A Sideorder of Scotsman: Handicapping the Iowa Caucus 01.03.08
Posted by Brian McLain on 01.03.2008
Step right up and place your bets on a number of fine steeds and one, maybe two nags. The Angry Scotsman takes a look at his home state's caucus and finds the best horses to put your money on.
Step right up and place your bets, ladies and gentlemen. It's caucus time in Iowa and, since everyone loves to call this thing a horse race, I decided to provide you with the spreads and picks to look for in this opener for the 2008 season. We may not have actual horses, but we do have horse-faced candidates, and while we do not have jockeys, we have one candidate that could double as one, so join the Angry Scotsman to the races and good luck.
First let's take a look at the Iowa Caucus Race spread on the Democrat side:
Hillary "The Nag" Clinton
This nag thinks she's one hell of a thoroughbred, gleefully galloping around like she won the damn thing months before the actual contest. However, keeping her blinders on and not realizing some betters are seeing her as just a show horse (and trust me folks, she ain't much to look at) has kept her landslide lead out of reach. Regardless, this old nag is looking to still possibly steal Iowa away from her other contenders, even if it is a photo finish.
Oddsmaker: 2:1
Barack "The O" Obama
This contender has certainly shown his might throughout the race, but is looking to be a good finisher, too. Without so much of a hint of rhyme or reason he has jumped up and even ahead in the race. With a massive amount of star power and a very small amount of blight in his record (even the Angry Scotsman has difficulty coming up with something to pester him about), this charming thoroughbred has seen the race of his life, and has proven to be a very strong contender.
Oddsmaker 2:1
John "Robin Hood" Edwards
Being neck and neck with the other previous two lead horses for the majority of the race, he's really slipped in the polls toward the finish. A great deal has hurt this country boy in a state that country boys should do very well in, chief among them is that he is still running. There are so many people I talk to that aren't supporting Edwards because he's out on the road rather than being with his dying wife in her final time on this Earth. Now I know most of the guys out there are thinking "But she told him to", but them should clear it up for you…the majority of these particular complaints I hear come from women. These former Edwards supporting women clue me to the true nature of women who say one thing to satisfy an obligation of not cracking a whip and then want something completely opposite. Whether dear Elizabeth is full of such hateful malice is out of our spectrum; however this, along with the bourgeois posing as a proletariat jip being up it might have broken John's leg in this race and the Democrats could be looking at euthanizing very soon. Oddsmaker: 10:1
Joesph "The Splitter" Biden
This is just a small ribbing from the ol' Scotsman and what he thinks about Biden's Iraq split plan. It's stupid, it stinks, it will cause even more woe, violence and division, and what's more it isn't even BIDEN'S PLAN! The Isreali government thought it would be a great idea in 1983. Anyway, I digress. This horse shows strong evidence of retiring from other races in the future and is hoping to throw as many supporters to his future endorsement as possible. He has be in absolute stall mode since he joined the race, never losing ground in Iowa, yet never gaining any either. It's like watching the Indianapolis Colts run a QB sneak at the 50 yard line against the Patriots in a game with no downs every single play. The strongest play this horse will make, however, will happen weeks before Super Tuesday and will finally break Hillary away from Obama.
Oddsmaker: 24:1
Bill "The Resume" Richardson
This thoroughbred has had a tough run this race, and it only looks to get tougher. If he hasn't guessed yet, the race track in Iowa is nothing like the one in New Mexico, and though he's made such a great effort to get up into where he should actually be for reasons of pragmatic reasoning and effort on the part of how he shaped his campaign, carried himself, and answered tough questions, it looks like it'll be back to the stables for this one.
Oddsmaker: 30:1
Chris "The Kamakazi" Dodd
Chris made so much of an effort to win Iowa he actually moved to it! I am literally living minutes away from a Presidential candidate which many would assume would help him in the polls. While he has been gaining ground as of late and Iowans appreciate his sentiment about the state, sending his kids to Iowa schools, lovingly talking about Iowa, etc. I certainly hope it isn't a ploy to win the caucus, because if he tries to move back to Connecticut there will be old constituents with fire and pitchforks waiting for him. Unless he was genuine, this was too much sacrifice, or better termed political suicide, for way to little.
Oddsmaker: 30:1
Dennis "The Jockey" Kucinich
When I first heard Kucinich was getting into the race the first thought on my mind was "Why? Is he looking for another wife?" Poor Dennis has much the same appeal as Ron Paul does in his own party; however his support has not shown the same explosive nature for some odd reason. However, when I talk to local Democrats, many of them really like Kucinich but just don't see him as viable. Therefore they simply can't vote for him, even though he matches their views, concerns, and solutions and Democrats are nothing but a bunch of party-whipped pansies. This horse talks a good game, but is still stuck at the gate, with no hope of catching up.
Oddsmaker: 200:1
Mike "Who?" Gravel
Step right up and try and guess Gravel's correct last name pronunciation. Odds are 3:1. Gravel has acted as that black hole for people who want to support Kucinich but feel they can't, and don't like any of the other horses either. This guy is not well liked in Iowa, though, and would likely meet the business end of a harvester if he ever showed after a woeful interview he gave on NPR blasting Iowa as worthless, stupid, and fit for no role of power in the country. Sounds a great deal like your efforts in this race, Mr. Gravel, so I hereby sentence you to the glue factory.
Oddsmaker: 15,000:1
Okay, everyone, that does it for the Democrats, now let's take a look at a much narrower race for the Republican nomination:
Mike "Dark Horse" Huckabee
Love him or hate him, this horse came from absolutely out of nowhere as the Republican Party decided to throw him a bone and start talking him up. This man has worked the state quite handily since he began campaigning, taking the cheaper and more direct route of frequently appearing on one of the most prominent local political radio talk shows in the state and selling himself as the common man. What his campaign will do after Iowa and New Hampshire is questionable since he is literally broke and carries almost no real support anywhere else in the country…at least where it counts. As for Iowa, we'll put it this way: he can laugh, he can joke, he's got a great personality, and he like Jesus. What else can you ask for in a Republican candidate, especially since the last guy won over a population that just wanted to know if he could keep them safe from the boogyman and be a good drinking buddy?
Oddsmaker: 2:1
Mitt "Mittens" Romeny
This horse has been strong out of the gate. So strong he actually outran the pace car by starting to advertise in Iowa in the late part of 2006. He still holds a commanding lead over much of the competition, and while he's been passed up by Huckabee in the polls, really has had to fight for he current running, showing his true contendership in this race and others to come. He has been dogged and beaten like…well…a dead horse in regards to his flip flopping nature, especially on abortion on two of the more prominent political local talk shows. The nature of his Mormonism really doesn't come into play as much in the Urban areas and he looks to do well in places such as Des Moines, Council Bluffs, Davenport, and Dubuque (big Catholic community up there, and they know what it's like). A strong measure of those who can't get behind him, however, is quite simply they don't trust the guy, he's shifty, and his governor record is far from what he is insisting what his presidential record would be.
Oddsmaker: 3:1
Ron "The Spoiler" Paul
Starting out as a virtual unknown in March, this horse has made the most movement of any other horse in the race. Without lifting a finger, the man had loyal followers to raise him more than $4 Million in one day in November and over $6 million, an all time record, in one day in December. These "money bombs" are what blasted Paul into the media spotlight when before he was barely covered and still start most articles with "while wholly a nutcase, this guy sure is interesting". While I do agree with Jason that the Republican Party doesn't want Ron Paul, I will add to this saying a good chunk of the American people do, especially with such a fallout from the neo-con takeover alienating a lot of real Conservatives, so I'm still saying Paul does well in Iowa and will go further to say he will do well in New Hampshire as well. Turn out and mobilization is the key to this horse's campaign and when you have a large following of supporters who are willing to take a bullet for you, spend hundreds of thousands of their own money to buy up billboards, planes flying banners, and a frickin' blimp, you can guarantee that every single one of those supporters are going to show up to push "The Spoiler" into true contendership for the nomination. The unique part of this, however, is it will be done without help of big endorsements, big money, and big media…this is all individuals and no one else.
Oddsmaker: 6:1
Fred "The Walking Corpse" Thompson
This horse has had an impressive run, despite the fact he is tired all the time, still very much looks like he's on chemo, can only talk for small segments at a time, and has the charisma of a wilted asparagus. This guy's strong points are his thoughts on the issues and name recognition. I am assuming a lot of Republicans are real Law and Order fans and he holds status quo, post 9/11 Republican views candidates like Mitt and Rudy don't hold or are not trusted to hold. Look for a strong finish for this horse, but not enough to push him to the top.
Oddsmaker: 9:1
Rudy "Mr. 9/11" Giuliani
Rudy has been a strong contender out of the gate as well, however does not look to do very well in the race in Iowa. Quite bluntly pointing to Iowa as unimportant, he spent a good deal of his time campaigning in either larger early states or New Hampshire, shunning Iowa completely. This crippled the Giuliani campaign, and while he magically had a change of heart after he heard his strawpoll results, it won't be enough to turn this Iowa crowd around for him. His single issue candidacy, very unrepublican values, and how fat he looks in a dress doesn't help either… okay that last one has no real baring.
Oddsmaker: 12:1
John "The Comeback Kid" McCain
McCain has made a new resurgence in Iowa, but suffers from the same, self-induced plight as Rudy by practically writing Iowa off as unimportant. He has a lot more on his plate than Rudy, though, which still keeps him rather viable in the state, but still not likable enough to push ahead. After all, the guy did lose to George W. Bush, which is like losing a game of chess to a salamander.
Oddsmaker: 19:1
Duncan "The Real Deal" Hunter
Take a look at Hunter's record and you will see perhaps the only real Reagan Republican out of the whole bunch. However this is a horse well past ready for the glue factory simply because his lacks the type of charisma and campaign to really push this horse ahead. I do like Hunter quite a big; however his stance and voting record on a couple of bills I absolutely despised killed him for me. The real shame in Hunter's performance in the race is that it really is true; Reagan is dead and so his party.
Alan "Am I late?" Keyes
This was my pick in the 1999 Iowa Strawpoll because of his libertarian background. He is sort of like a black Ron Paul with a tremendous chip on his shoulder and shouts out mostly against the "slavery" of the income tax. While I agree with his analogy, I will say this horse left the gate way to late to be even close to anybody else and has little support to really get him in the game now.
Oddsmaker: 2000:1
John "Who?" Cox
The tax attorney from Illinois is back again for another stab at a nomination to a party that could care less about common people running for the Presidency. John is very well established in his way of thinking, his views, and his values and, talking to the guy, he is very genuine in his run and beliefs. The problem is constant ignoring by the media, party, and…well…everybody except for C-SPAN has left this horse mostly a nag. I recall talking with him in regards to coming onto The Political Universe Radio Show and he spent the majority of the time complaining about how little airtime he gets and even went as far as "why not? It's not like I have NBC or CNN beating down my door". Nice. Maybe next time shore up the self-pity and Eeyor mentality…otherwise feel free to take yourself to the glue factory.
Oddsmaker: 2,000,000,000,000,000,001:1
Well, that's a look at the spread, folks. Now it's time for the Scotsman's prediction picks for the Iowa Caucus:
Democrats:
Win: Hillary "The Nag" Clinton
Place: Barack "The O" Obama
Show: John "Robin Hood" Edwards (This is a very distant showing)
Republicans:
Win: Mike "Dark Horse" Huckabee
Place: Mitt "Mittens" Romney
Show: "Ron "The Spoiler" Paul
Please feel free to email me with any complaints, compliments, or death threats you might have. Keep in mind I have total right and ability to post anything anybody sends to me on any of my articles, however given my current record of posting that should give anybody enough time to leave the country and avoid prosecution. I hope to see you all again real soon and please remember to keep an eye on the race, because as history has proven, the leader board can change at any moment.
STAY CURRENT