The Dynamic Center 1.18.08: Is the GOP Glass 2/3 Empty or 1/3 Full

Posted by Dan Martin on 01.18.2008

McCain, Romney and Huckabee all have at least one primary or caucus victory under their belts. Each satisfies one camp of conservatives while not measuring up to the demands of two other camps. Can this be solved?

Military conservatives have their man in John McCain for 2008. Social conservatives have to this point chosen Mike Huckabee. Economic conservatives chose Mitt Romney in Michigan. Neo-conservatives are sufficiently unpopular at the moment to only have a small say in the nomination process, but each of the three traditional conservative voting blocs has selected a candidate that is unappealing to the other two blocs. That alone may make the small say of the neo-cons a decisive say in selecting the 2008 GOP presidential nominee. Let's take a closer look.

Military Conservatives: Why McCain and why not Romney or Huckabee

John McCain is a war hero who chastised President Bush early and often about not sending enough troops into Iraq. The relative success of the surge, violence is down significantly in Iraq even if none of the bench marks for progress are being achieved, has proven McCain to be a man with vision and judgment on foreign policy matters. McCain's long tenure in the U.S. Senate and experience dealing with foreign policy prior to the Iraq War only adds to his nearly insurmountable national security advantage. He can talk just as tough as Rudy Giuliani without coming across as a dangerous zealot because he also has proven himself to be shrewd.

Mitt Romney does not have a lot of foreign policy experience. Fair or not, Romney has also been painted as a flip-flopper. Military conservatives want a leader who is dependable. Romney's work on the Salt Lake City Olympics and his business acumen may prove he has a grasp on the global economy, but the sort of foreign policy dominating this election is not economic foreign policy. Mike Huckabee has even less foreign policy experience. His fumbling with the assassination of Benazir Bhutto did not cost him many votes in Iowa, but it also did not make people hum Hail to the Chief either.

Religious Conservatives: Why Huckabee and why not Romney or McCain

Mike Huckabee is a former Baptist pastor and can sound a sermon like tone in his stump speeches. Huckabee has all of the gifts of a good preacher. His humor, compassion and experience in the pulpit all come through. His stance on evolution plays well with many Biblical literalists. However, his understanding of Church-State issues also softens any fears people have of electing a Pastor-in-Chief. Huckabee sounds all of the right evangelical tones without coming across as an angry red faced preacher. His populist economic themes also seem to suit the uncertainty many blue collar and true middle class social conservatives are feeling.

John McCain is somewhat tolerable to religious conservatives. His stance on abortion was questioned a great deal by Alan Keyes in 2000. McCain also took the brunt of Pat Robertson led push polling in South Carolina during the 2000 primary. He is tolerable but not embraced. McCain has also been criticized as being soft on illegal immigration. This is an issue that for better or worse plays well in rural America. Mitt Romney is acceptable to many religious conservatives who happen to be members of the Latter Day Saints Church. LDS Churches or Mormons are often referred to as a cult by Evangelical Churches. Throw in Romney's recent right wing stances on gay rights and abortion and the recipe for Evangelical distrust is potent. The fact that many Southern, rural and conservative Protestants consider the LDS Church to be a cult seems to be a hurdle too high for Romney to clear among religious conservatives.

Economic Conservatives: Why Romney and not McCain or Huckabee

Mitt Romney's experience as a business person and policy stances make him almost a default candidate for Wall Street Journal conservatives. Some of this is the outgrowth of the economic policies of his rivals. Huckabee's "Fair Tax"/national consumption tax plan has some grass roots conservatives fired up. The Wall Street Journal has savaged the plan on at least two occasions. President Bush's tax study group determined such a plan to be unfeasible during the first W. term. Huckabee's economic populism is also a major turn off to economic conservatives. No way will a candidate who calls CEO salaries "obscene" be favored by corporate America. John McCain voted against President Bush's tax cuts on the grounds that they would swell the national deficit. He has been proven to be right, but fears that McCain will allow some or all of W.'s tax cuts to expire as President does not sit well with anti-tax Wall Street. Throw in McCain taking climate change seriously and fears about government oversight are running high among corporate conservatives. Therefore, Romney wins this faction because McCain and Huckabee are both so objectionable to economic conservatives.

Where Things Stand

Mitt Romney, who won the Wyoming Caucuses and Michigan Primary while posting second place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, seems to be a realist about Southern conservatives not embracing his candidacy. Therefore, Romney is focusing on Saturday's Nevada Caucuses. A Romney win combined with his win in Wyoming might prove that Mitt has Western appeal. LDS Church members are more prolific in Western states and the Bible Belt is obviously buckled elsewhere even if many religious conservatives can be found out West.

McCain, Huckabee and a somewhat revived Fred Thompson all desperately need a win in South Carolina. McCain could survive a 2nd place finish in South Carolina, but Huckabee needs to win one on his home turf. There is no state more Southern, more Evangelical or more conservative than South Carolina. Fred Thompson who endorsed McCain months before entering the race could pull a shocker in South Carolina, but the Tennessean is attempting to draw a lot of the same water as Huckabee. If Thompson splits the social conservative vote and McCain's immigration record does not sink him among military conservatives, Huckabee could be mortally wounded. At any rate, the loser in South Carolina will be badly hurt because neither McCain not Huckabee have the resources to shrug off defeat. The field of three may be whittled down to two when Saturday's dust settles.

Is Rudy Still Alive?

Rudy Giuliani has been sinking in both state and national polls for nearly 6 weeks. That is not a good place for a candidate to be. Still, if Saturday eliminates Huckabee as a Presidential contender McCain and Romney are still only acceptable to 1/3 of the party. Rudy is pro-choice so his chances of winning the social conservative vote are low even if he is anti-Muslim enough for a light weight like Pat Robertson to endorse him. Rudy is economically viable as a conservative. His near dictatorial approach to executive power will play well with some military conservatives. Neo-cons also will coalesce around either Rudy of Romney. Therefore, Giuliani will have one more shot to take the nomination. Rudy seems less qualified on a human level than any of the three candidates currently slugging it out. Still, he may be the second most palatable for at least two groups of conservatives along with being the neo-con standard bearer. That may be enough. Whatever the result is bank on at least one or two sizable pockets of conservatives being displeased with the 2008 GOP nominee.