The Dynamic Center 2.08.08: Could the Democrats go Boom? or Dr. Superdelegate

Posted by ikabod Crane on 02.08.2008

Gen. “Buck” Turgidson may have said, “Gee, I wish we had one of them doomsday machines.” My guess is the GOP is glad its nomination will finish more quickly and quietly than the Democratic nomination process. Here is a look at 3 Doomsday scenarios for the Democrats.

Mitt Romney suspending his campaign more or less throws the Republican presidential nomination to John McCain. Mike Huckabee is hanging around, but Huckabee has few options for victory outside of North Carolina, Virginia, Mississippi, Louisiana and Kentucky. The math does not favor Huckabee and his populism will not get the talk-radio crowd backing him versus McCain. For better or worse, the Republican nominee is likely to be John McCain. This makes matters far more simple.

Democratic Tug-o-War

There are a lot of reasons to think the GOP manner of picking a presidential candidate is better than the Democrat's method. Barack Obama looks like he will win the majority of the remaining February contests. Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska, Maine, Washington, DC, Virginia, Maryland, Hawaii, and Wisconsin could all go Obama's way. Maine is one of the few states where Hillary looks strong, but if Obama wins all of the other remaining February states few will remember the Maine. Regardless, Obama could win Maine as he has done very well in states that use the caucus format for selecting delegates.

Hillary Clinton currently leads the total delegate count due to a superdelegate lead, but slightly trails among delegates selected by primaries and caucuses. Hillary has won states that resemble the demographics found in Texas. Her strength among core Democratic groups also could bode well for her in Ohio and Pennsylvania. If she survives February, the advantage may shift back in her direction. Surviving February will entail finding new sources for fundraising as Obama is swamping her in campaign cash. If Obama has momentum from a string of victories and keeps raising money, Hillary may drop Ohio and win a closer than hoped victory in Texas. If Obama turns out the vote in Cleveland and gets younger supporters to the poll, this is the scenario Hillary faces.

Doomsday Scenario #1 – Superdelegates Decide the Race against the Delegate Winner

The Wall Street Journal notes that roughly 450 super delegates remain uncommitted. If Obama or Clinton wins more delegates tied to primaries and caucuses but loses the nomination based upon superdelegates, it would be a system shock to a "democratic process." This scenario looks far more likely for Obama than Clinton. I would expect that a movement made up of enthused sometimes first time voters are not going to take their guy being denied the nomination based upon procedural rules well. This could lead to protests in front of the convention and general chaos. For the convention to not be a disaster, the winner needs to be the candidate with more regular delegates.

Doomsday Scenario #2 – Superdelegates Decide the Race as Michigan and Florida Make Determining the Regular Delegate Leader Impossible

If the Clintons can make the case that seated Michigan and Florida delegates would give them a regular delegate lead, it will be unclear as to who won the race for delegates tied to votes. Of course all of the campaigns agreed not to campaign in Michigan and Florida and not to take the delegates, but this may provide an excuse to force things to the brink. If this is the case all hell could break lose. The Democratic National Committee is talking about holding caucuses in the coming weeks in each state in order to seat their delegates. This would solve some of the Michigan and Florida problem. Obama could win Michigan, but Florida looks like Clinton country. Therefore, adding caucuses may simply split these delegates. To avoid this scenario Clinton or Obama needs to establish a lead among delegates that exceeds what Michigan and Florida could reasonably add to the opposition's total. Otherwise, all of the problems associated with scenario # 1 apply here as well.

Doomsday Scenario #3 – Puerto Rico Decides the Nomination

This article highlights that Puerto Rico actually does not use a winner-take-all approach to awarding its delegates. Puerto Rico does have 63 delegates and awards them at the end of this process. Puerto Rico is treated like a state (or the District of Columbia) by the Democratic Party in the primary process. Puerto Rico could land some late delegates for either campaign in a fight for supremacy. 63 delegates represents 3% of what either candidate needs to be the nominee, but Puerto Rico does not have electoral votes and does not vote in the general election. If a campaign claims the nomination based upon a strong showing in Puerto Rico, it does not bode well for a peaceful resolution to this process.

My Prediction: Superdelegates will Wait and Line Up Behind the Winner of Regular Delegates

The Democrats do not want a repeat of the 1968 convention mess. Denver also seems less conducive for crowd control than Chicago as riot police cannot push the discontented masses into Lake Michigan. Therefore, I think the Democratic Brahmans who happen to be superdelegates will wait for this process to play out. If Obama or Clinton establishes an insurmountable lead among delegates tied to votes, that candidate will then receive an infusion of superdelegates. I think this slightly favors Barrack Obama as he already holds a small lead in the race for delegates tied to votes. He can add to that lead in February and use his money to run well in hostile territory. Also, Obama has spent the past three years helping campaign for other Democrats in and around the country. Some of these Democrats are also aware that Obama will fight harder and have coat tails in more locations than will Hillary. That means many elected officials, as well as those hoping to get elected, will work hard for Obama in the remaining states. In all honesty, if Hillary wins the nomination the last money she will spend in places such as Texas will be in the primary. Obama will try harder to win on the road in red state territory and this should help him strengthen his organization and add fire to his movement.

On the flip side, the superdelegates may not know what to do if Puerto Rico, Michigan and Florida give Hillary a lead among regular delegates. Such a lead would violate the agreement made by the campaigns as well as making voters who cannot vote in November the determining factor in the nomination process. Obama and Clinton need to make it easy on the superdelegates by establishing a clear lead. If the 2000 election created a perfect scenario for putting pressure on the weaknesses in the general election system, the 2008 Democratic primary is putting equal pressure on their system for selecting a presidential nominee.