A Political Universe Special: The Iowa Caucuses

Posted by Jason Easley on 01.04.2008

There weren't many surprises, but the Iowa caucuses did confirm a shift in the 2008 presidential campaign.

After all the bluster and hype about the Iowa caucuses, it turned out that the 2008 presidential campaign's first vote would hold very few surprises. Barack Obama both and Mike Huckabee both cruised to fairly easy victories. There were some minor surprises such as John Edwards's eeking out a second place finish over Hillary Clinton, and the surprise third place showings for Fred Thompson and John McCain, but overall each caucus fell in line with most recent polling.

The Obama Tidal Wave

The biggest winner of the night was Barack Obama. In one fell swoop, Obama destroyed the myths that Hillary Clinton was the only Democratic candidate that can win and that her nomination was inevitable. The bigger problem for Clinton is that Obama seems to have tapped into the Democratic electorate's collective desire for change. Hillary Clinton does not represent change. Her very presence in the campaign represents the past. I believe that if Clinton doesn't quickly reshape her message, she could be lost under a tidal wave of Obama momentum.

In his victory speech late on Thursday night Obama continued to talk about change, and his belief that the time for change is right now. "I did not run for the presidency to fulfill some long-held ambition or because I believed it was somehow owed to me. I chose to run in this election - at this moment - because of what Dr. King called "the fierce urgency of now." Because we are at a defining moment in our history. Our nation is at war. Our planet is in peril. Our health care system is broken, our economy is out of balance, our education system fails too many of our children, and our retirement system is in tatters."

Obama continued, "At this defining moment, we cannot wait any longer for universal health care. We cannot wait to fix our schools. We cannot wait for good jobs, and living wages, and pensions we can count on. We cannot wait to halt global warming, and we cannot wait to end this war in Iraq. I chose to run because I believed that the size of these challenges had outgrown the capacity of our broken and divided politics to solve them; because I believed that Americans of every political stripe were hungry for a new kind of politics, a politics that focused not just on how to win but why we should, a politics that focused on those values and ideals that we held in common as Americans; a politics that favored common sense over ideology, straight talk over spin."

The Rejection of the Experience Argument

Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, and Bill Richardson have all based their campaigns on the argument that they have the experience to be president, and right now America needs experienced leadership. The result of this argument was that Clinton finished third, Richardson fourth, and Biden and Dodd near the bottom. Biden and Dodd both got the message, and announced that they are quitting the race.

"This evening Democrats sent a clear message that this party is united in our belief that our nation needs change to restore our security, our middle class and all that makes this country great," Dodd said in his concession speech. Mike Gravel also officially dropped out, but he wasn't really campaigning anyway.

Second place finisher John Edwards spoke about the victory for change. "The one thing that's clear from tonight's caucus is that the status quo lost and change won," Edwards said. "The results show that the American people are ready for a president who will stand up to corporate greed and fight for hard-working families, someone who will fix the broken system in Washington and achieve real change in this country."

Edwards also called out the Clinton campaign. "The Clinton campaign thought big money would make them inevitable – but despite being dramatically outspent by not one, but two celebrity candidates, we finished a strong second. And now we move on to New Hampshire and the other early states, where the voters will choose who is best suited to bring about the change this country so desperately needs." However, Edwards really needed a win here. A second place finish isn't enough to carry through February 5.

The Evangelicals Have Found Their Candidate

Mike Huckabee won by nine points over Mitt Romney 34%-25%. Sixty percent of the Republicans who caucused were self defined evangelicals, and 45% of them voted for Huckabee. "A new day is needed in American politics, just like a new day is needed in American government. It starts here, but it doesn't end here. It goes all the way through the other states and ends at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue," Huckabee said. This was devastating loss for Mitt Romney who must win in New Hampshire or his campaign is probably finished. Huckabee will probably get a bounce in New Hampshire, but that state looks to be choosing between McCain and Romney.

Speaking of John McCain, his tie for third with Fred Thompson provided more evidence of his political Lazarus act. Romney is going to be in for a tough five days, because McCain is going to battle him hard in the Granite State. I think Fred Thompson and McCain are splitting a lot of Republican votes, but Thompson's third place finish showed that if he would actually campaign, he could be a viable candidate. Ron Paul's fifth place finish was where I thought he would end up. Paul will fare better in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Rudy Giuliani made an idiotic decision to skip Iowa, and I think he will regret his sixth place finish in the state. As far as Duncan Hunter is concerned, it is time for him to quit the campaign.

So What Have We Learned?

1). We learned that voters in both parties are aching for fresh faces, and change. Both Obama and Huckabee are the new kids on the block, and they both were able to capture the imagination and support of Iowa caucus goers.

2). Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney better come up with new messages fast. A sub lesson here is that no amount of money can make a cold candidate likable.

3). There is a generational shift occurring in the Democratic Party. There is a chance that what we saw in Iowa represents a changing of the guard in the Democratic Party. There seems to be a sizable number of Democrats who believe that the Clintons should stay in the 1990s where they belong.

4). It is never a good idea to skip Iowa, and assume that doing so won't hurt your campaign.

Predictions

On Thursday, here is what I predicted for the Democrats:

1). Barack Obama - Obama has had all the momentum for a month now.

2). Hillary Clinton - Her strong base and organization will lead her to a second place finish.

3). John Edwards - Edwards will be strong. He could even edge out Clinton for second.

4). Bill Richardson - This is the beginning of the end for Big Bill.

5). Joe Biden - If Biden sticks to his word, then this is goodbye.

6). Chris Dodd - He should quit, but he probably won't. He needs to go back to the Senate and prepare to challenge Harry Reid for Majority Leader.

7). Dennis Kucinich - He has written off Iowa.

8). Mike Gravel - He isn't campaigning at all.

Here is how they finished :

1). Barack Obama

2). John Edwards - Edwards did edge past Clinton like I thought he might.

3). Hillary Clinton

4). Bill Richardson

5). Joe Biden - Joe did quit.

6). Chris Dodd - Dodd surprised me a little by quitting now.

7). Dennis Kucinich

8). Mike Gravel

Republican Predictions

1). Mike Huckabee - Evangelicals will support their fellow Christian in a big way.

2). Mitt Romney - No amount of spending can hide questions about his faith and conservative credentials. He must quickly turn his attention to New Hampshire and fight off John McCain, or he will have no chance of winning the nomination.

3). John McCain - The unlikely revival continues. McCain should thank the national media for bringing his campaign back from the dead. They love the guy.

4). Ron Paul - Paul has chosen not to do much in Iowa, but this is a tossup slot, and Paul has the most committed supporters in the campaign. They will stick with their guy, and not waiver.

5). Fred Thompson - Thompson's last minute push in the state, along with some thinking that he is the safe choice, may nudge him ahead of Paul. Thompson's support, like his candidacy is a bit apathetic, so I am giving the edge to Paul.

6). Rudy Giuliani - He completely ignored Iowa. It would be a shock if he finished in the top 5.

7). Duncan Hunter - This is by default, because he is at least trying to run a serious campaign.

8). Alan Keyes - Keyes is a sham of a candidate who wants to run for president without all of that messy campaigning.

9). John Cox - His goal for 2012 is to be able to afford a campaign worker.

Here is how they finished:

1). Mike Huckabee

2). Mitt Romney

3). Fred Thompson – Thompson squeaking by Paul surprised me a little.

3). John McCain

5). Ron Paul

6). Rudy Giuliani

7). Alan Keyes

8). John Cox

I guess overall I didn't do too shabby. If I would have given Thompson more credit, I could have had a perfect prediction.

The Radio Show

I also did a radio show about my predictions that you can listen to by either clicking here, or using the media player below.