What’s Next for the U.S. and Pakistan?

Posted by Jason Easley on 12.27.2007

Bhutto is dead and the Bush administration is left with an ally in turmoil.

The assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto has once again called into question the soundness of the Bush administration's decision to rely so heavily on Pakistan as their number one ally in the so called war on terror. The government of Pervez Musharraf has been unstable and teetering on the brink of collapse for years. National instability there can be linked to three causes. First is the pro-democracy movement. Second, are Islamic fundamentalists who have targeted the current regime because of its relationship with the United States, and third are the Taliban who have taken up residence in Pakistan's northern tribal territories along the Afghanistan border.

Many of Bhutto's supporters are already blaming Musharraf for her death. Their charges range from his being behind the attack, to not providing enough security for Bhutto since she returned to Pakistan. President Bush wants to frame her death in the context of the struggle between Islamic fundamentalism and democracy. Bush said today, "The United States strongly condemns this cowardly act by murderous extremists who are trying to undermine Pakistan's democracy." The problem with Bush's statement is that Pakistan isn't a democracy, and my guess is that her death wasn't about democracy.

It is more likely that whoever carried out this attack did so to destabilize the country enough in the hopes that the unpopular Musharraff would be overthrown, and the equally unpopular relationship with the United States would be ended. What one has to remember is that the nexus of power in Pakistan doesn't actually rest with Musharraf. It rests with the nation's military and intelligence organizations. Bhutto had already believed that the attack against her convoy when she returned from exile was known of and aided by members of the government's agencies and intelligence service. It has long been speculated by other foreign governments that Pakistan's military and intelligence organizations have been infiltrated by Bin Laden and al-Qaeda sympathizers.

The big question for the United States is what to do about Pakistan? Bhutto represented the best hope for stabilization and democracy in the country. The best and only option, for the U.S. might be to continue to support the current regime. The Bush administration climbed in bed with Pakistan, and now they are stuck with a partner that is growing more unstable by the day, and who, as an added bonus, also possesses 70-80 nuclear weapons. The Bush administration has put America in a position where it now must prop up three governments in the region. Their Middle Eastern policy was constructed on false hopes and deliberate ignorance of history, culture, and fact. Bhutto is dead. Pakistan is teetering, and the Bush administration is once again in the familiar position of having no clue what to do next.