Wisconsin as a Trojan Horse for Hillary Clinton?

Posted by Dan Martin on 02.15.2008

All of the talk of looking ahead to Texas and Ohio has me wondering if Hillary’s camp is downplaying their Wisconsin chances while simultaneously trying for s strong showing.

The polling data for Wisconsin has been scant to this point (as of 2-14-2008). The polls that have been taken show Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton but with leads falling within the margin for error. Demographics in Wisconsin seem to favor Obama. Madison is full of young enthusiastic college students, Milwaukee is 40% African American, and the liberal identity of the state will likely approve of Obama's Iraq stance more so than Hillary's. Still, Hillary will want some positive spin and positive news headed into the March 4 primaries that include Rhode Island, Vermont and of course Ohio and Texas.

Where will this good news come from between now and March 4?

Washington state in an odd step has both a primary and a caucus with all of the pledged delegates tied to the caucus that Obama already won earlier this month. One would expect Washington to go to Obama again when the state votes for a second time on February 19. This could help Obama win uncommitted super delegates in Washington. Hawaii holds caucuses on February 19 as well. Barack Obama was born in Hawaii and should also win there. That leaves Wisconsin as the place where the Clinton campaign can start selling a comeback story.

What Result Can be Spun in Hillary's Direction?

A win would obviously be a story the Clinton campain would crow about in the two weeks that separate Wisconsin's primary from Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont's primaries. If one thinks this is impossible just think about New Hampshire where every poll, every report about enthusiasm on the ground and every sign of a huge turnout made New Hampshire look like an Obama victory in waiting. Instead, Hillary won the popular vote in New Hampshire by 3% and split the delegates with Obama.

Setting aside the obvious, if Hillary keeps the margin in Wisconsin to 5% or less, she can argue that the lopsided losses of early and mid February were due to a home court advantage for Obama and that the home field is moving in her direction now. She can also argue that all of Obama's wins did not translate into a major bounce due to a close final tally in Wisconsin. Additionally, Hillary can crow that she is just starting to get tough on the young politician and that this proves he is not as vetted as she is. The fact is Obama has been part of more elections than Hillary, but Hillary has lived through the Clinton Wars of the 1990's, two presidential elections, and multiple statewide races in Arkansas as the spouse of the candidate on the ballot.

Keeping the margin close and the delegate count close in Wisconsin is key for Hillary to make this pitch. That is why despite looking ahead to Texas and Ohio, Hillary and Bill are spending time and money in Wisconsin. Keeping the race close will mean not neglecting their supporters in Wisconsin. One factor working against Hillary is the role independent voters may play in Wisconsin. The primary is totally open and with McCain more or less locking up the GOP nomination, independents are likely to gravitate to Obama. Hillary on the other hand may benefit if some GOP voters decide to vote in the Democratic primary and support her due to thinking she is an easier November opponent for McCain. It is hard to imagine too many Republicans doing this so independents may throw the margin of victory above that 5% threshold.

Selling the Spin with Low Expectations

If the Clintons obviously work hard and end up with a close loss, it will be harder to spin the close loss in their favor. They must somehow work hard, call in every bit of support their networks can provide and still look disinterested. If they pull this off, they can gloat about how Wisconsin shows the new campaign staff and sharper rhetoric are working. For any of this to work, the Clintons have to get the media to buy into the idea that Obama is the heavy favorite and that Wisconsin being close was a surprise. If the media buys into this the Clintons can call upon the memory of the comeback kid one more time and try to make a stretch run for the nomination.

Remaining Obama States: Are They Enough?

Barack Obama currently leads in all categories except for superdelegates. He has more delegates, more pledged delegates, more state victories, more total votes and more money on hand than Hillary does. Barack Obama has won 21 states, the District of Columbia and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Hillary Clinton has won 12 states and American Samoa. The conventional wisdom has Obama winning Hawaii, Wisconsin, Oregon, Mississippi, North Carolina, and South Dakota. Vermont might also go Obama's way. For the sake of argument if Obama wins all of those states minus one, it would leave him with 28 state victories. If his campaign manager is correct and Hillary cannot catch him among pledged delegates will winning all but one of the remaining Obama favorable states be enough to take the nomination?

I lean toward yes because of what happened in the 2000 general election. If under the current rules of nominating a Democratic candidate Obama wins the majority of pledged delegates, it will be very hard for a party that argued vociferously in 2000 that every vote should count to then say anything different than their nominee is the candidate that has the most pledged delegates right? This is especially true if Obama maintains his lead in raw votes. Keeping those margins above what Florida or Michigan might have contributed to Hillary's tally is important too. Still, Obama has created circumstances where Hillary will need to not only win states she is favored to win, but also take a few states away from Obama and win by larger than expected margins if she is to be the nominee. Of course, Obama victories in remaining states such as West Virginia, Kentucky or Ohio would go a long way to securing his nomination. Conversely, if Hillary has to steal some victories, Wisconsin is as good as any place to start pilfering states and delegates.