Justin's Thursday Political News 10.25.07
Posted by Justin Baragona on 10.25.2007
This week, I go over the poll numbers for both the Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates.
Welcome to another edition of Justin's Thursday Political News. Sorry for the lack of a column last week, but work got in the way and since they don't pay me to write, I had to make a really tough decision (okay, not really.) This week, I decided to go ahead and take another look at the presidential race and see who's leading, who needs help, and who should just drop out. Unfortunately, this means other stories were jettisoned from this column. There are links below to some of these stories if you want to check them out. However, if you do, make sure you make it back to this site to finish reading this completely enthralling article.
OK, let's start off with the Democrats. Sadly, this has really turned into a one-person race and it seems as if everyone else is just playing for second and the right to be a running mate. Hillary Clinton has put a stranglehold on this race and it seems like a foregone conclusion that she will be the nominee, even though we are months away from the primaries and convention. In the latest national polls, it isn't even close. If you take the seven most notable polls and average them out, Clinton more than doubles the support that her nearest challenger, Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), gets. Her average is 48.4 percent while Obama is averaging 20.6 percent and 2004 Vice Presidential nominee John Edwards is at 12.3 percent. The closest Obama comes any of the polls is the Reuters/Zogby poll, where he is at 25 percent to Clinton's 46 percent. Worse, is that in the Reuters poll, it appears that Obama wasn't taken support away from Clinton as much as we was just taken what little support Edwards had (Edwards only showed up at 9 percent in that poll.) Therefore, it would be safe to say that this is more an aberration than anything else and not a sign of progress that the other polls hadn't picked up on yet. Both CNN and the LA Times have Clinton ahead by more than 30 points and were taken at or after the Reuters poll.
Well, how about the early primary states? Is there any hope for the other candidates there, a place were perhaps momentum can be picked up and built upon? There is a slight glimmer of hope, it seems. Both Obama and Edwards are holding up against Clinton in Iowa. Based on five separate polls, Clinton is holding about a 5 point lead over Obama and just over 7 points on Edwards. Also, Bill Richardson's campaign is holding out hope in that state, as he is within shouting distance. The averages come out as 28.8 percent for Clinton, 23.6 percent for Obama, Edwards at 21.2 percent and Richardson bringing in 8.8 percent. It should be pointed out, though, that the latest poll in that area is from October 14th, so Clinton may have widened her lead in that state just as she has nationwide. I am counting a Newsweek poll in the average that shows Obama with a 4 point lead in the state but is dated 9/26-9/27. Take that out of the equation and Clinton has a much larger lead. Regardless, this is one of the few areas where Clinton has not built up a seemingly insurmountable lead, so I would expect the other candidates to pull out all the stops in an attempt to pull off the upset and ride the momentum.
In the other early states, Clinton has built huge leads. She has 20+ point leads in New Hampshire, Florida and California. She's looking especially strong in Florida, where the latest poll from Quinnipiac shows her with a 34 point lead over Obama. The only other early state besides Iowa where anyone has even a scant chance to approach Clinton is South Carolina. In the most recent poll held there, Obama is 11 points behind Clinton, as she is at 41 percent and he is showing at a solid 30 percent. Sadly for Edwards, he was only showing at 7 percent, which is discouraging as he is from North Carolina and had to be thinking that he would show stronger in the South (he's also getting a weak showing in Florida.) It should be pointed out that this poll, by American Research Group, is from 9/26-9/26 so Clinton may be stronger there now, as she has shown in the more recent polls everywhere else. Basically, Clinton needs to either say something unbelievably stupid (doubtful, as she has been WAY too image conscious this whole time) or her campaign needs to be rocked by a huge scandal. Otherwise, it looks like a Clinton/Obama ticket for the Democrats in '08.
Since we took a look at the Democrats, let us switch over to the Republicans, where it is a lot more competitive and interesting. Nationally, taking an average of eight major polls, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani is the frontrunner. On the average, he is coming in at 28.1 percent, which is 10.1 points higher than runner-up Fred Thompson. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) is hanging in there at 13.5 percent and Mitt Romney is close behind at 12.8 percent. The LA Times poll shows the biggest lead for Giuliani, where he has 17 point lead over Thompson with McCain and Romney right behind the former 'Law & Order' star. However, Rasmussen shows Giuliani with only a 5 percent lead over Thompson (24 percent to 19 percent) with Romney at 16 percent and McCain at 12 percent. So, it is definitely close nationally, but it gets even more interesting when you look at the early primary states.
In Iowa, the polls show Mitt Romney with a significant lead. Taking an average of four different polls, Romney is 11.3 points higher than Fred Thompson. Mike Huckabee is a surprising 3rd at 13.8 percent, while Giuliani is 4th with 13.3 percent. Out of the four polls, Rasmussen shows the closest race, with Romney in the lead with 25 percent, Thompson close behind at 19 percent and Huckabee a very strong 3rd, just one point behind Thompson and 7 lower than the Massachusetts governor. Romney also has a lead built up in New Hampshire, though not nearly as strong. Taking an average of six polls, he leads Giuliani by 4.2 points and John McCain by 8.8 percent. Thompson is showing at a distant 4th and not really gaining in any of the most recent polls. Romney did have a sizable lead in Michigan, but recent polls show not only has his lead been cut down, but Giuliani has now overtaken him.
Fred Thompson's best hope in the early primary states appears to be South Carolina. Polls show it to be virtually a dead heat between him and Giuliani, with McCain and Romney right behind. Thompson has to think that his Southern roots and folksy image help him here, and he has definitely been spending a lot of time campaigning in the state. I would have to say that if he doesn't capture at least South Carolina early on that he will have to seriously consider dropping out as Romney and Giuliani will in all likelihood carry some early states (Giuliani has significant leads in Florida and California.) Also, don't count out McCain just yet. While his campaign took a huge hit earlier this year when he nearly ran out of money, he has been laying low without losing too much support. If he can raise a little more money, he can definitely be a substantial force to be dealt with on the campaign trail.
Well, that is going to do it for me this week. If you are looking for something else to read, go ahead and check out Jason's column. Always informative, always entertaining. I'll be back next week with more news in the realm of politics.
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