411 Politics Fact or Fiction 01.21.08: Week 75

Posted by Brandon Crow on 01.21.2008

Is the downturn in the economy under Republican leadership making it impossible for a Republican candidate to win the presidency in 2008? Will South Carolina's high African American population turn out the vote for Obama? Did Rudy make a big mistake foregoing all states before Florida? Is Mitt Romney the most likely Republican nominee?

Happy MLK Day to all. To those that have it, I hope you are enjoying the extra day off.
The primaries and elections on both sides of the aisle are starting to heat up, so let's get to this week's Fact or Fiction where we have two of the zone's favorites, Krunchy Law (long time reader and witty respondent) and Tom Head (civil liberties writer for About.com).

So, on Dr. King's 79th birthday, we bring you Week 75 of Politics Fact or Fiction!

Ding, Ding!

1. The economy has officially overtaken Iraq as the number one issue for voters. Now that red meat, blue-collar workers recognize the economy is going down the tubes after seven years of Republican leadership, it makes the 2008 presidential elections nearly impossible for the Republican party.

Tom Head: FACT & FICTION. The first sentence in question 1 is a FACT. The second is totally FICTION. Allow me to parse the question and explain.

>>The economy has officially overtaken Iraq as the number one issue for voters.

FACT. This is due to two factors: Iraq has gotten better (in the sense that the surge has temporarily improved stability), and the economy has gotten worse. Whether it will remain so in November, however, is an open question. If Iraq gets worse, or the economy gets better, or another issue emerges (health care could be the sleeper issue of the 2008 elections), then things could certainly change.

>>Now that red meat, blue-collar workers recognize the economy is going down the tubes after seven years of Republican leadership, it makes the 2008 presidential elections nearly impossible for the Republican party.

FICTION. The approval rating for the Democratic Congress is actually lower than President Bush's approval rating, which leaves plenty of room for a strong, charismatic Republican candidate to run a fresh campaign. But it won't be easy, and I'm not sure any of this year's candidates are up to the challenge.

Krunchy Law: FICTION. You think most of those red meat, white-skinned blue-collar good ole boys (Just think of the ‘bad guys' in Porky's II and you have a good idea of what I am thinking of) are going to vote for a black man, or a "femi-nazi?!?" All it will take is for the Republican candidate to say "America is a wonderful place; those liberal bastard democrats are saying that we aren't the best place is the world. It's those damn immigrants and terrorists that are wrecking the economy." The type of Americans you refer to in the question (I will call them ummmm, Nickelback-loving Americans) want to hear good stuff; they don't want to hear about Global Warming, and problems with Social Security. They want to hear that the president will give them more money in their pockets, and keep them safe and sound from any and all boogiemen, hence the charm of Republicans. Unless Barack can really push his "message of hope" this election will once again come down to the wire.

1 for 1. Well, since Tom staked out both fact and fiction, I guess I have to count this as an agreement…on a technicality. Though I think Tom pulled a fast one on the old Crow, I also think he's right. There is no getting away from the first part of this statement being a fact. The second part is indeed up for debate. And way to go Krunchy! I love your "charm of Republicans" remark. Classic Krunchy!

2. South Carolina, with nearly 50% of the voter population being African-American, will go for Barack Obama.

Tom Head: FACT. Not only because over 50% of Democratic voters in the state are black, but also because Obama tends to poll much better among independent voters, especially in red states. Hillary Clinton will probably take Nevada, but I think her chances of taking South Carolina, barring a major gaffe from Obama, are extremely slim.

Krunchy Law: FICTION. While I have no idea who will win, for some reason, "The Clintons" have always had a solid base of support with black people (perhaps they were against the cancellation of "What's Happening!" in the 70's?). It would not surprise me in the slightest if Hilary won South Carolina, especially if she recovers that southern drawl she appropriates occasionally. If Barack had a more conservative "southern" religion, I could see him doing better, but he supports a very liberal church that believes that gays should marry, among other things that won't fly in South Carolina.

A side note to this: I wish this writers strike would end, because I'd love to see The Rock play Barack on SNL. Comedy Gold I tell ya!

1 for 2. The Rock as Obama… intereting. If you smellllllalallalaa what the "Pres"…is… cooking!

Switch!

3. Rudy Giuliani and his advisors made a critical error in writing off so many early states and they will pay a heavy price for it.

Krunchy Law: FACT. You'd think that Giuliani was shooting episodes of "Law & Order: America's Mayor" and couldn't be bothered to campaign. When Ron Paul has more delegates than you do, you might think about pulling out of the race; or at least getting yourself a blimp to ride around in. For the math majors out there, the voters are going to say "we've got the 411 on 911, and we've got the 187 on your 2008." Anyone that understood that is probably either 666, 5150 or 420. Rudy still has a shot though, considering this election seems like a classic joke: a minister, a woman, a black guy, an actor, a lawyer, and a Mormon walk into a caucus …"

Tom Head: FACT. I'm withholding judgment until the Florida primary actually happens, but I think Giuliani made a mistake here. He was polling well enough in Florida early on that I can understand why this was an appealing strategy, but he was counting on none of his opponents gaining a bounce from the early primaries. Four of them did, so the best he'll get out of Florida is a narrow first-place finish--not enough to give him the kind of bounce or delegates he'll need to overcome Republican antipathy towards him in Southern states, as well as the head start that other candidates have received through their visibility in the media. I don't think Rudy Giuliani will be the Republican presidential nominee.

2 for 3. Man, Krunchy's got jokes!

4. Mitt Romney, despite a slow, and somewhat underwhelming start, will be the Republican nominee.

Krunchy Law: FACT. I think he should be the nominee, but I can see him hijacked by the conservatives; which he could possibly console with a Huckabee nomination as Veep. The reason I think he should be the nominee is this: unlike most of the Republican candidates of the last 10-15 years, he can see things in shades of grey. He doesn't have a set of absolutes that must be followed. As someone from Massachusetts, I can say that while he wasn't a great governor, he was pretty successful; especially since there are probably more people at a Jessica Simpson Film Festival then there are Republicans in the State Senate of Massachusetts. He came is 2nd in Iowa, a pretty conservative state. He came in 2nd in New Hampshire, a free-thinking Phish-head state. It looks like he might come in 3rd in South Carolina, another pretty conservative state. He could be viewed as a moderate, and if he's running against Clinton, I could actually see him winning, since she is such a polarizing figure. Besides, compared to Xenu, Intergalactic Jesus seems like an awesome Messiah, don't ya think?

Tom Head: FICTION. He stands a better chance of capturing the nomination than Giuliani does, and he's still leading in delegates, but I still don't think he'll come out of this process as the nominee. If you had asked me a month ago, I would have told you that the race would ultimately boil down to Giuliani vs. Romney--two visions of the Republican Party. Now neither of them could really be described as frontrunners. We have McCain and Huckabee emerging as much stronger candidates than their early fundraising might have suggested, and I don't see him fighting them both off to capture the nomination. I could certainly be wrong--the Republican race is an open field right now--but at this point, I'd have to bet on John McCain.

2 for 4. On the Republican side, it will be a tight race to the end between McCain and Romney. Thompson's done, Hunter just dropped out, and Huckabee was probably aiming for the VP spot the whole time.

That's it for Week 75. Enjoy the shortened work week and I'll see you all next week.