What to Watch for During the Iowa Caucuses

Posted by Jason Easley on 01.02.2008

Here are three things to keep an eye on tomorrow night in Iowa.

One the sage bits of Western philosophy to be handed down from generation to generation in the 20th Century was the quote, "Never make predictions, especially about the future."* Yet repeatedly, many of us who write and talk about politics can't resist making predictions. I too, will be making predictions about the Iowa Caucuses, just not today. For those of you who will be following the action tomorrow night, here are three trends that I think will be worth following.

1). Age

Hillary Clinton's message of experience, and John Edwards's courting of Democratic Party regulars in the state, are each an appeal to older voters. There was a generational undertone to the Democratic campaign all through 2007, and you can expect it to continue tomorrow night. Obama's campaign has been based on youth, while Clinton has been touting her experience. Obama needs a young and motivated turnout to push him to victory on Thursday night. If only the party regulars show up, Clinton and Edwards will each fare well. On the GOP side all the candidates skew older, except Ron Paul. However, Paul seems to be putting more of his efforts into New Hampshire and South Carolina. Despite this, Dr. Paul will still probably finish fourth or fifth in the state.

2). Independents

While everyone is focused on the roll of Independents in New Hampshire, they seem to be overlooking the role that unaffiliated voters will play in Iowa. Interestingly, the cross party battle for the independent vote is centered on Barack Obama, Ron Paul, and Mike Huckabee. The base of Obama's support in Iowa is among the young and independent. The latest Des Moines Register poll showed that Obama is pulling 72% of his support from first time caucus goers, and 39% of his support comes from independents. This is why the Obama campaign is launching a massive get out the vote effort in the state.

If these independents show up in mass for Obama, he will be celebrating a victory on Thursday night. Among independents who will caucus with the GOP, Mike Huckabee is leading Ron Paul 29%-16%. It is important to point out that independents are just like the voters in the other two parties. They have leanings too. It would seem that conservative independents in Iowa tilt more towards social conservatism than the Libertarian fiscal conservatism of Ron Paul. Huckabee also has cultivated an outsider image, and if he catches fire nationally, he and Paul could end up competing for independent conservative voters across the country.

3). The God Vote

The race in Iowa has shifted away from Mitt Romney because social conservatives and evangelicals have defected to the Huckabee camp. Iowa Republicans are no different from those in other states. Religion is very important to them. Who could have more credibility with these voters than a Baptist minister? Many of these same voters won't admit it, but Romney's Mormon faith is a problem for them. Romney still boasts a gigantic organization in the state, but evangelical voters are the dedicated foot soldiers of the Republican Party. They show up. This is why Romney has spent weeks downplaying expectations in Iowa.

The only way for Romney to win is if Huckabee's evangelical support does not materialize tomorrow night. This is an unlikely prospect at best, so look for a Huckabee win. The support of non-religious voters will probably fall to McCain and Paul, with Giuliani picking up a tiny bit as well. One final point to keep in mind for the future is that social and evangelical conservatives are big government Republicans. They are not advocates of a small federal government. This is a point that will loom large in future contests as the social and fiscal conservatives wrestle for control of their party.

* This quote has at various times been attributed to Samuel Goldwyn, Casey Stengel, and Yogi Berra.