How Hillary Clinton Won the New Hampshire Primary
Posted by Jason Easley on 01.09.2008
The Democratic race takes another dramatic turn.
Twenty four hours before the primary all the polls, including the internal polls of each campaign, showed Obama ahead. Throughout the day members of the Clinton campaign were putting out the message that they would be happy if they stayed within single digits of Obama. President Clinton was complaining that the frontloaded primary process was too compact. It sure looked as if even the candidate herself didn't expect to win, but then something funny happened on Tuesday night. There was a record Democratic primary turnout, but these voters weren't independents and young people. Instead women and older voters turned out in droves. They turned out in support of Hillary Clinton.
What the polls told us should have been an Obama rout, became a night where two traditional Democratic constituencies came together and flexed their muscles for Hillary Clinton. Something changed in the last 24 hours and I think it was when Hillary choked up and showed herself to be a real person. I think the fact that Clinton spent time talking to the voters and answering questions instead of either preaching at them, or robotically repeating her resume also helped her immensely. For the first time in this campaign she appeared, not superior to us, but human.
I think the polls underestimated the loyalty that has been built up in the state to the Clintons since 1992. New Hampshire is a Clinton state. It was her strong double digit advantage among women both young and old that powered her to victory. One must also keep in mind that a few months ago, Hillary was expected to dominate this state. The fact remains that the race for the Democratic nomination is still wide open. This win does stop Obama's momentum, and raises the ante in both South Carolina and Nevada. Hillary Clinton said that in New Hampshire she was able to find her own voice and speak from the heart. If she keeps this up, she will be a formidable candidate through the rest of the process. The Democratic race is essentially a two person contest, and I think that either candidate is capable of winning.
Hey Jase, I'm going to hint you towards something out there. I haven't had time to dig into the statistics, but from brief I've seen, New Hampshire seems to be one of the oldest states in the union, and I don't mean when it signed up. Just looking at 20-30 year olds, they make up something like 5% less of the population in NH than they do in Iowa. Might have played into this as well.
Posted By: Ray Church (Registered) on January 09, 2008 at 01:46 AM
Eleanor Roosevelt taught us that sometimes silence is the greatest sin
by Mrs. Lyndon Baines (Ladybird) Johnson
Former First Lady, United States Of America
Women can move beyond the struggle for equal status and for material goods to the challenges and opportunities of citizenship. Quality of goals and the achievement of goals which will mean a better life for all. For me, it was the beginning of seeing how politics can bring tangible results. I always hope that the very best of our people will go into politics, and I am sure that some of our best are women. So, I say: "Don't hold back. Don't be shy. Step forward in every way you can to plan boldly, to speak clearly, to offer the leadership which the world needs. Let us today earnestly resolve to build the true foundation for Eleanor Roosevelt's memory--to pluck out prejudice from our lives, to remove fear and hate where it exists, and to create a world unafraid to work out its destiny in peace. Eleanor Roosevelt has already made her own splendid and incomparable contribution to that foundation. Let us go and do likewise, within the measure of our faith and the limits of our ability. Let Eleanor Roosevelt teach Us all how to turn the arts of compassion into the victories of democracy.Eleanor Roosevelt taught us that sometimes silence is the greatest sin.
"Madame President of the United States...it’s an extraordinary thought. We truly are in a momentous time, where a woman’s potential has no limitations," said Streisand. "Hillary Clinton has already proven to a generation of women that there are no limits for success. She is driven by her passion for public service and her belief in the enormous potential of our country. Smart, capable and strong in her convictions, Hillary has transcended the dictates of what is thought to be possible for our time.
"Hillary is a powerful voice for change as we find our country at an important crossroads. Under her leadership, our country will regain its respect within the global community. She will prioritize issues of global climate change, universal health care and rebuilding a strong economy. After 8 long years, the public will once again have faith in their government.
"Another former first lady, Eleanor Roosevelt once wrote, ‘In government, in business, and in the professions there may be a day when women will be looked upon as persons. We are, however, far from that day as yet.’ More than 50 years later 'that day' is now upon us…and Hillary Clinton is ready to shatter through that glass ceiling for all women."
Posted By: CLINTON 2008 (Guest) on January 09, 2008 at 02:08 AM
ABC News pointed out that the demographic Hillary did best with was women over the age of 65. It also pointed out the group she had the strongest lead with were people who made up their minds months ago. My guess is the tearing up may have helped, but in reality older voters were less likely to attend rallies - explaining Obama's seeming unstoppable momentum if one just looked at events. Also, older people tend to vote more reliably than do younger people and new voters. All of that might mean when a telephone survey says one thing and that some surveyed may not have shown up. Also, the phenom of Barack Obama may have brought people from out of state to be part of his rallies. Once again these people can not vote in NH, but to the media it looks like he has a huge set of supporters. South Carolina and Nevada are not right around the corner for the Dems (1-19 for Nevada and 1-26 for South Carolina). This should be interesting. I think many many Democrats excited about the prospect of something new and being part of something new will have to show toughness between now and those events as well as the Feb 5 primaries.
Posted By: Dan Martin (Registered) on January 09, 2008 at 02:31 AM
Not to ruin Clinton's score but Obama has 1 more delegate than her in NH. He still wind the nomination in NH, although he lost the popular vote.
Posted By: Robert (Guest) on January 09, 2008 at 02:48 AM
i hope that hilary clinton take it home because i know that is she do everything will be okay i wish i waz old enough to vote but i hope u b tha first women to b tha prsident give me a shout out
Posted By: shakayla walker (Guest) on January 09, 2008 at 09:16 AM
I think it's fairly simple. When young people turn out, Obama wins. When they don't, Obama doesn't do as well. Even though it feels like Obama is the "feel good candidate" and will be soaring to the nomination, he's got the tougher road to travel. He gets some older voters, but he depends on the young ones. And we all know, the youth vote is either undependable, or unpredictable.
Posted By: Brandon Crow (Registered) on January 09, 2008 at 04:38 PM
Yeah universal health care, that's going to work, they did such a good job trying to get that through back in Clinton's first term... Oh wait! Who is going to pay for it? Print more money? Raise taxes? Why are people so damn insistent in wanting government to control another aspect of their lives?!
What the hell has Hilary Clinton ever done that warrants her being President? Besides Bill Clinton's wife. What has she done for New York after all these years?
Don't get me started on her sudden display of "emotion" that the media has been all over.... If you're a big enough sucker to fall for that then for the love of whatever, don't ****ing vote. We don't need another repeat of the stupidity of the last seven going on eight years.
Posted By: PHOENIXZERO (Registered) on January 10, 2008 at 10:37 PM
To correct Robert slightly, he has one more delegate becuase he won Iowa..they evened out the NH delegates.
Also it's worth noting that NH is one of the single whitest states in the union, and Hilary's shtick about it being representativew of the country is her trying to get that "inevitability" thing going again.
Posted By: Adam S. (Guest) on January 12, 2008 at 05:06 AM
STAY CURRENT