Justin's Thursday Political News 09.27.07

Posted by Justin Baragona on 09.27.2007

This week, I take a look at the latest polls in the Presidential campaigns and break them down to see how the candidates are looking.

Welcome to another edition of Justin's Thursday Political News. There is actually not that much in terms of news right now, unless you want to read more about the Iranian president's visit, or Sen. Craig trying to withdraw his guilty plea in a desperate attempt to convince Republicans out there that he isn't gay. Since I don't find either of these two stories enthralling enough to try to devote an entire column to, I decided this week to devote today's news report to the latest Presidential campaign polls. As you'll see, I tried to take every poll possible and compare them to create a more comprehensive picture on how the candidates are faring. Let's take a look:


Well, I was unable to get good looking tables in this colun to show the poll results, so I'll go ahead and direct you to the following link at Yahoo news, which is where I got my poll number from anyway: Democratic Nomination



Well, what else can we say right now? Hillary definitely is the choice of Democratic voters if the nominations were taken today. It looks like the only place where any of the other candidates can pick up any kind of momentum is in Iowa. Edwards and Obama are both polling close to even with Hillary there, so perhaps a win by either of them in the Iowa Caucus can provide a boost against the Clinton machine. This is especially true since she is dominating right now in New Hampshire, where she enjoys a 20+ point lead in all of the polls. Nationwide, she has a double digit lead against Obama in all of the polls, and nearly triples Edwards' support.

Outside of these three candidates, nobody has even an outside chance of gaining enough ground to be considered a threat (unless Al Gore all of a sudden decided he wanted to run.) Bill Richardson can only hope he polls high enough in the Iowa Caucus to be considered a legitimate VP candidate. If he can finish third there, he can keep his campaign going and create enough visibility to make that happen. It looks like New Hampshire is going to be a definite win for Clinton, so you may see Obama concentrate more in South Carolina, where he has seen his poll numbers improve and get close to single digits apart from Hillary. Edwards can only hope for a win in Iowa, otherwise his campaign is over as he is just too far away from Clinton nationally to make up that ground without something positive to build on.


Again, I will direct you to Yahoo to see the polls for the Republican side: Republican Nomination



On the other side of the spectrum, the Republican race is pretty much wide open. Technically, Rudy Giuliani is the front runner to grab the nomination. However, Fred Thompson has garnered quite a bit of support in a short time since he officially joined the race. Also, McCain, while having problems with his campaign early, is still sticking around, probably because of name recognition and the fact that he ran in 2000 against Dubya for the nomination. Bringing up the rear a bit is Mitt Romney. Romney, in my opinion, has run a very smart campaign. He is concentrating on the early primary states as opposed to trying to compete nationally with the more recognizable faces of Giuliani, Thompson and McCain. Therefore, while Romney is only polling fourth nationwide, he has taken the lead in early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan. A win or two in these states can definitely create some momentum prior to the Republican convention, and Romney has also been able to fundraise quite a bit of money already.

McCain's poll numbers are probably a bit misleading nationally. As was reported months ago, McCain's campaign spent way too much money early on while not raising nearly the amount they thought they were going to be able to. Thus, McCain has had to strip his campaign bare and basically try to accrue funds anyway he can while ceasing spending for time being. Therefore, while he is a solid third in national polls, he is unable to campaign in any of the primary states right now. That is why we see him placing fifth in Iowa, and fourth or a distant third in most other states. I wouldn't say it is too late for McCain, however, as he still has time to turn it around and he does appeal to moderate voters (despite his more conservative stance lately.) He needs to be able to gain ground and win in one of the early states if he wants his campaign to continue. Based on the polls, he should go ahead and forget about Iowa and New Hampshire and concentrate on South Carolina. Ironically, this is the state where Karl Rove used his dirty tricks to dwindle support for a surging McCain in the 2000 primaries.

Mike Huckabee is still hanging around. If he can do well in the Iowa Caucus, he might be able to snag a VP slot when it is all said and done. He is a social conservative and would definitely help out Giuliani or Romney with the religious right if either of them snagged the nomination. Thompson is polling well nationally, as the divide between him and Giuliani appears to be in the low single digits. However, since his campaign only technically started a few weeks ago, he is not polling all that well in many of the early primary states. He does happen to be in a dead heat with Giuliani in South Carolina, so expect him to concentrate there to see if he can pull that one out, as well as Florida, where he is also polling second at the moment. Giuliani is probably going to give up on Iowa and just concentrate on New Hampshire right off the bat. As it stands, it is a legit 4-man race for the Republican nomination with no clear cut favorite right now, unlike the Democrat race.


Finally, I will direct you to Yahoo one last time to check out the polls for a head-to-head matchup: Head-to-Head



From these polls, it shows that the Democrats are in the lead with whoever they throw out there. However, it does show that as of right now, Giuliani presents a formidable foe, as well as John McCain. Perhaps it is because these two still appeal to moderate voters. Both Romney and Thompson are placing double-digits behind any of the 3 prospective candidates that the Democrats would throw out there. What I do find interesting fro these polls is that John Edwards fares just as well against Giuliani and McCain (sometimes even better) as Obama and Clinton do, yet is even more of a favorite against Thompson and Romney than the other two are. This probably shows the divisive nature of Hillary Clinton more than anything. While she clearly is in the lead for the Democratic nomination and far ahead of Edwards, when you factor in non-affiliated and swing voters, Edwards may be the more appealing candidate who can reach somewhat across party lines, or at least make independent voters want to vote for him.



Well, that is going to do it for me this week. Hope you enjoyed the changeup I threw you this week. Hopefully, there will be more news next week so I don't have to bombard you with more polling news. However, the 2008 campaign is only going to get more intense from here, so I don't think we can entirely escape it. If you are looking for a very educational read, please make sure to check out Brian's latest column. I would also suggest checking out his archives, especially his Fourteen Points of Fascism. I'll be back next week with more news in the realm of politics.