Believe It: Obama, Huckabee Win Iowa

Posted by Ashish on 01.04.2008

Stunning results from Iowa...

Two candidates thought to have little to no chance to win a few months ago won Iowa in the kick-off to the nomination process. Barack Obama defeated John Edwards and Hillary Clinton, 38% to 30% to 29%. Yep, Hillary finished third. Clinton has positioned herself as the "inevitable" Democratic candidate for months now and this loss hurts her badly. The loss also crushes John Edwards who now has little to no chance to get the nomination.

As for Obama, he needed to win Iowa and he did. A lot of people out there have had doubts about him. Sure he can give a good speech, but can he win? Can he actually beat a Clinton? Well, now he has. Will this be enough for him to go on and win in New Hampshire on Tuesday? If he does, look out. He will be tough to stop then.

His victory speech in Iowa last night showed exactly why he won. Believe want to believe in his message of uniting the country. Edwards and Clinton basically promoting the "change" message in their speeches seemed to further reinforce what Obama has been talking about since he got into the election. Obama knows how to seize a moment, and he did just that, delivering a powerful speech that will serve as a great introduction to the many people who probably tuned in and saw their first real glimpse of him. Great leaders need to know how to capture a moment. Obama did just that.

Make no mistake about it, Hillary Clinton will not go down easily. She is still the establishment candidate and if anything, this is going to rachet her up to another degree in terms of going after Obama before New Hampshire. The problem for her now is that Obama has a lot of momentum. He is going to be talked about nonstop for the next few days and it'll be mostly good. Meanwhile, Hillary will have to go on defense about how she not only lost to Obama, but also Edwards. Obama also is by far the best speaker of the group and by far has the best ability to inspire people. Winning Iowa is just what his "movement" needs to gain more support.

As for Huckabee, his nomination reinforces a lot of what got Obama nominated. He was by far the most charismatic guy running in Iowa and was also the only one to really stress a message of change. Whether he can pull off the nomination remains to be seen now though. He is way behind in New Hampshire and probably won't win there. It is very likely that Huckabee, John McCain, and Mitt Romney will ALL remain viable leading up to February 5th's Super Tuesday, and don't forget Rudy Giuliani. His hope is that his competitors come out muddled and lacking any major momentum, giving him the chance to come in late and win the big states and the nomination.

The Iowa loss really hurts Mitt Romney who spent a ton of money and time there, more than anybody else. Now he has to regroup and beat John McCain in New Hampshire which seems much harder to do now. If he loses New Hampshire, things are dim for him.

It was a historic night. We'll see what happens from here.