Obama Could Be Holding Superdelegate Surprise
Posted by Ashish on 03.04.2008
Is he readying a major push regardless of tonight's results?
Tom Brokaw reported on MSNBC today that sources inside the Obama camp have told him that they are sitting on 50 superdelegate endorsements that they have not yet announced and that they are ready to go public with those endorsements soon.
If this news is true, it appears that the Obama camp may push to end the race very soon, regardless of what happens in Texas and Ohio tonight. If Obama really does have 50 new superdelegates waiting in the wings, including at least one high profile one like Bill Richardson (who all but endorsed Obama on Sunday), it could crush whatever momentum Clinton gains out of her expected wins tonight and would make the math for her to win the nomination virtually impossible. Clinton's only path to the nomination is to win the vast majority of superdelegate votes from here on out to make up for Obama's pledged delegate lead which she will never catch. If he takes the superdelegate lead, it would destroy one of Clinton's few remaining ways to win the nomination. And also, again if true, this would seem to indicate that many in the party don't like Clinton's increasingly negative attacks on Obama and fear that she may hurt the party's chances against McCain in November. I highly doubt that many in the party want this race to go on much longer and Pennsylvania, where Clinton is hoping to fight on to, is on April 22nd. Who knows what kind of negative attacks she will unleash from now until then on Obama who, unless something completely crazy happens, will be the Democratic nominee. Her stating that she and McCain had experience while Obama only had a speech probably did her more harm than good in the eyes of superdelegates who care less about who wins between Obama and Clinton and more about party unity and winning in November. Letting Clinton continue to attack Obama and letting her try to rip the party apart by winning the nomination against the will of the voters will really hurt the party's chances to win in November.
Also keep in mind that Obama still hasn't announced his February fundraising total, a number expected to be over $50 million. It looks like the Obama camp is holding on to more than a few aces incase things don't go well tonight.
In one sense, if I was Obama I would let them commit if he wins either Texas or Ohio, but if he loses both maybe have them commit after a solid win in Mississippi. I think baking into the nomination could look bad even if the math more or less says this is over. Check Slate.com's delegate counter (http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/) even if Hillary wins all 16 remaining contests by 14% each she would be behind in pledged delegates. She has to win all 16 by 16% in order to overtake Obama in pledged delegates. Given that he is likely to win some states Vermont, Oregon, Mississippi and delegate rich North Carolina. This would further tangle the math. So basically any loss by Obama that is by fewer than 16% is not hurting him that badly and any win pushes that 16% victory threshold even higher for Clinton. So yes it is probably over, but I think getting the 50 delegates after a big win in Mississippi would look better. By the way, the weather is bad in Ohio today and that may dampen turnout but who it dampens will be key to figuring its impact. Younger people may not be as fazed by cold nasty weather so who knows?
Posted By: Dan Martin (Registered) on March 04, 2008 at 04:57 PM
I will become Republican if my vote for Obama does not count. If he gets the nomination and McCain uses Hilary's ammo, it just shows that the Clinton's only care about themselves. I like to think that TRUE democrats are civil. If she is on the ticket, I am a republican this year for the first time. I will be saying "My Friends..." real fast.
Posted By: Ann (Guest) on March 05, 2008 at 10:13 AM
STAY CURRENT