign competitors were investing in more fuel-efficient technology for their vehicles, American automakers were spending their time investing in bigger, faster cars. "And as the global demand for fuel-efficient and hybrid cars have skyrocketed, it's foreign competitors who are filling the orders." Then Obama announced a fairly creative proposal that is designed to help both the U.S. auto industry and the environment. Obama proposed that the federal government provide financial assistance of either 10% or $7 billion to help cover the health care costs of retired auto workers through 2017. However, in exchange for the help on healthcare, the automakers have to take half of their health care savings and invest it in technology to produce more fuel efficient cars.

If auto makers reject this plan, then Obama has a plan B. He would offer them $3 billion over 10 years to retool plants to produce more efficient automobiles. "Our goal is not to destroy the industry, but to help bring it into the 21st Century," he said. "So if the auto industry is prepared to step up to its responsibilities, then we as a country should be prepared to help," Obama said. The auto industry has so far resisted any attempts by Congress to require more fuel efficient cars and trucks. The industry argues that it is moving as fast as it can, and that new mandates would cost billions of dollars. There are several bills in Congress that offer tax incentives in exchange for better fuel efficiency, but thus far none are even close to being advanced and passed.

The Obama plan calls for efficiency standards to be raised 1 mile per gallon a year, until it reaches 35 miles per gallon. This is the same rate of increase that has proposed by the Bush administration, and that a Senate committee is expected to pass today. The current standards are 27.7 mpg for cars, and 22.2 mpg for trucks and SUVs. Obama said that more efficient cars would save America 2.5 million barrels of oil per day. While I don't think it is correct for Obama to strictly blame the auto industry, I do think that his solution is on the right track.

The biggest problem that U.S. automakers have is the exploding cost of retiree health care. Helping with retiree health care is a win-win-win for everyone. Retirees will get to keep more of their coverage, the automakers get help with a major expense, and Americans get more efficient cars that will save them money at the gas pump. The point here is to get Americans to cut their consumption. Driving is the act that consumes the most oil. (Gasoline is 44% of all U.S. oil consumption). More efficient cars will not only help solve our oil consumption problem, but also hybrid vehicles are better for the environment, and should be part of any global warming solution. The point is that the ideas are there, but it is matter of providing the right package of incentives to get the automobile industry to do what needs done.

Classic TV theme of the week



Bush approval rating hits a new low

A Newsweek poll released on Saturday has found that President Bush now registers the lowest public approval rating since Jimmy Carter. Bush is viewed favorably by only 28% of those surveyed. Sixty four percent of those who were asked disapprove of how the president is doing his job. This matches the low point for Jimmy Carter in late June/early July of 1979. Bush is now within shouting distance of the two lowest approval ratings of all time, Richard Nixon's 23% in 1974, and Harry Truman's 22% in 1952. To put the stark depths of the current Bush numbers into perspective, Bill Clinton's lowest approval rating was 36%. Ronald Reagan and L.B.J.'s low marks were each 35%. Gerald Ford's was 37%, and popular presidents Ike and FDR both had lows of 48%. The brief administration of JFK was most popular with low of 56% approval.

Even for an administration that has screwed up as much as this one has, these numbers are still staggering. They now share the depths of failure with the likes of Carter, Nixon, and Truman. For Republicans, what's even worse is that it looks like Bush's problems are dragging down their 2008 presidential candidates. In every single potential head to head match up between the top three candidates in each party, the Democrats prevail. The smallest margin of victory for the Democrats comes in the Clinton/Giuliani match up, but Clinton wins that one 49%-46% with 5% undecided.

When the poll asked, how satisfied they were with their choices for their party's nomination, 77% of registered Democrats or Democratic leaners were satisfied, but only 56% of registered Republicans or GOP leaners felt the same way about their choices. Among dissatisfied Republicans only 32% want Newt Gingrich to run, and 46% want Fred Thompson to run. When the same question was posed to dissatisfied Democrats, 60% wanted Al Gore to run. In the poll, most registered voters leaned towards the Democrats, 52%-37%. Also only 22% of registered voters considered themselves Republicans. 36% called themselves Democrats and 37% Independents.

Unless George W. Bush does something to help his own popularity, such as bring an end to the war in Iraq, I don't see how Republicans are going to be able to win in 2008. To put it bluntly, Republicans voters aren't all that enthused about their choices for 2008, and the party is saddled with a president who has become an anchor around their collective necks. It doesn't look like much help is on the way, as Republican voters aren't all that excited about the other candidates who are waiting in the wings and might join their primaries either. I will continue to caution that we are still a very long time away from the general election, but I can see the beginnings of a perfect storm brewing up against Republicans in 2008. It doesn't matter who wins in 2008, but it is almost certain that this country is moving back to the middle, and things will change.

Be sure to check out…

I can't believe that Matt mentioned GoldenEye 007, which is one of the greatest games ever made. Oh and The Weekly Monitor is pretty damn good too.

Ryan Latimer has Dan Martin and my radio co-host George H. Sirois sparring in Week 42 of Politics: Fact or Fiction.

Speaking of TPU Radio, here is a column about the show and a story about why the congressional GOP is getting nervous about the Iraq war.

Dan Martin writes the perfect counterbalance to off handed comments, especially after VA Tech, in this zone about the stigma of mental illness. I hope you all are reading Dan, because each week, he writes solid and powerful columns. For this, and his consistency, I respect him.

Well boys and girls, it is time for me to punch out and head home. Don't worry, though I'll be back on Friday with more news and views from the political world. Have a great week.

"Last night in California the first Republican debate was held in Reagan Presidential Library. The candidates tried to distance themselves from President Bush. The first step in distancing yourself from President Bush is appearing at a library. Last night in California the first Republican debate was held in Reagan Presidential Library. The candidates tried to distance themselves from President Bush. The first step in distancing yourself from President Bush is appearing at a library." --- Conan O'Brien

"Did you see the Republican debate? I tried to TiVo it, but my TiVo said, "Not interested." "It was so dull; people were actually turning over to see what was on NBC. And the candidates came prepared. Rudy Giuliani brought his energy; McCain brought his experience; Mitt Romney brought his charm; Mike Huckabee brought his name tag."
--- Jay Leno

"Here's the kind of thing I can't get enough of: There's a brand new book out, and it says Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice says she has a crush on President Bush. Well, sure, who doesn't?" --- David Letterman