411's 2008 Political Predictions Roundtable

Posted by Jason Easley on 01.02.2008

Join the guys from 411 Politics as they offer up their thoughts on what 2008 has in store for us.

1). Who will win the Democratic nomination?

Dan Martin: Somehow I see Barak Obama overcoming what had looked like an inevitable march toward the nomination by Hillary Clinton. If Obama wins all 3 of the media's favored early states I think most Dems will have to realize Hillary is not that electable.

Enrique: Hillary has long been my favorite to win the Dem nomination and presidency, Obama's recent good fortune notwithstanding. She still has a whole lot of money, and she's not burdened by any strong principles. Although, it would be nice if Barack won the nomination, I believe the Dem nominee wins the presidency in 2008 no matter who the GOP fields, and Barack's election would do us the favor of ending racism in America forever, so I'm not-so-secretly rooting for him. But if you put a gun to my head, I think Hillary's money and wonkishness beats Barack's airheaded idealism.

Joe Rivett: Hillary Clinton will win the nomination because old people vote at a higher proportion than young people. Maybe next time Mr. Obama.

Brian McLain: Regardless of Obama's recent attractiveness to the public, it will not be enough to pull off the win against Hillary. Edwards has long been left in the dust and all others will simply be eating Edward's second hand dust. This will become a two person race very quickly with Hillary claiming victory in the Southern states.

Jason Easley: Honestly, I think this race is fairly wide open. With the Hillary train derailing, I think Obama could really win the nomination. If Clinton is the nominee, it wouldn't surprise me if she a Jim Webb or Brian Schweitzer as her running mate. If Obama is the nominee, he will look at Schweitzer, but even more so, Democrats with experience. Don't be too surprised if Bill Richardson and Wesley Clark's names pop up.

2). Who will win the Republican nomination?

Dan Martin: Wow hard to say. Mike Huckabee does not have enough money to counter attacks if he becomes a front runner. Rudy is just not in sync with enough of the base. Romney is not being accepted. Unlike the Dems, the GOP does award a lot of winner take all states when it comes to delegates and this helps avoid a protracted primary. In a protracted race, money and name recognition go along way so I see either Ruddy or McCain taking it but since I have to choose, I am taking Rudy as the nominee and a lot of internal strife over his positions following.

Enrique: Dick Cheney. When it happens, act surprised.

Joe Rivett: Who knows? Anyone can take it but at this point I am going to pick Fred Thompson. Yes, I know I bash him all of the time. However, he doesn't have any major skeletons in his closet and he is the most consistent conservative running so that should win you a primary, right? Huckabee is hated by the elites. Rudy does stupid things like answering his cell phone at a NRA speech. McCain is too maverick for a conservative. Mitt offers nothing noteworthy and his nickname is Flipper, faster than lightning. So what that Fred Thompson is boring... that didn't stop Republicans from nominating Bob Dole.

Brian McLain: My heart says Ron Paul, however my head is a cold, cruel bastard of my dreams and says that Giuliani will be the winner of the Republican nomination. The GOP will even make the race close to make it look legit too…oops, did I say that out loud? Mr. 9-11's primary strategy of lying through his teeth and capitalizing on the deaths of hundreds of first responders, the injury and terminal illness of others, and those near 3000 that lost their lives for political and financial gain will somehow win the hearts and minds of Diebold…I mean the GOP voters and the rest will be history. He's not getting anywhere near first in Iowa though; I can at least guarantee that.

Jason Easley: This one actually isn't as much of a brain teaser as my fellow panelists think. The Republicans have found one of their own to carry their banner and he is Mike Huckabee. I wouldn't be surprised if followed the George W. Bush model and picked a GOP elder statesman as his running mate. A guy like John McCain comes to mind immediately.

3). Who will be the next president of the United States?

Dan Martin: I think if Rudy is the GOP nominee a 3rd party pro-life candidate will emerge and the Dems will take the White House easily. If Romney is the nominee, many Evangelicals will stay home or vote 3rd party. If Hillary is the Dem nominee she has high negatives and a ceiling of popularity. Hillary can only win if Ruddy or Romney splinter the GOP, but Hillary might be enough to cause unity where disunity is brewing. Nevertheless, if Obama, Edwards or even Richardson are the Dem nominee they will have the inside track for the presidency. Also, immigrants will become the Willie Horton of this election, but given that 16 million Hispanics are citizens and eligible to vote, such a strategy could cost the GOP in 2008 and will cost the GOP beyond because the fastest growing et of legal citizens is Hispanic. Not a good group to sling mud at right?

Enrique: As I said above, I believe the Dems win the presidency in 2008. After witnessing GOP governance 2001-2006, which was basically Jesus-flavored socialism with a side order of amnesty for illegal immigrants, I think many conservatives are going to stay home in November 2008 out of spite. On the other hand, Democrat/lefty voters are motivated and anxious to reclaim their rightful status as the High Priests of Big Government, and good for them. I wish them the best.

Joe Rivett: If McCain wins the nomination he will but since he won't I'll pick Hillary. Her Vice President will be Evan Bayh as she needs to win the middle.

Brian McLain: For the love of God I hope I'm wrong, however I can't help but expect that Hitlery…I mean Hillary will win the presidency, as the naïve Democratic children dance along behind the shrieking shrills of her pipe of change, hope and peace. Alas, it is all a masquerade, as she has called for the nuking of Iran on a few occasions, voted for every civil liberty killing and war funding legislation placed on her table including the PATRIOT Act, and will prove to be nothing more than another Bush in a dress. But hell, why not complete the damn dynasty, you frickin' idiots?

What's another 8 years of Bush/Clinton tyrannical rule, oh gullible ones? Ultimately, this race will turn out to be a Rudy vs. Hillary showdown, with Rudy playing the part of Kerry this year. However, Rudy won't come as close as Kerry did. Hillary has too much on her side to lose this one and we will have a perfect example to point to when somebody asks "Why didn't we have a female president for over 250 years?" Hillary! That's why! You can say…she isn't really my favorite person in the whole world. I have nothing against a female president, really…but can we pick somebody other than this fascist, lying piece of trash power whore?

Jason Easley: The Democrat will win. Obama will rout the Republican nominee, but Hillary will have to sweat it out. Ohio will be the state to put her over the top.

4). Give us one international prediction for 2008

Dan Martin: Afghanistan and Pakistan will become the dominant foreign policy concern even as the U.S. has massive resources committed elsewhere. Russia will keep rising as well.

Enrique: Pakistan collapses in civil strife and becomes a failed state. Extremist elements of Pakistan, operating on their own, attack targets within India. India launches incursions into Pakistan to repel the radicals. Islamists gain control of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. While trying to launch a nuke into India, they get their figures wrong, and accidentally annihilate a medium-sized city in China. China launches a full-scale invasion of Pakistan, blatantly committing war crimes as they indiscriminately destroy infrastructure and massacre civilians. NATO forces and the Afghan government face a humanitarian crisis as hundreds of thousands of refugees stream across the border into Afghanistan.

A resurgent Taliban launches new attacks, taking and holding territory as far as the outskirts of Jalalabad. Faced with mounting casualties, the NATO alliance in Afghanistan collapses and the U.S. is compelled to devote more troops to Afghanistan. Kim Jong-Il of North Korea, who had been biding his time, launches a nuke at South Korea, but fortunately it's a dud. However, South Korea and its ally the U.S. are forced to respond with surgical strikes against North Korea. As North Korea destabilizes, China devotes military resources to the NK border. As an additional "security measure," China invades and occupies Taiwan. With the U.S. military and diplomatic corps stretched to its absolute limit, Prime Minister Maliki declares martial law in Iraq, reacting to renewed terrorist attacks by Sunni insurgents. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin grins mischievously. A bunch more bad shit happens going into 2009, but this prediction only covers 2008. Or maybe none of that stuff happens. I'm so baked right now, dude…

Joe Rivett: The US will kick butt in the Olympics!

Brian McLain: The United States or one of its allies will invade Iran before the end of 2008.

Jason Easley: Russia will continue its march away from democracy. Iran and N. Korea will both ignore U.S pressure about their weapons programs, and the Bush administration will do nothing about it. Pakistan won't be as big of an issue as it looks right now, and oil prices will continue to increase for no good reason.

5). What does 2008 hold for Iraq?

Dan Martin: A stalemate if the surge levels remain in place and if the cooperation between former foes remains. I think the Jihadists are ok with this because their entire goal as far as I can tell is to bleed the U.S. dry of resources and will power so that the U.S. does not remain in the position of being a global hegemony.

Enrique: The Iraqi economy explodes, and unemployment goes into sharp decline. The booming economy creates enough breathing room that Shi'ite nationalists forge an uneasy alliance with their Sunni counterparts, and begin to integrate Sunnis into the Iraqi Army and police. The U.S. Congress, buoyed by the ongoing progress, continues to fund the American mission in Iraq. In a stunning bit of good fortune, an internet video surfaces of a nude Moqtada al-Sadr frolicking with several young boys. The humiliation of this video is so great that al-Sadr loses Iran's patronage, and is forced to leave Iraq . His followers, disaffected by the hypocrisy of their once-revered leader, abandon their extremism and find legitimate employment. By the end of 2008, the U.S. establishes a timetable to withdraw combat troops, with the aim of leaving behind only a modest garrison force to conduct counter-terrorist operations. You read it here first.

Joe Rivett: Less violence and a little more political progress. Still not worth the cost.

Brian McLain: The same as it's held for last 5 years: Fighting, death, destruction, broken promises and big money for big defense contractors. I will say the moronic idea of separating the country into three ethnic states would likely come to pass in 2008, however…likely getting rid of sectarian violence and simply replacing it with full blown civil war.

Jason Easley: The insurgents will wait out the U.S. troop surge, then return with a vengeance in 2008. Violence will increase in Iraq as the year goes on. There will be no political progress, because the politicians have no incentive to agree on anything while the U.S. is there to handle everything. In short, this will be another year of wheel spinning in Iraq.

6). Do you have a general prediction for 2008?

Dan Martin: Aside from tons of campaign commercials (soft and hard money ads), I think immigrants will be attacked politically, the U.S. economy will have some troubling signs and in general things will get at least a bit darker before prospects of improvement on a myriad of issues materialize. All in all it should be a frustrating year from the standpoint of economic troubles, political gridlock, international instability, and ecological degradation. Wish I had a better gut feeling on this, but Happy New Year!

Enrique: Milwaukee Brewers make the playoffs. Suck it, Cubs.

Joe Rivett: If Bloomberg runs, he has a serious shot of winning the presidency. And no, Ron Paul will not run as an independent but it would be entertaining and enlightening if he did.

Brian McLain: Should and when Giuliani get the nomination, he will pick Gov. Rick Perry of Texas to run with. Should and when Hillary win, she will choose Obama as a running mate. All other predictions I have are too damn depressing and best detailed in segments to help preserve the nation's Prozac supply.

Jason Easley: The writers' strike will wipe out the rest of the 2007-2008 TV season, and America will realize that life goes on without TV. The Patriots will realize too late that a running game helps teams win playoff games in the middle of winter. The Celtics won't win the NBA title, because the East really is that bad. The Penguins won't win the Stanley Cup, but will win a playoff series, and OJ Trial 2 will become the most popular reality series on television.