GOP (un)Civil War?

Posted by ikabod Crane on 02.01.2008

In this corner, McCain and Schwarzenegger! In that corner, Romney, Limbaugh, and every other AM Radio Conservative Shock Jock!

Roosevelt Republicans vs. Neo-Conservatives

Both McCain and his detractors can lay claim to historical pedigree within the Republican Party. McCain made allusions to Teddy Roosevelt frequently during the 2000 presidential campaign. McCain prides himself on strong, but sensible foreign policy along with being a deficit hawk. John McCain's concern about global climate change, something that Grand Strategists spend a lot of time thinking about even if the Limbaugh's of the world cast doubts, hearkens back to Roosevelt's concern for national parks and public lands. McCain's opposition to torture and shady clandestine prisons also ties him in with a long history of conservative concern about limiting government powers.

I make all of these points because the way this is likely to be spun in the sound bite media is the moderate Republicans vs. real conservative Republicans. Let's be clear, neo-conservatives have a claim on conservatism, but McCain is more traditional in many ways than they are. Consider that many congressional powers who backed W.'s deficit producing budgets also shut the government down in 1996 in an effort to balance the budget. These Republicans even voted to change the U.S. Constitution to demand balanced budgets 10 years before producing the largest deficits in U.S. history. Conservatism by definition ought to stagnate a bit, but this little episode shows conservatism did a 180 degree turn between 1996 and 2008. Therefore, when McCain gets attacked for not being conservative due to not voting for Bush's tax cuts and criticizing Bush's budgets, McCain can be said to have held firm to policies folk such as Rush Limbaugh supported in 1996.

Neo-conservatives differ from McCain by talking about empire and expanded presidential powers without any shame. Rudy Giuliani may have some similar views to the neo-cons when it comes to pursuing crime and terrorism at the potential expense of the U.S. Constitution. Neo-cons tended to have some sympathy for Great Society policies in their formative years and are not afraid of larger and expanded government so long as taxes remain low. The government spending supported by neo-cons tends to resemble something akin to a national industrial policy except that tax dollars are funneled by the billions toward "friendly" corporations. Similarly, neo-cons tend to want to radically deregulate to the point of privatizing sections of the military. The second largest foreign force in Iraq is not British, but belongs to private military contractors. Fueled by tax payer dollars such contractors have little oversight despite carrying out U.S. foreign policy (this is a frightening idea in my opinion). The U.S. has a history of colonialism that pre-dates the Cold War. After WWII, the U.S. was the world's most powerful nation and led a coalition of nations while also trying to fend off Soviet expansion in the developing world. The neo-cons are potentially just being honest with their aspirations of empire and U.S. preeminence. The legacy of empire builders is also old, so I am not going to argue that neo-cons have no claim on the mantle of conservatism.

Mitt Romney and the Neo-Cons: Not Their First Choice

At the 2004 GOP convention, McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Arnold Schwarzenegger were prominently featured in an attempt to appeal to moderates in the general election. Senator Bill Frist of Tennessee did his best to inherit the mantle of Bush's coalition. Frist was the anointed successor at the 2004 convention even if he was not featured to the extent of Arnold. Frist's flubbing of the Schiavo case by making a medical diagnosis from the floor of the U.S. Senate along with Trent Lott exacting some revenge on Frist scuttled those plans. Rudy Giuliani had the hard nosed approach to security, but lacked the ability to hold social conservatives in W.'s coalition. Enter mitt Romney. His detractors might call him a Ken Doll who is wonderful at flip flopping. His supporters see a strong executive and a celebrated business leader. In either case, he was not the neo-cons choice heading into the primaries. Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani dropping out have left conservatives who distrust John McCain with one choice. Romney may win the nomination, but if he does it will be because all of the King's Horses and all of the King's Men taped this coalition together again.

Social Conservatives Left Out – Was It All Worth It?

Mike Huckabee's victory in Iowa left me wondering just how powerful evangelical voters were within the GOP. Now that Huckabee has been shut out in Michigan, New Hampshire, Wyoming, Florida, Nevada and yes even South Carolina, it is apparent that religious conservatives are for the most part a third wheel for the GOP even if they delivered victory in 2004. Romney was pro-choice until 2 years ago. McCain was beaten by social conservatives in 2000 when Bush looked to be in trouble. After aligning with Bush and delivering a primary victory in 2000 and a general election victory in 2004, one has to wonder what social conservatives have gotten for their loyalty. Perhaps, Justices Alito and Roberts will lead to a change in abortion policy. If not, very little has come of social conservative loyalty. Consider that economic populism and social conservatism used to go hand in hand. Now, many farmers, factory workers and blue collar types who supported George W. Bush have seen economic policies enacted that accelerate the demise of their industries. Government welfare for corporations has risen, the federal government has expanded its powers, and social conservatives have seen their concerns for social decency, limited government and strong tradition ignored. Huckabee's economic populism may represent the next move for social conservatives. That likely benefits the McCain's and Schwarzenegger's of the GOP more so than W.'s successors.

Party Re-Alignment?

If the GOP nominates someone who repudiated W.s initial prosecution of the Iraq War and his tax cuts, it would be a major change for the GOP. Schwarzenegger and McCain both want to move ecological issues into a place of prominence for the GOP rather than being punch lines for conservative talk radio hosts. Arnold and the Maverick see new technology as being the source of economic growth for the nation rather than continuing a tight alliance with petrochemicals. The big question for this wing is can they be pro-life enough to align with the social conservatives. If so, the economic posture of someone like Schwarzenegger will appeal to blue collar workers with a plan for creating growth industries. The neo-con approach is basically to deregulate industries and funnel tax dollars to favored people and industries. That platform does not play as well among working class conservatives. If the neo-cons can maintain their ties with social conservatives the party will not realign. If the Roosevelt Republicans can pass the social test, a new form of Roosevelt progressivism will become the norm for the GOP. Powerful forces in conservative radio and in board rooms do not want to see this happen, so McCain has his work cut out for him, but if he wins NY and CA on February 5 it may not matter in the short term.

Finally, Thanks I Found My Humor

I want to thank everyone for the positive feedback regarding my George Costanza column last week. Much like Hillary found her voice, I found my sense of humor. If only I could have my eyes water in New Hampshire while typing this, but instead I am living the dream by eating a block of cheese the size of a car battery as I write.

PS - New Media?

Rush Limbaugh recently has been talking about how the "new media" allows for conservatives to know the real score. My question is what new media is Limbaugh talking about? Larry King launched Ross Perot to an extent in 1992. Limbaugh made a huge mark on U.S. politics between 1991 and 1994. He helped lead to the Gingrich revolution. When the Contract With America stalled, Limbaugh remained a major factor in U.S. politics, but his power declined to an extent as well. Talk radio was new media 10-15 years ago, but now new media is youtube which sunk George Allen, it is the vast network of support candidates such as Barack Obama and Howard Dean gathered. I will freely admit conservatives have been more effective at using mediums such as direct mailings and talk radio than have progressives. However, the even newer media seems to be allowing Democrats to over take the GOP in fund raising and to creating networks of voters who might never have otherwise been linked. Rush Limbaugh is a dinosaur when he speaks about himself as part of the new media. Some dinosaurs have bite, but the future does not belong to dinosaurs. In that sense, I think the Clintons, Limbaugh and any number of old guard figures in each party may win the short term battle and get their preferred horse into the general election, but the war is already over and the old guard has at best one more presidential election to dominate.