Obama vs. Clinton Resumes With Louisiana, Washington, & Nebraska Voting Today

Posted by Ashish on 02.09.2008

Look ahead to today's states...

With Super Tuesday now history, the bitter battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton resumes today with caucuses in Nebraska and Washington, as well as a primary in Louisiana. Maine will also hold its caucus on Sunday. These are the first states to vote since 22 voted on Tuesday and more or less left Obama and Clinton in a delegate tie.

Looking ahead to this weekend's states, Louisiana is the only primary and strongly favors Obama. The state has a large African American population which Obama has been grabbing nearly 80% of so far. No public polling is available of the state but it would be viewed as a major upset if Clinton wins. 56 delegates are up for grabs and Obama should be able to get more than half of those.

Nebraska is another state that Obama should do well in. It's a red state caucus and Obama has done extremely well in red state caucus thus far and he crushed Clinton in neighboring Kansas. He has shown that his organization is much stronger than Clinton in most of these smaller states that she seems to have ignored in some part (other than Nevada since that was an early state). 24 delegates will be up for grabs here and no public polling is available.

Washington should also be a good state for Obama, but may not be as strong as some seem to think. Washington has a huge Asian American population and Obama has gotten crushed by Clinton among Asians. Obama did draw 20,000+ in Seattle yesterday, but again, the key will be whether he is able to get his supporters out to caucus. He has shown he can do so in past states, but Washington seems a bit difficult in many ways. Washington is the big prize of the weekend with 78 delegates. A poll just released has Obama up 50% to 45%, which is basically a statistical tie. Plus, it's not like polls really mean much this year.

Maine on Sunday favors Clinton despite being a caucus. Maine is in the Northeast which has proven to be Clinton country. The demographics here, mostly white, not many college students, lot of older people, seem to favor Clinton. 24 delegates will be decided and the state has no polling available.

The Virgin Islands also vote this weekend, but only have 3 delegates up for grabs.

One thing Obama really needs to focus on is the expectations game. The media continues to act as if Obama should win every state in February, otherwise it will be a disappointment. Expectations for him are becoming very high and he needs to have his people out in the media downplaying expectations just like the Clinton camp does (the Clintons acted as if wins in two states where they had double digit leads, New Jersey and Massachusetts, were upsets and the media actually bought it).

And while he may not win every state, Obama does need to do well in the states this weekend and the rest of the month to build up to the Texas and Ohio primaries on March 4th where Clinton seems to be a big favorite.

I'll check in with results and thoughts tonight after the states are decided.