Momentum: Why Rhode Island, Vermont and Wyoming Matter for Obama & Clinton
Posted by ikabod Crane on 02.25.2008
We all know Texas and Ohio vote on March 4, but Vermont and Rhode Island also hold primaries on the same day. Wyoming holds caucuses on March 8. These three contests present opportunity to one campaign and challenges to the other.
Size does matter and therefore Texas and Ohio are getting a lot of attention for their upcoming primaries. Various scenarios are floating around as to how these might play out. If Obama wins both states, the Democratic Primary is over. Hillary's best case scenario is to win by a respectable margin in Ohio and to win the Texas popular vote while at least breaking even in the delegate count. Such wins would at least stop the bleeding and give Hillary some time to get her campaign back on its feet even if time and delegate opportunities are running out.
Clinton: Rhode Island Could Add Momentum
If Clinton does hold serve and win Ohio by 5-10 points and win Texas by 1-5 points, it will be her best day since New Hampshire. This could still be undone by Texas' caucus and delegate allotment system. Still, if she at least breaks even with Texas delegates while winning Ohio outright, Hillary will be happy. Rhode Island also votes on March 4 and is a solid Clinton lean. Hillary spent time campaigning in Rhode Island on February 24 while Obama was pounding the pavement in Ohio. This demonstrates Clinton's need to win in Rhode Island. Given her 56-41 victory in Massachusetts on Super Tuesday, Rhode Island looks like fertile ground for Hillary. Nevertheless, she is spending time and resources fighting for Rhode Island because a loss there would undermine any momentum she might gain in Ohio and Texas. A Win in Rhode Island could help Hillary reverse a string of losses with 3 big wins even if Rhode Island is not a spacious state.
Obama: Vermont and Wyoming Firewalls?
Life looks good on the Obama side of the fence. Since Super Tuesday, Obama has tallied 9 victories in areas that have electoral votes: DC, VA, MD, NE, LA, WI, WA, ME, and HI. Obama also added victories in the U.S. Virgin Islands and the amorphous sounding Democrats Abroad contest. Obama looks strong in Vermont and this is important for him on March 4. If Obama's worst case scenario happens of Ohio and Rhode Island going solidly for Hillary while he loses the Texas vote, he can win Vermont and not have any sort of 9-0 (or 11-0) streak going against him. Wyoming's Caucuses are held just 4 days later and Obama has a strong track record in both Red States and Caucus states. A win in Wyoming could help snap a news cycle that might be centered on a rebounding Clinton campaign.
3 – 2 versus 4-1 versus 5 – 0 Heading into Mississippi
On March 11, one week after the Buckeye, Lone Star, Ocean State, Ben and Jerry's primaries conclude Mississippi votes. Mississippi looks like strong Obama territory given that he won Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana by solid margins. If Obama wins Mississippi, then he will have won the final primary of March before a 5 week break occurs. Pennsylvania does not vote until April 22. Obama has controlled the news cycles since Super Tuesday with win after win. Hillary could do a similar thing if she wins 4 or 5 of the contests in March. If Obama wins Vermont, Wyoming and Mississippi, that narrative will be at least somewhat tempered. That will be especially true if Obama wins the delegate count in Texas.
March 11 is the end of the compressed primary season. Conventional wisdom says that if Obama does not end this thing with a win in Texas and/or Ohio and all of the remaining primaries are relevant that Obama will win North Carolina, Oregon, Montana and South Dakota. Hillary is favored to win Pennsylvania, Kentucky, West Virginia and Puerto Rico. Indiana could go either way as it neighbors Illinois and is a Red State, but also has reflected the pre-Wisconsin demographics that favored Hillary Clinton. Kentucky also could be flipped to an Obama state if enough ground work is done.
Conclusions?
Conventional wisdom has not been worth a lot in this primary season. Obama has more money and a stronger ground game than Hillary Clinton. Regardless, Hillary wins in Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania would inject doubt into the outcome of this race. If Hillary is to win this race, she has to do more than just win big states by small margins. She has to win some states she is not expected to win. Otherwise, Obama's pledged delegate and raw vote lead will tell the tale. Therefore, small states and raw votes do count.
Hillary has to win states such as Rhode Island in order to get the momentum. Simply running even the rest of the way will not be enough. Don't believe me? Think about how different the post Super Tuesday narrative would be if Hillary had won Maine and Wisconsin. Small and medium sized states contribute to perceptions about momentum and to actual delegate totals. Obama's team has known this for a long time. Hillary's team has to learn that if she is to revive her chances.
One Prediction
Barack Obama wins more than just Vermont on March 4.
Good article. Mississippi is going to serve as the next major battle after March 4th and Obama winning big there will probably restart all the negative Clinton stories even if she wins OH and TX.
Posted By: Ashish (Registered) on February 25, 2008 at 02:15 AM
I am so glad to see that someone else has also noticed Obama having been running a negative campaign as well. My only regret is that the media has not confronted him on why he deliberately avoided saying on camera his mailer falsely claimed her healthcare plan would force people to buy health insurance even if they can't afford it. He only mentioned the mandating everyone part but didn't have the integrity to own up the 'even if you can't afford it' part. Clinton's plan provides subsidies to people who can't afford buying health insurance. Obama's plan force only people who are more like to make claims to have health insurance, thus likely to increas insurance premiums.
Posted By: zf (Guest) on February 25, 2008 at 02:32 AM
Michelle Obama's America -- And Mine
By Michelle Malkin
February 20, 2008
Like Michelle Obama, I am a "woman of color." Like Michelle Obama, I am a working mother of two young children. Like Michelle Obama, I am a member of the 13th generation of Americans born since the founding of our great nation.
Unlike Michelle Obama, I can't keep track of the number of times I've been proud -- really proud -- of my country since I was born and privileged to live in it.
At a speech in Milwaukee this week on behalf of her husband's Democratic presidential campaign, Mrs. Obama remarked, "For the first time in my adult lifetime, I am really proud of my country, and not just because Barack has done well, but because I think people are hungry for change."
Mrs. Obama's statement was met with warm applause from other Barack supporters who have apparently also been devoid of pride in their country for their adult lifetimes. Or maybe it was just a Pavlovian response to the word "change." What a sad, empty, narcissistic, ungrateful, unthinking lot.
I'm just seven years younger than Mrs. Obama. We've grown up and lived in the same era. And yet, her self-absorbed attitude is completely foreign to me. What planet is she living on? Since when was now the only time the American people have ever been "hungry for change"? Michelle, ma belle, Barack is not the center of the universe. Newsflash: The Obamas did not invent "change" any more than Hillary invented "leadership" or John McCain invented "straight talk."
We were both adults when the Berlin Wall fell, Michelle. That was earth-shattering change.
We've lived through two decades' worth of peaceful, if contentious election cycles under the rule of law, which have brought about "change" and upheaval, both good and bad.
We were adults through several launches of the space shuttle, in case you were snoozing. And as adults, we've witnessed and benefited from dizzyingly rapid advances in technology, communications, science and medicine pioneered by American entrepreneurs who yearned to change the world and succeeded. You want "change"? Go ask the patients whose lives have been improved and extended by American pharmaceutical companies that have flourished under the best economic system in the world.
If American ingenuity, a robust constitutional republic and the fall of communism don't do it for you, hon, then how about American heroism and sacrifice?
How about every Memorial Day? Every Veterans Day? Every Independence Day? Every Medal of Honor ceremony? Has she never attended a welcome home ceremony for the troops?
For me, there's the thrill of the Blue Angels roaring over cloudless skies. And the somber awe felt amid the hallowed waters that surround the sunken U.S.S. Arizona at the Pearl Harbor memorial.
Every naturalization ceremony I've attended, where hundreds of new Americans raised their hands to swear an oath of allegiance to this land of liberty, has been a moment of pride for me. So have the awesome displays of American compassion at home and around the world. When millions of Americans rallied to help victims of the 2004 tsunami in Southeast Asia -- including members of the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group that sped from Hong Kong to assist survivors -- my heart filled with pride. It did again when the citizens of Houston opened their arms to Hurricane Katrina victims and folks across the country rushed to their churches, and Salvation Army and Red Cross offices to volunteer.
Posted By: Jerry Chui (Guest) on February 25, 2008 at 02:50 AM
I guess the great thing about the internet also cuts both ways. 2 of the 3 posts not written by the author have nothing to do with the column. One also clearly looks like a cut and paste job. It is all within the letter of the law of the internet, but political discourse requires some modicum of an attention span right?
Posted By: Dan Martin (Registered) on February 25, 2008 at 06:45 AM
What are smoking Dan? Rhode Island gives Hillary momnetum if she doesn't STRONGLY defeat Obama in Texas AND Ohio???? Have you done the math lately?? This race is over. Hillary needs to go home and let the general election get underway. Her continued vitriol only points to the fact that she doesn't want just any Democrat to win in November. The only Democrat acceptable to HRC is herself. What a painful thing to watch.
Posted By: RChap22 (Guest) on February 25, 2008 at 09:07 PM
Rchap - I am saying if she wins 3 of 4 on March 4 the momentum storyline reverses. The math may not change much, but the storyline would change. Winning 3 of 4 is better than 2 of 4. Right?
Posted By: Dan Martin (Registered) on February 25, 2008 at 10:42 PM
STAY CURRENT