411 Politics Fact or Fiction 10.29.07: Week 65
Posted by Brandon Crow on 10.29.2007
Will religion still play a big role in 2008? Should the Republican Party embrace Ron Paul? Will choosing between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama be difficult for black women? Is Bush being hypocritical when he criticizes Russian President Vladimir Putin of expanding presidential powers?
Welcome to Week 65 of Politics: Fact or Fiction. I hope you all enjoyed last week's edition where we had our historic achievement of getting two women readers to participate. Suzanne and Sheryl did a fantastic job and I'm still waiting for more women readers to volunteer!
This week, I bring you two of our zone's outstanding writers, Joe Rivett and Dan Martin. Let's get down to business.
Ding, Ding!
1. Religion and faith will still play a major role in the 2008 presidential election, and may even linger till the 2012 election.
Dan Martin: FACT. It will not be the gay marriage amendment driven religious influence that we saw in 2004, but conservative churches are a key to Republican turn out. The Democrats are courting religious progressives (see Jim Wallis). Some Catholic Bishops have spoken out on Rudy's pro-choice stance. Some voters are hesitant on Mitt Romney over his membership in the LDS Church. Religious beliefs are a major part of many people's lives and points of view. To expect them to not be important factors when people make voting decisions is unrealistic.
Joe Rivett: FICTION. I don't think religion will play a major role. The three central issues of this campaign are Iraq, Terrorism and Health Care. Religion will only play a role if a third party runs a pro life campaign if Rudy is the nominee. I think Americans see that the country is off track and want real solutions instead of debating whether or not Adam and Steve can adopt children.
0 for 1. This is off to a good start for the old Crow…I'm still looking for my first total disagreement column!
2. The Republican Party would do well to embrace, or at least listen to, Ron Paul instead of treating him like some freak show.
Dan Martin: FACT. The Great Depression, New Deal, WWII and Cold War have both major parties seeing a more activist version of government than what Paul preaches. Still, a principled, consistent approach to limited government makes far more sense for the Republican Party than do the pork politics that have characterized the Republican Congress since 1998 or 2000 and the entire Bush presidency. Reclaiming a conservative identity is important for the Republicans even if Paul's version is not the exact formula the GOP will adopt.
Joe Rivett: FICTION. Don't get me wrong, I like Ron Paul, but if he were the nominee, he would get trounced worse than Barry Goldwater. I also don't believe the Republicans treat him like a freak show, they just disagree with him on Iraq. It is Hannity that treats him like a freak show because Hannity loves Rudy. I think Republicans would be wise to take Huckabee more seriously and give the man some money. I think he has the best shot of winning the whole shebang.
0 for 2. Well, it looks like Joe and I agree on whom we'd like to see win the Republican nomination.
Switch!
3. Having to choose between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will be a tough decision for black women voters.
Joe Rivett: FACT. It will be a difficult decision because the ideological differences are very small between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama with Obama being more liberal but not much more. I'm neither black nor female so it is hard to say.
Dan Martin: FACT. I think the Clinton's have so thoroughly locked up the mechanisms of the Democratic Party (smart campaigning by the way and not a criticism), that members of any traditional Democratic voting block are going to have a hard time going against the grain. Give Obama credit for creating new networks via his book tours and internet solicitations, but traditional Democratic strongholds will have to think long and hard. I am not a black woman either and can see Obama as a strong candidate whom any ethnic group would be proud to support, but also see Hillary having strong loyalty from the machines making this a tough choice.
1 for 3. Just curious, do we have to be both black and a woman to truly have an erudite take at this question? Personally, I think it will be a tough choice for black women given the historic ramifications involved.
4. Recent comments by Secretary of State Condi Rice basically paints Russian President Vladmir Putin as somewhat of a dictator. She says, "in any country, if you don't have countervailing institutions, the power of any one president is problematic for democratic development." This criticism from a member of the Bush Administration is totally laughable considering the concerted effort of this president to "expand executive power over surveillance, detention, interrogation and the meaning of new laws (SF Chronicle)."
Joe Rivett: FICTION. Yes, Bush has over reached on executive powers but that is natural during times of war. In addition, the Democrats have not stood up to him by passing the Patriot Act, surveillance, etc. Plus, Bush will be out of power in another year and nobody is even running based on his record. However, Putin could continue to hold power for a very long time and the development of a state-runned media is also bad.
Dan Martin: FICTION. Bush and Cheney have pushed for a stronger presidency. Still, the 06 midterm elections prove that these efforts are hemmed in by both the long standing U.S. Constitution and long standing U.S. political traditions vs. a young constitution and young set of political institutions in Russia. Still, Condi who is an expert on Russia is finally getting some foreign policy work that fits her skill set vs. dealing with the Middle East and Central Asia. Condi has no language expertise or academic back ground for dealing with the Islamic world. She has to be glad Putin is acting up some so she can deal in the comfort zone of her original area of foreign policy training.
2 for 4. We finish this week at 50% again. I seem to get a lot of these.
That wraps up another week of Fact or Fiction. I got a long-time reader who participated in the early, early days of Fact or Fiction wanting to participate again next week. Anyone else?
If you want in, shoot me an email. That's not too difficult to do, is it?
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