A Commentary: The Democrats Hillary Problem

Posted by Jason Easley on 06.25.2007

This week’s commentary focuses on Hillary Clinton, and why she may end up being the problem for her party rather than the solution.

A Commentary: The Democrats Hillary Problem

Hillary Clinton. The very mention of her name divides people. They either love her or they hate her, and they do so with equal passion. Ever since she first stepped into the Senate over 6 years ago, it was the worst kept secret in the political world that Hillary Clinton burned with a desire to be president, and now here we are in 2007 with Mrs. Clinton as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Not only is she out front, but if the polls are to be believed, she could have a vice grip on the Democratic nomination as soon as the end of February 2008. However, it seems that most Democrats have not stopped to ask themselves is nominating Hillary Clinton a good idea? The crux of the Clinton campaign argument is that she can win in the November and bring the White House back to the Democrats, but wasn't this the exact same reason John Kerry was nominate in 2004? Even more so, isn't every nominee expected to win?

The reality which the Clinton campaign smartly avoids is that a Hillary nomination makes the task of winning the White House much tougher than if any of the other less polarizing Democrats were to be selected, because Hillary Clinton will never be popular. (She has the warmth and personality of Al Gore and John Kerry. She doesn't even have an experienced public record to run on, and no, being First Lady does not count as experience. America didn't choose her for the job. She was part of the package that America did elect, her husband Bill). All of her shortcomings could be easily overcome if she would take clear stands on the issues, and truly lead, but she has chosen to run a campaign where she says a little as possible about the issues. Vagueness and generalities are the marks of the Clinton campaign so far.

The other big problem for Hillary is the war in Iraq. No one who has studied her record now believes that she is against this war for any other reason than this is what a majority of Democrats want. When the war was popular, Hillary was pro-war, but now that it isn't she has hopped on the get the troops out bandwagon. If what I have written is true, then why is Hillary Clinton winning? She is winning because she and her husband are the most powerful force in the Democratic Party. For example, who stands to benefit most from a frontloaded primary system that emphasizes name recognition and the ability to spend money to advertise over grass roots campaigning? There is only one candidate in the Democratic field who fits this description, and that is Hillary Clinton. A frontloaded campaign allows the Clinton team a chance to hide her weaknesses, and market their candidate through advertising as a woman and a winner.

In short, the Democratic leadership is railroading much of the Party's base into voting for Clinton. The deck is really being stacked against an Obama or Edwards. The Democratic Party establishment wants Hillary Clinton to win. They don't want her to be seriously challenged. They want their nominee selected early and to emerge relatively unscathed from the primary process. Barack Obama thus far has been a good party solider and refrained from pointing out Mrs. Clinton's obvious flaws. John Edwards has been critical of Clinton, but with each passing week, his chances of winning the Democratic nomination appear to grow more remote. So besides her obvious shortcomings in the personality, experience, vision, and popularity areas what else is wrong with her?

The biggest self created myth of the Clinton campaign is that she can win in November. The latest Newsweek poll of potential general election match ups has Clinton leading by 7 points 51%-44%, but all the Democrats in the Newsweek poll beat all the GOP contenders including Fred Thompson. If we keep looking at polls we start to see that the Newsweek poll might be the anomaly. In the latest Cook Report poll, Clinton is tied with both Giuliani and Thompson at 42%. Obama runs the same against Giuliani, but runs better against the other Republican contenders. In the latest Gallup poll Clinton leads Giuliani by 4 points, 50%-46%, but this is within the margin of error of 4, thus making the race a tie. Clinton also ties McCain in this poll. A Rasmussen Reports poll released on Sunday revealed that Clinton is tied with Giuliani there too. Guiliani holds a slight 46%-45% lead in this poll.

On Friday, Rasmussen Reports released a new poll that found that Hillary has highest amount of base support among all candidates (29%), but 46% of all those surveyed said that they would definitely vote against her in the general election. She is viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 48%. Democrats give her an 80% approval rating, but Independents only give her a 51% favorable. The only thing that helps her is that Giuliani's favorability rating has crashed to 53%, McCain to 50%, and Thompson is still a relative unknown, but even his favorability rating among Republicans is 59%. The only thing that is certain about a Clinton nomination is that it will divide the country 50-50 again. If Democrats were serious about winning in November they would be better served with a candidate who is less polarizing.

Due to Clinton's relative weakness, her success or failure will largely depend on who else she is running against. She matches up best with Giuliani, but a nightmare scenario for her may be if Thompson is the GOP nominee and Bloomberg runs as an Independent. Bloomberg has a favorability rating among voters in all parties of 35%. Bloomberg was included in the Newsweek poll and he didn't change the margins in the race, but depending on who the GOP nominee was, he got 11%-13% support nationally. These are strong numbers for a candidate who is not known around the country, and hasn't spent a dime.

If Thompson is the Republican nominee, Clinton may not swing a single red state, and lose Independent votes to Bloomberg. Once again, the 2008 election could come down to Ohio, and as we have seen in the last two close elections, anything can happen in one state. The Democrats Hillary problem is the choice of selecting a nominee that they should know will split the country in half and lead to razor close general election, or do they ignore the candidate with the highest name recognition and most resources in order to have a better chance in November? By nominating Hillary, they could be helping the Republicans, but rejecting Hillary would mean rejecting the most powerful Democrat of all, Bill Clinton. Who knows, the Democrats might nominate Clinton, swing a few thousand votes in Ohio and take back the White House, but in my mind there are better options than this strategy for the Democrats. There are better options out there than Hillary Clinton.

This discussion continued on TPU Radio

For more Hillary Clinton talk check out George and I on the radio show. You can give us a listen with the media player below.




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