Winning Texas & Ohio Won't Be Enough For Clinton

Posted by Ashish on 02.29.2008

A look ahead to the states following March 4th...

By now, everyone knows that Hillary Clinton needs to win both Texas and Ohio on Tuesday to remain in the race for the Democratic nomination. Right now, polls have her slightly up in Ohio and slightly down (or tied) in Texas. She could still win both states, though the idea of her winning by big margins seems unrealistic. But if we look at the rest of the Democratic primary schedule, even if she wins in TX and OH, it remains very unlikely that she will come close to catching up Obama's pledged delegate lead. Let's examine...

CURRENT SITUATION: The current situation, according to NBC, is that Obama has a 156 pledged delegate lead (1192 for Obama, 1036 for Clinton). Clinton leads among Superdelegates 254 to 203, for a net of 51. So she trails in total delegates by 105. It's also worth nothing that since Super Tuesday, Obama has gained 33 superdelegates while Clinton has lost six, meaning that superdelegates are, at best, divided between the two candidates.

Now, let's look at the remaining states and show what would happen in a BEST CASE SCENARIO for Clinton and a WORST CASE SCENARIO for Obama.

MARCH 4TH

TEXAS: Right now, according to most polls, Texas is more or less a tie. But keep in mind that Texas awards a chunk of its delegates based on the primary vote and another chunk based on a caucus. Texas also awards delegates based on district and the districts with the most delegates (large African American communities and Austin) are mostly Obama strongholds. And we all know how strong Obama is in caucuses. So let's give Clinton the benefit of the doubt and say she wins the Texas primary vote by 5 points (no recent poll has her up by that much). Because of the way delegates are awarded, she will likely STILL lose the delegate count from the primary vote. And in the caucus, one would assume she, at best, may tie Obama. But let's give her a +5 delegates out of Texas anyway, which is probably a best case scenario for her. This means Obama now has a total 151 pledged delegate lead over her.

OHIO: Right now, according to most polls, Clinton has a slight lead in Ohio. Let's say she wins Ohio by 10 points (no poll has her up by that much). We can then estimate that she may come out of Ohio with a +20 delegates, another best case scenario for her. That would bring Obama's delegate lead down to 131 pledged delegates.

VERMONT: Right now, polls have Obama with a huge lead. Let's say he doesn't do as well as the polls say and only wins the state by 10 points, 55% to 45%. That means he would net roughly +3 delegates out of the state. So now his pledged delegate lead is 134 delegates.

RHODE ISLAND: Right now, polls have Clinton up solid. Let's say she does better than the polls indicate and wins by 16 points, 58% to 42%. That means she will likely net roughly +4 delegates out of the state. So now Obama's pledged delegate lead is 130 delegates.


MARCH 8TH

WYOMING: Wyoming is a red state caucus, the type that Obama has usually crushed Clinton in. He has more or less won states like this by 20-30 points and it's well known that Clinton has not put any organization into this state and has put everything she has into Texas and Ohio. But even still, let's say somehow Clinton wins this and nets +1 delegate. That means Obama's pledged delegate lead goes down to 129.


MARCH 11TH

MISSISSIPPI: Mississippi has one of the highest percentage of African American voters in the entire country and almost no Hispanics. States like this have been going to Obama by 20-30 points. But even still, let's say he only wins by 10 points, a worst case scenario for him. He will net roughly +5 delegates here. That puts his lead back up to 134 pledged delegates.


APRIL 22ND

PENNSYLVANIA: The most recent polls out of Pennsylvania have Clinton up slightly. Let's say she experiences no downward movement in the next month or so, something that has basically not happened in any state that wasn't one of her homestates. Infact, let's say she IMPROVES in the polls and wins the state by 10 points. That means she will net roughly +25 delegates out of the state. That takes Obama's pledged delegate lead down to 109.


MAY 3RD

GUAM: Little is known about how Guam would vote but it is a caucus state and has likely been ignored by the Clinton camp. But anyway, let's say that she narrowly wins and they split the 4 delegates, 2-2. That means Obama remains ahead by 109 pledged delegates.


MAY 6TH

INDIANA: Polls already have Obama leading in Indiana by double digits. But let's say he slips a bit and Clinton manages to win the state by a few points and nets +5 delegates. That takes his pledged delegate lead down to 104.

NORTH CAROLINA: Polls already have Obama leading this state by double digits as well and keep in mind that he won South Carolina by over 25 points. But let's say John Edwards (who is from North Carolina) endorses Clinton and that Obama fails to perform as well as he is supposed to and that she narrowly beats Obama, splitting the delegates. That means Obama remains ahead by 104 pledged delegates.


MAY 13TH

WEST VIRGINIA: Obama won Virginia by over 20 points and should perform well in West Virginia. But let's say he only wins by 5 points, he would still net somewhere around +4 delegates, putting his lead up to 108 pledged delegates.


MAY 20TH

KENTUCKY: This is another Southern red state, the type Obama has done very well in. But let's say he somehow loses this state and let's give Clinton +3 delegates. His lead is now 105 pledged delegates.

OREGON: Oregon is the type of liberal state that Obama should do VERY well in. A realistic figure would probably have him winning by double digits, but let's say he only wins by 5 points. That means he would net roughly +5 delegates, putting his lead up to 110 pledged delegates.


JUNE 3RD

MONTANA: This is another midwest red state and Obama has won similar states by 20-30+ points. But let's say Clinton somehow wins anyway and nets +2 delegates. That takes his pledged delegate lead down to 107.

SOUTH DAKOTA: Obama won North Dakota by over 20 points and ND is not very different from SD. But let's again say she manages to win narrowly here and nets +1 delegate, decreasing his lead to 106 pledged delegates.


JUNE 7TH

Puerto Rico: This is a caucus and Obama always does very well in caucuses. This is also an area where Obama will likely be better organized, and he also has the support of the main Democratic politicians in Puerto Rico. But let's say Clinton manages a slight win here and nets +5 delegates, that puts Obama's lead at 101 pledged delegates.


So in this WORST CASE SCENARIO for Obama where he loses EVERY STATE from here on out except Mississippi, Oregon, West Virginia, and Vermont, he would still end the primary season with a 101 PLEDGED DELEGATE LEAD. When you include the superdelegates that have already stated a preference, his lead is 50 DELEGATES. That means to win the nomination, Clinton would have to convince the remaing 350 or so superdelegates to ignore Obama's 101 pledged delegate lead and his popular vote lead (which he would have at this point) and more or less steal the nomination for her (which would likely tear the party apart and cost the Democrats the election in November). Superdelegates have shown no indication at all that they would do this and infact superdelegates are currently moving quickly to Obama (he has gained 33 superdelegates since February 5th, Clinton has lost six). Even one of her most loyal supporters and friends, John Lewis, switched to Obama this week.

So, just to recap, she will have to win OH & TX by 15+ points, win Pennsylvania by double digits, and then win every other state including states where she already trails by double digits such as Indiana and North Carolina and states that heavily favor Obama like South Dakota, Wyoming, and Kentucky. She would also have to keep Obama from winning by much in Mississippi (where he should win by 15-20 points), West Virginia, Oregon, and Vermont. And all that would just lead to her more or less finishing in a pledged delegate TIE with Obama at the end. She would then have to explain why superdelegates should pick her even though virtually every single poll out shows Obama performing better in the general election than her.

In short, winning TX and OH won't be enough for Clinton.