The Political Universe 11.27.07: Clinton Trails Top Republicans in New Poll
Posted by Jason Easley on 11.27.2007
A new poll revealed some bad news for Hillary Clinton, as she now trails each of the top five Republican candidates in hypothetical general election match ups. 411's Jason Easley tells you what this poll means for the somewhat struggling Democratic frontrunner. Also, Sen. Trent Lott announced his retirement for the Senate yesterday. What his departure means for the future of the GOP....
Clinton trails top Republicans in new poll
On a day when Dick Cheney's irregular heartbeat stole all the headlines away from the Bush administration's last gasp hope at a positive legacy Middle East summit, a new poll came out that you might have missed. A new Zogby International Interactive survey revealed that Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton now trails the top five Republican candidates in hypothetical 2008 general election match ups. Clinton now trails both Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, 43%-40%. She trails Fred Thompson 44%-40%. She trails John McCain 42%-38%. Mike Huckabee had the best showing of all the Republicans. He leads Clinton 44%-39%.
The story is completely different for Sen. Barack Obama. In the poll, Obama leads all of the top Republicans. Obama leads Giuliani 46%-41%, and Romney 46%-40%. He leads McCain 45%-38%, Thompson 47%-40%, and Huckabee 46%-40%. The poll gets even more interesting when John Edwards is matched up with the Republicans. Edwards is perceived to be the weakest of the top three Democrats, but he defeats four of the top Republicans, and is tied with the fifth. The tie is between Edwards and McCain, who each get 42% support. Edwards leads Giuliani 44%-43%, and Romney 44%-42%. He leads Huckabee 43%-42%, and Thompson 45%-42%.
Gee, this poll puts a dent in the Clinton argument that she is the only Democrat who can beat the Republicans next November. This argument has consistently been countered by poll numbers that show Clinton as the weakest of the top three Democrats in general election match ups, but yet Clinton is still out there on the campaign trail trying to convince us that she and her husband are both made out of the same political Teflon. The problem for Hillary Clinton remains that her candidacy sounds better in theory than she does on the campaign trail.
The idea that a candidate who is solidly disliked by 50% or more of the American electorate would somehow be the most electable defies all logic and common sense. The reality is that Obama or Edwards would be better general election candidates than Clinton. No matter how much the Clinton campaign tries to represent themselves as agents of change, it really feels like they are a nostalgia tour trying to revive the good old days of her husband's presidency in the hearts and minds of Democratic voters. Clinton is the safe choice for Democratic voters, but the price for this security is a general election campaign that is certain to be both close and contentious.
Certainly, the Clinton campaign will assert that her opponents' negative campaigning is to blame for her drop in the polls. To some degree this might true, but probably the reason is that we are a little more than a month away from the first primaries and voters are starting to pay attention. Clinton has tried to run a centrist campaign that is short on details about issues. This strategy might work in a short campaign, but in one as long as the 2008 presidential race, eventually Clinton will have to take a stand. I think Clinton is still the likely Democratic nominee, but whether or not she wins or loses the general election, I will continue to believe that the Democrats could have selected a better candidate.
Trent Lott announces Senate retirement
On Monday the second ranking Republican in the Senate, Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) announced that he will be retiring at the end of the year. "So I am announcing today that I will be retiring from the Senate by the end of the year. It's not effective today. I want to collaborate and consult with our governor, state officials, and with federal officials, and I want to continue to serve in my position as whip in the Senate right to the end of the session and try to be helpful there as much as I can." Lott made it clear during his announcement that he and his wife felt that the time was right to retire.
Lott also dispelled the idea that his retirement is health related. "Let me make it clear, there are no problems. I feel fine. I may look my 66 years, but I honestly feel good. And I get up every day believing that I can maybe have a positive effect on what we do in the Senate. I like being a happy warrior. I don't like some of the negativism that we're dealing with now, but that's life and that's the role, I guess, of politics sometime." Lott did say that he thought it was time for his state to elect a younger person. "I do think that it's time for Mississippi to elect a new person, a younger person. We have had a very good history in Mississippi of electing young people to office, usually in their forties, and them staying there 20, 30, 40 years. It's served us well."
Trent Lott will always be remembered remarks made at Strom Thurmond's 100th birthday party in 2002. Thurmond ran in 1948 as a Dixiecrat presidential candidate who advocated the continued segregation of the South. At the birthday party Lott said, "I want to say this about my state: When Strom Thurmond ran for president, we voted for him. We're proud of it. And if the rest of the country had followed our lead, we wouldn't have had all these problems over all these years." These comments cost him his position as majority leader, and forced him to rehabilitate his image over the past five years. Mississippi governor Haley Barbour will appoint a Republican replacement for Lott, a special election will be held next November to determine who will serve the rest of his term.
There are a few other reasons why Lott would choose now to retire. First, he sees the political writing on the wall. Democrats are poised to expand their majority in 2008, and the prospect of finishing out the remaining five years of his term in the minority would not be very appealing to the 66 year old Lott. Secondly, the Senate passed new ethics rules that require former members to sit out a waiting period before they are allowed to work as lobbyists. By retiring this year Lott avoids the new rules, and can go to work in a lucrative lobbying position right away.
Reports have been floating around for a couple of years now that Lott was thinking about retirement, so his announcement isn't a complete surprise. One thing that has become abundantly clear is that the Republican Party is suffering from a lack of fresh blood and ideas. As these old Republicans continue to retire, it presents an opportunity for the party to rebuild itself. Losing elections opened the door for Democrats to rebuild their party and draft better candidates. This process is a part of the natural life cycle of a political party. As Republican fortunes continue to decline, you can expect more of the old guard to step down.
That's it for me today. I'll probably be back with Republican YouTube debate coverage tomorrow night. Until then, have a good one.
The writers are still on strike so our best of late night political jokes topic is Rudy Giuliani.
"Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani says he's going to try to follow Ronald Reagan's 11th commandment that a Republican should never attack another Republican. Let's hope he has better luck with the 11th commandment than he did with the 7th commandment." --Jay Leno
"Last week during a speech to the NRA, Rudy Giuliani was interrupted by a cell phone call, which he stopped his speech to answer. Giuliani then told the audience, 'That was my wife reminding me to pick up some milk at the 9-Eleven.'" --Seth Meyers
"Iran's president ... wanted to lay a wreath at Ground Zero, but his critics said, 'No, no. You are trying to exploit Ground Zero for political gain, and that is Rudy Giuliani's job.'" --Bill Maher
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