What to Watch For in New Hampshire

Posted by Jason Easley on 01.08.2008

Although it seems like a foregone conclusion that Barack Obama and either John McCain or Mitt Romney will be the winners after tonight’s New Hampshire primary, there are still some things to keep an eye on within the results that could impact future primaries.

1). Obama's Margin of Victory

Some people are over exaggerating the impact of an Obama victory on the Clinton campaign. It is certain that she will not drop out of the race until at least after February 5, but if she gets blown out tonight by Obama, it will ratchet up the pressure on her. An unlikely, but even worse case scenario for Clinton would be another third place finish behind John Edwards. The early reports that many polling places were running out of Democratic ballots are not a good sign for Clinton. If she loses badly tonight, I expect her to shake up the leadership of her campaign. I don't see what good this type of shakeup will do when the fundamental problem is with the candidate herself.

2). McCain vs. Romney

Independent voters carried John McCain to a big victory over George W. Bush in 2000, but the popularity of Obama among independents may cost him a victory in 2008. It isn't a coincidence that McCain was looking like a sure winner before Obama won in Iowa. McCain is not popular among rank and file Republicans, whereas Romney was governor of a neighboring state, and has spent millions of dollars in New Hampshire. The loser tonight between these two is probably finished.

Even after another loss Romney would continue on, but his strategy was built on sweeping through the early states, and gaining national momentum. Without those early victories, Romney has no natural constituency. He would be left with a floundering campaign that has no base. On the other side is John McCain. McCain has put everything on the line in New Hampshire. He has thrown all of his resources at the state in a last gasp roll of the dice to keep his campaign alive. A second place finish won't cut it. It is either win or go home for McCain.

The Rest of the Race

On the Democratic side, John Edwards can't afford a third place finish. If he can find his way into second tonight, he can continue to argue that he the true challenger to Obama. On the GOP side, look for Rudy Giuliani to finish poorly, as his wait for the big states strategy may leave him irrelevant by the time Florida rolls around. Mike Huckabee will happily take his third place finish in a state that isn't a good fit for his message, and if the independents do flock to Obama, Ron Paul could be left with about 10% of the vote. Fred Thompson has done nothing in New Hampshire, and is counting on South Carolina. I expect Paul to finish fourth, Giuliani fifth and Thompson sixth.