My Predictions for the Iowa Caucuses

Posted by Jason Easley on 01.03.2008

Here is the way that I see the caucuses shaking down tonight. I rank all the candidates from first to last in both parties.

After what was the longest year of unnecessary political campaigning, involving a seemingly interminable string of debates in U.S. history, it is now time for somebody, somewhere to actually vote. The good people of Iowa will finally after tonight will be able to get the traveling freak show that is the 2008 presidential campaign out of their lives and off of their television sets. Speaking of TV, all of the talking heads are afraid to make predictions about tonight. What I don't understand is why? It isn't like they have they have any credibility left after they collectively got it wrong on election night in 2000. Plus they are giving the caucus all day coverage that is reminiscent of a Super Bowl pregame, and without predictions they are just filling air time until the big event.

Other people may be afraid to look stupid, but I'm not. I'm willing to rank the candidates in order of finish for the caucus in each party, even if this means being completely wrong, and looking like a fool. In my mind, there is no reason why we shouldn't have a little fun today, and who doesn't enjoy a good discussion about predictions?

Tonight's event isn't really as unpredictable as those on TV, who are interested in heightening the drama, would have you think. There will be two winners, one in each party, and only five candidates have a serious chance of winning. The bottom finishers are also easy to predict. The real uncertainty here is where the top three Democrats will finish, so let's take a look at them first.

My Democratic Predictions

1). Barack Obama - Obama has had all the momentum for a month now.

2). Hillary Clinton - Her strong base and organization will lead her to a second place finish.

3). John Edwards - Edwards will be strong. He could even edge out Clinton for second.

4). Bill Richardson - This is the beginning of the end for Big Bill.

5). Joe Biden - If Biden sticks to his word, then this is goodbye.

6). Chris Dodd - He should quit, but he probably won't. He needs to go back to the Senate and prepare to challenge Harry Reid for Majority Leader.

7). Dennis Kucinich - He has written off Iowa.

8). Mike Gravel - He isn't campaigning at all.

My Republican Predictions

1). Mike Huckabee - Evangelicals will support their fellow Christian in a big way.

2). Mitt Romney - No amount of spending can hide questions about his faith and conservative credentials. He must quickly turn his attention to New Hampshire and fight off John McCain, or he will have no chance of winning the nomination.

3). John McCain - The unlikely revival continues. McCain should thank the national media for bringing his campaign back from the dead. They love the guy.

4). Ron Paul - Paul has chosen not to do much in Iowa, but this is a tossup slot, and Paul has the most committed supporters in the campaign. They will stick with their guy, and not waiver.

5). Fred Thompson - Thompson's last minute push in the state, along with some thinking that he is the safe choice, may nudge him ahead of Paul. Thompson's support, like his candidacy is a bit apathetic, so I am giving the edge to Paul.

6). Rudy Giuliani - He completely ignored Iowa. It would be a shock if he finished in the top 5.

7). Duncan Hunter - This is by default, because he is at least trying to run a serious campaign.

8). Alan Keyes - Keyes is a sham of a candidate who wants to run for president without all of that messy campaigning.

9). John Cox - His goal for 2012 is to be able to afford a campaign worker.

There you have it. This is the way that I see then first state in the nation going. I guess we will see tonight just how smart or dumb I really am.

The Radio Show

I also did a radio show that talked about Iowa and predictions. You can check it out either by clicking here, or by using the media player below.