The Political Universe 08.21.07
Posted by Jason Easley on 08.21.2007
Once again the Pentagon is saying that the combat role of U.S troops could be reduced in 2008. You know, this is almost like an annual end of summer rite of passage with this war. 411's Jason Easley looks at the possibilities and reads what Senators Levin and Warner have to say about Iraq. Plus, Hillary Clinton picked up a big endorsement in Arkansas. Is her nomination now inevitable?
Is the end finally near for the U.S. troops in Iraq?
A report by the Associated Press on Monday evening said that the U.S. military is considering reducing the combat role of American troops in Iraq, and shifting their emphasis towards the training of Iraqi forces in 2008. The report claims that the U.S. is laying the groundwork with Turkey and Jordon for the use of their territory to move troops out of Iraq. All this is happening while Washington awaits the latest progress report on Iraq which could be released on September 11 or 12. It is a widely held belief that the 30,000 additional troops sent to Iraq as part of the troop surge will have to be brought home by sometime next year. What is unknown is if President Bush will withdraw any more troops, or continue to stick with the current strategy.
Also on Monday, Sens. Carl Levin (D-MI) and John Warner (R-VA) released a joint statement talking about their latest two day visit to Iraq. "We have seen indications that the surge of additional brigades to Baghdad and its immediate vicinity and the revitalized counter-insurgency strategy being employed have produced tangible results in making several areas of the capital more secure. We are also encouraged by continuing positive results -- in al Anbar Province, from the recent decisions of some of the Sunni tribes to turn against al Qaeda and cooperate with coalition force efforts to kill or capture its adherents. We remain concerned, however, that in the absence of overall "national" political reconciliation, we may be inadvertently helping to create another militia which will have to be dealt with in the future."
They also talked about some of the ongoing problems in Iraq. "We note the continuing improvement in the ability and willingness of the Iraqi Army to conduct combat operations against the insurgents, but remain concerned about the lack of experience of some of its leadership and the lack of critical military capabilities needed before more of its units can operate independently. Chief among these are modern small arms, artillery, combat and lift aviation, explosive ordnance disposal, transportation assets, and engineer capability essential for force protection. Logistics capabilities are virtually non-existent and are a major hindrance to independent action."
Levin and Warner also discussed the political problems in Iraq, "While we believe that the "surge" is having measurable results, and has provided a degree of "breathing space" for Iraqi politicians to make the political compromises which are essential for a political solution in Iraq, we are not optimistic about the prospects for those compromises…. In many meetings with Iraqi political leaders, of all different backgrounds, we told them of the deep impatience of the American people and the Congress with the lack of political progress, impressed upon them that time has run out in that regard, and told them of the urgent need to make the essential compromises. In all of our meetings we witnessed a great deal of apprehension regarding the capabilities of the current Iraqi government to shed its sectarian biases and act in a unifying manner."
Iraq really has become sort a chicken and egg kind of dilemma. On one hand, some believe that political progress can't occur until the security situation is more stable, but on the other hand political progress and a unified government could exert control over the security situation and help put an end to the sectarian violence. The problem is that the United States can not force the political actors to compromise and get along. Many experts have suggested that as long as U.S. troops are in the country dealing with the security situation, there is no motivation for the Iraqi government to act. In other words, as long as the U.S. troops are there, the government knows that it is going to be safe and in power.
Since the Petreaus report is being written by the White House, I have serious doubts that it will be viewed credibly by the American people, or do much to change public opinion on this war. There is little question that the counterinsurgency tactics are having some success, but the big litmus test for this strategy is Baghdad, and I sincerely believe that the troop surge strategy's success will be limited due to the lack of sufficient troops on the ground. The daily reports out of Iraq make it clear there are still major security issues in the country. The Pentagon has been talking about training Iraqi troops seemingly since this war started. I am completely convinced that for a myriad of reasons, a complete U.S. troop withdrawal will not occur until 2009 at the earliest. The political and security situations in Iraq along with the political will of the current administration combine to make the prospects for troop withdrawal very slim.
TPU Radio
This week on TPU Radio we talked about Karl Rove, the Democrats debate on ABC's "This Week", and we played a game of political predictions. If you a little time, please give the show a listen. You can listen by either going to www.blogtalkradio.com/thepoliticaluniverse, or using the media player below.
Clinton gets endorsement of Arkansas Governor
On Monday Hillary Clinton picked up another big Democratic endorsement, this time it was Gov. Mike Beebe announcing his support of the former first lady of Arkansas. "As the first lady of Arkansas, I watched Hillary Clinton stand up for working families by helping to organize Arkansas Advocates for Children and families and leading a taskforce to improve education standards across our great state," Beebe said. "As a Senator I have applauded her work to strengthen the Children's Health Insurance program, which increases coverage for our children in low income and working families."
"Senator Clinton has the right vision for Arkansas and the right vision for America," Beebe continued. "And that's why I know she is the Democrat with the best chance of winning this state in November of 2008." I don't think there is any doubt that Clinton is the Democrat with the best chance of winning the state. In fact, a recent Rasmussen Reports poll of the state showed Clinton winning hypothetical match ups against Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson. The problem for Clinton is that right now she would win in Arkansas but lose in Oregon. She would pick up Florida, but lose Colorado. She is so polarizing that for each state that she swings, she could lose one.
Obama campaigned for Beebe last year, but the governor said that he endorsed Clinton because she has more experience. "I think he'd make a wonderful president at some point, but I think the experience factor suggests that experience lands with Senator Clinton," Beebe said. "I think he needs a little more seasoning, but I think he's a fine man and I think the world of him." Beebe's comments seem to reflect the growing consensus among a majority of Democrats that Obama is still a little green, and not ready to be president yet. As time goes on, I am starting to agree with this assessment. I don't believe that Hillary Clinton is the best person for the job, but to me, Obama should have waited to run. As the weeks go by, and her momentum continues to grow, it is looking more likely that Hillary Clinton will be the 2008 Democratic nominee.
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Karl Rove stepped down this week. He said he wants to spend more time with his loved ones. I think I speak for everyone when I say, Karl Rove has loved ones? I think he's leaving now so he has plenty of time to steal Christmas." --- Craig Ferguson
Daily Show correspondent Samantha Bee, on Bush being on the verge of breaking Ronald Reagan's record number of vacation days: "People said that Reagan's 436 would stand forever, but right now ... this president stands on 423, meaning his record should fall less than two weeks from today. And they said it shouldn't be done. .. And keep in mind, Reagan had a ranch in beautiful Santa Barbara. Bush has spent his time chasing the record in Crawford, Texas, which, by all objective accounts, is a genuine scorched s---thole. ... And don't forget Bush is a war president. The '80s? If Bush had been president then, he might not have even come in at all. ... When the waters from Katrina began to rise, it would have been easy to rush back to Washington. This president stuck it out for two more vacation days. What do you call that? .... Dedication. ... Obviously, I wouldn't say 'actively' pursuing ... but he's aware of it and looking forward to breaking the record and getting that congratulatory call from himself."
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