A Tainted View 11.25.07: Australian Election Coverage

Posted by Andy Bracken on 11.25.2007

A timeline of one of the defining days in Australian political history.

Election Day: Saturday, 24 November, 2007:

12.30PM WDST- After feeling the effects from a big Friday night, the wife and I finally brave the f-ing hot Pilbara weather to visit the polling place and cast our votes. Luckily, the lines are non-existent and thus the wait is minimal.

I knew the different candidates beforehand, but I am still amazed at how many right-wing parties are on the ballot. Family First, the Christian Democrats, Nationals, Liberals. All have a candidate on the House of Reps ballot. Fuckin' Howard…

Also, the only two parties with a presence outside the polling place are the two majors. This is probably for the best- given my distaste for preference deals in general, my instinct is to tell all of them to go forth and multiply when they try to stuff their "how-to-vote" cards into my hands. I'm not shy about pissing people off, but that doesn't mean that I don't appreciate the chance to offend less people than usual.

I keep the wife waiting for five minutes while I number each of the 54 boxes on the Senate ballot. By doing this, preference deals have no impact on my vote. Take that, party machine!

1.10PM: Well, I'm done for another three years. Sky News is the only one with all-day coverage, so we have perched ourselves on the couch with some wine (for her) and a few bourbons (for me). Depending on how things go, things could get a bit messy. I am not the drinker I used to be. I'm getting old.

That said, things will be pretty dull until the exit polls and the first counted boxes are released. A few drinks could liven the wait up nicely.

One interesting tidbit- the Sky exit polls asked questions relating to general attitudes, rather than voting intent. They have fallen basically along the lines of the respective campaign ads, which tells me that people are basing their ideas on 30-second spots. Put the results aside for a moment, and just reflect on that sad, sad indictment on all of us.

3.24PM: Sky News is reporting a 53-47 two-party preferred (to the ALP) split in the 30 most marginal seats from their exit poll. That would translate to a 25-30 seat majority. Good news so far.

According to the same polls, Bennelong is close but falling to the ALP, and Eden-Monaro is a landslide to the ALP, 58-42. If these results hold up, we are in for a bloodbath. I'm not taking it as a given, but it matches up pretty closely with what I've maintained for quite a while. I can't wait for the first lot of counting to come in.

A national 53-47 split means that a lot of reasonably safe Liberal seats are now in play. The ballot closes in Victoria, NSW and Tasmania in just over half an hour from now.

3.55PM: It's funny- not a single ballot has yet been counted, but the Liberal analyst on the Sky panel seems like he's already given up the ghost. I'll tell you right now- if Rudd gets up, there is going to be an almighty ruckus from within the Liberal party. Watch for everyone to speak fondly of Howard for a few days before everyone starts distancing themselves from his policies.

Similarly, the ALP's Stephen Smith is calling the election as won already. Before the first vote is counted? If he's right, he will have a mighty shit-eating grin for a week. If he's not, he'll be a ghost for a month.

4.00PM: AWESOME! Sky now has a panel consisting of John Hewson, Bob Hawke and Kim Beazley. Hewson is pretty beige, Hawke is a legend, and the bomber is the greatest PM that we will never have. This is a great group to listen to.

The Bomber corrected the host on his claim that all of the panel has tasted electoral defeat. Not Hawke, son. Hawke won every general election he contested.

I'll tell you this once more- as a nation, we are far worse off for not having had a period of government led by Beazley. Fuckin' Howard.

4.24PM: The polls have now closed in NSW, Victoria and Tasmania, South Australia closing in a few minutes and Queensland in just over half an hour. Exit polls are looking like the two Tasmanian seats that unexpectedly went to the Libs in 2004 will probably return to the ALP on the back of Greens preferences.

More reports of dirty tricks have been raised. In North Sydney (Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey's seat), the Greens are alleging that Liberal operatives have been handing out how-to-vote cards purporting to be from the Greens, listing Hockey as their second preference. If this is true, it would suggest that even a safe Liberal seat is worrying the Libs.

4.51PM: Well, with the first boxes counted, Bennelong is looking incredibly shaky. Howard can still come back, but it is definitely not looking good for him.

That is a truly historic suggestion. Howard losing his seat would be speak volumes.

5.11PM: Well, Lindsay is gone, Bass and Braddon are all-but-gone on the Greens' preferences, and the ALP is well on their way. Howard is behind McKew on primary votes with 3% counted, with the margin extending under preferences. Dobell is an ALP gain, too.

We still haven't had any of the major candidates show their faces yet. That'll be when you know which way the winds are blowing.

5.29PM: After flicking over to the ABC coverage, I nearly soil my trousers. The TV telecast is calling 58 seats to the coalition, with 37 to the ALP, while the web coverage is calling the reverse. Somebody let the work experience kid into control room, I would suggest.

The website is the correct one, by the way.

5.31PM: ABC has called Bennelong for the ALP. They have also called a total of ten ALP gains, on a national swing of about 5.5%, with Queensland, NT and WA still to come. Queensland will decide this election- this could get very interesting, very quickly.

6.16PM: Man, how good is Antony Green. For as long as I can remember, no one is more accurate and more methodical than this guy. He hasn't the slightest interest in being trendy or a showman- he just seems to want to make the correct calls before anyone else, which he has a habit of doing.

6.32PM: The ABC has just called Kalgoorlie as an ALP gain, against pretty much everyone's expectations. Well, everyone but one…

(I told you that there would be some gloating…)

7.15PM: Most of the major analysts have called the election for Labor. Projections are looking like 82-86 seats for the ALP.

Dammit. Turns out the graphic that called Kalgoorlie as a Labor gain was based on very few counted votes. It has slid back into undecided territory. So much for my astute predictive ability.

7.26 PM: Maxine McKew comes out looking like she's going to claim Bennelong, and then after going on for ten minutes, she merely announces that it is too close to call. Hmmmm. You don't think she might have a bit of an idea of how to get some media attention, do you?

She may as well call it. Even if Howard does scrape in, it is looking like he'll lose government and therefore retire from parliament. The ALP will blitz any by-election. Within this term, Bennelong will fall to the ALP for the first time. Phenomenal.

7.56PM: Results aside, whoever decided to put a crowd of fucking monkeys in the tally room should be shot. I'm all for the cheering and histrionics at the various party functions, but some of us are trying to hear some results. Simmer down, idiots.

Apparently, the gloriously inane Mel and Kochie from Channel 7 are responsible for riling up the yokels in the tally room. Mel and Kochie- proof that you can form a fine career from pandering to the brainless. They make me cringe, but they are the very best at what they do, and you have to give them their due.

8.01PM: The Liberal Senator Mitch Fifield is being interviewed. I am strangely distracted by the enormous f-ing grooves in his forehead. He makes Abdullah the Butcher look like a baby's arse. Very weird.

For those of you following along, it is during this interview that I have finally decided that I have had a little too much to drink. A forehead like that'll make you reassess matters.

8.06PM: My F-ing God. Kerry O'Brien has just reported that Howard has called Rudd to concede defeat, and will make a public speech shortly. I am literally hard right now.

8.08PM: Nick Minchin like he's just walked in on his missus and a Spanish landscape gardener in a compromising position. He sort of looks sick inside, with a side of horror and a smattering of disbelief. It is truly a joy to behold.

Heh. Watching Minchin eulogise this government is one of the most gratifying experiences you could imagine. There is nobody in federal parliament that I hold in greater contempt than this guy. To actually get to watch him have to call both the defeat of his hero and the utter destruction of any possible vindication of the ideology that he based his career around is, quite simply, a treat.

8.12PM: Luke Simpkins is appearing, and looks like he'll get up in Cowan. Eh- I have nothing against Luke Simpkins. He seems like a decent enough candidate, and it is yet to be seen to which ideology he will sell his allegiance.

One tip, though: Luke, if you are going to appear on national TV to accept victory in an election to our federal parliament, might I suggest you take a second to put on a f-ing shirt and tie, rather than a cheapo blue T-shirt with your name on it. No one is a bigger fan of the casual look than I, but there's a time and place, y'know?

8.15PM: The swing in WA has contradicted the rest of the country. Swan and Cowan are looking very shaky. Kalgoorlie is now a very likely Liberal retain. Aside from the general swing, my predictions suck.

F-Me. I thought that 81 seats would have been a big win. 85-88 is just unbelievable. This swing is hitting home in a big way.

8.26PM: Costello has just made his speech, essentially conceding defeat. He made VERY sure to explain how he will achieve a swing in his seat against the trend. He wants to try and solidify himself as the next leader.

Looking at him right now, I think it has just sunk in that he will never be the Prime Minister of this country. Even if he leads the opposition in the immediate future, there is no way that he will be able to hold the leadership in three years, especially if there is the slightest chance that the Libs might get up. He is too old to come back if he is deposed, and he is just not liked enough to have the slightest chance of leading a united party.

He knows that his career has now peaked, and that it is all downhill from here. Let's see whether he is quite as smarmy when the parliament next sits…

8.29PM: HA! They have just cut away from Costello mid-sentence to go live to Howard. Always the bridesmaid, Pete…

8.30PM: I have been waiting for this for years. Howard is about to concede.

8.32PM: He seems very upbeat about things. Actually, very classy so far. Kudos.

8.34PM: Howard: "We've bequeathed to him a nation that is stronger and prouder and more prosperous than it was 11-½ years ago." Bequeathed? You didn't "bequeath" anything. You tried to hang on to it with every trick in your armoury, and the public picked you up by the scruff of the neck and tossed you out on your arse.

You didn't gracefully withdraw- you were unceremoniously dumped. Big, BIG difference.

And that's before I get into this "stronger, prouder and more prosperous" stuff. That I'll deal with another day.

8.35PM: Howard: "Peter is the future of the party". Heh. The future with Peter at the helm can be measured in nanoseconds.

While I'm thinking about it, I guess that now we get to sit and wait on how many of the senior coalition ministers decide to retire. There are a few that would know that they are far past trying to regain government again, so do they jump soon and give them a chance or do they hang around and ride the gravy train for another few years?

Ruddock is the obvious one, if Costello gets dumped as leader then I would suggest that he'd follow. Possibly Wilson Tuckey? Actually, he'd probably ride that train until the last stop.

Mal Brough should think himself unlucky. He's performed pretty well since getting to the front bench, but the swing against him was large and furious. I wouldn't be surprised to see him running again, whether it be for state or federal parliament.

8.37PM: Howard: "I accept full responsibility for the defeat." Heh. Good. Now fuck off.

8.43PM: Here‘s one for the books: Howard thinks that "public service is the greatest form of service on can perform". I would suggest that few soldiers who are spending an interesting year sweating balls in an Afghani desert might politely disagree.

8.45PM: Minchin looks like he's close to tears while he talks about the chances of Howard losing his seat as well. He just screams blind devotion.

8.58PM: Anna Bligh is just about to introduce Kevin Rudd's victory speech.. This is a monumental time in our history.

Seriously, this feels strangely surreal. Howard has been so electorally cunning, imagining him suffering such a massive defeat seemed impossible. I'll tell you right now- John Howard is considered one of the most tenacious political operatives in Australian history. The capital that Rudd will have, as the man who finally defeated Howard, is immeasurable.

8.59PM: Starts with the usual gracious remarks about Howard. Obligatory empty platitudes. The guy damaged the very fibre of this country, and gave us a range of problems that he refused to even acknowledge, let alone attempt to fix.

I realise that the niceties are supposed to foster unity after the election, but we have very little to thank Howard for. Very little.

9.03PM: Listening to Rudd talk, I only have one thought: now Rudd gets to be accountable to us. He has promised a lot, and he'd better deliver.

Rudd has the chance to be the Prime Minister that Howard could never be. He now gets to convince me of something that will take a LOT of convincing- the thought that Beazley would have been better.

That's my challenge to Kevin Rudd. Prove to me that the ALP was right, not just for the party, but for the people.

9.34PM: Well, that's everything done and dusted. There are a few seats still to be decided, but nothing that is overly important. The election has been won by the ALP, with a pretty big majority- probably somewhere in the vicinity of 15-20 seats. A few ministers, including Mal Brough, Chris Pyne, Gary Nairn and Jim Lloyd, are all either gone or on the cusp of going.

The real story of the night is Bennelong. It is still a bit close to declare, but it is looking like it will be very tough for Howard to retain. His send off will be incredibly profound if he becomes only the second PM to lose his seat. That's what they call "repudiation", my friends.

10.38PM: The blood letting has already begun. Wilson Tuckey, the returned Liberal member for O'Connor, was quoted by ABC news thusly:

"I pointed out that there was no reason why you couldn't change a leader at the last moment,"

"I'll leave it to the public to judge whether I'm the village idiot or whether or not I'm the person who tried to convince my colleagues what the problem was."

1.18AM: Well, the expected margin is looking like being 86 seats to the ALP, 52 to the Libs, 10 to the Nationals and 2 independents. By any measure, that is a comprehensive defeat.

With the results looking pretty much confirmed, let's see how close I got, seat by seat.

The Seats that I predicted correctly to fall (my predictions in italics):

KINGSTON (previously LIB, NSW) ALP Gain Result: ALP Gain
BONNER (LIB, QLD) ALP Gain Result: ALP Gain
WAKEFIELD (LIB, SA) ALP Gain Result: ALP Gain
PARRAMATA (LIB, NSW) ALP Gain Result: ALP Gain
MAKIN (LIB, SA) ALP Gain Result: ALP Gain
BRADDON (LIB, Tas) ALP Gain Result: ALP Gain
HASLUCK (LIB, WA) ALP Gain Result: ALP Gain
BASS (LIB, Tas) ALP Gain Result: ALP Gain
MORETON (LIB, QLD) ALP Gain Result: ALP Gain
SOLOMON (CLP, NT) ALP Gain Result: Possible ALP Gain
LINDSAY (LIB, NSW) ALP Gain Result: ALP Gain
EDEN-MONARO (LIB, NSW) ALP Gain Result: ALP Gain
DOBELL (LIB, NSW) ALP Gain Result: ALP Gain
DEAKIN (LIB, Vic) ALP Gain Result: ALP Gain
CORANGAMITE (LIB, Vic) ALP Gain Result: ALP Gain
PAGE (NAT, NSW) ALP Gain Result: ALP Gain
BLAIR (LIB, QLD) ALP Gain Result: ALP Gain
HERBERT (LIB, NSW) ALP Gain Result: Possible ALP Gain
COWAN (ALP, WA) LIB Gain Result: LIB Gain

The electorates that I predicted to fall, but were retained:

STIRLING (LIB, WA) ALP Gain Result: LIB Retain

Stirling was retained despite a small swing to the ALP. WA went completely against the rest of the country, delivering the one favourable battleground for the Libs.

WENTWORTH (LIB, WA) ALP Gain Result: LIB Retain

How Wentworth didn't fall, after every opinion poll, after a massive local environmental campaign and after an exit poll that suggested a loss- I'll never know. Someone sold his soul to the devil to pull this one out. With a swing towards him against the backdrop of a massive statewide swing against the Libs, he has the leadership on the platter whenever he decides to take it.

LA TROBE (LIB, Vic) ALP Gain Result: Possible LIB Retain

Still might fall.

KALGOORLIE (LIB, WA) ALP Gain Result: LIB Retain

Big disappointment. I really thought that Kalgoorlie was primed to fall, but is looking pretty much impossible. Should the mining sector keep growing, it will probably be vulnerable in 2010.

And the others that fell, but I didn't predict:

BENNELONG (LIB, NSW) LIB Retain Result: ALP Gain

The numbers always looked like it could be at risk, but I just couldn't imagine Howard's name brand not getting him over the line. In reality, that brand shrunk down to almost nothing against a candidate that ingeniously made use of campaign tactics that she knew that Howard wouldn't be able to match- the good old-fashioned door knock.

The people of Bennelong delivered a message that will resonate for a long time. They made Howard into a historical punch line, and killed whatever legacy he wanted to leave. Bravo.

BOWMAN (LIB, QLD) LIB Retain Result: Possible ALP Gain
SWAN (LAB, WA) ALP Retain Result: Possible LIB Gain

Both are pretty much line ball. Swan took days to decided in 2004, and is looking like being the same this year.

DAWSON (NAT, QLD) NAT Retain Result: ALP Gain
DICKSON (LIB, QLD) LIB Retain Result: ALP Gain
FLYNN (NAT, QLD) NAT Retain Result: ALP Gain
FORDE (LIB, QLD) LIB Retain Result: ALP Gain
LEICHARDT (LIB, QLD) LIB Retain Result: ALP Gain
LONGMAN (LIB, QLD) LIB Retain Result: ALP Gain
PETRIE (LIB, QLD) LIB Retain Result: ALP Gain

The results from these seven seats are nothing short of amazing. Each had swings to the ALP of between 9% and 15%. No one thought that any seat would experience a 15% swing, particularly in the case of Longman, which was the seat of a senior sitting cabinet minister. Completely unexpected.

ROBERTSON (LIB, NSW) LIB Retain Result: ALP Gain

A strange seat. The Labor candidate is a former Senator with a coupe of pretty nasty pre-selection battles in her past, and the sitting member was in the outer ministry. This seat was won at the start of Howard's term, and now falls at it's end.

So, from the looks of things, I got 15 wrong. Not great, but far from disgraceful. I did pick 19 of the changes, though.

The national two-party preferred is likely to sit around 53.5-46.5, which is about line-ball with my 53-47 prediction. The swing definitely played out in far more seats than I could have expected.

So, that was election day for me. I'll be back in a few days with some detailed analysis of the results and subsequent fallout, but right now I have some celebrating to do. ‘Til then, take care.

Bracken.