Ohio Lessons for Pennsylvania

Posted by ikabod Crane on 03.07.2008

What Barack Obama needs to learn from Ohio if he is to be a stronger candidate.

While I live in one of the 5 counties that Barack Obama won in Ohio, the majority of the Ohio returns were not pretty for the Obama camp. An ice storm in Cleveland may have depressed turnout among some of Obama's supporters. Still, the 10 point loss was far worse than most expected in the Buckeye state. An even worse side effect for Obama was his failure to win the Texas primary. If he won Texas by forcing Hillary to spend time and money in Ohio, a 10 point loss would have been acceptable. Instead momentum from a perception standpoint has shifted.

Expectations Game

One narrative that could have come out of March 4 was that Obama trailed Ohio and Texas by over 20 points each 3 weeks before the primaries and therefore his close loss in Texas and 10 point loss in Ohio represented an upward swing for Barack Obama. That narrative coupled with the delegate math could have left Obama looking stronger headed into Wyoming and Mississippi. Obama has to paint himself as an underdog in Pennsylvania. His big 17 point victory in Wisconsin got some wondering if he was poised to knock Clinton out. Logic dictated that if he could win in Wisconsin he could win in Ohio. That set the expectation up that a loss in Ohio was a major disappointment. The thing was Wisconsin allows for people to register to vote on the day of the primary and has a progressive state university. Obama certainly won the universities in Ohio, but he got clobbered among voters who never went to college.

Set the Tone as an Underdog in PA and then Accentuate Strengths

Obama has to win the youth vote and African American vote convincingly in Pennsylvania. Voters in PA have to register 30 days prior to the primary, so the April 22 primary allows for team Obama to register needed voters. Simply put, Obama's camp must get college students registered across Pennsylvania. This will not be enough to win the state and may not be enough to keep the margin of victory under 20 points, but it will be key to preventing a delegate disaster in Pennsylvania. So long as Obama posts respectable results, he can maintain a robust delegate lead. If he is clearly the underdog with low expectations in Pennsylvania, anything closer than 20 points could come across as a reasonable result. In fact, Obama can argue that this is Hillary's last chance to make a serious dent in his lead and a serious dent likely means a 67-33 victory. That seems highly unlikely if Obama wins students and African American voters by a large margin.

Get into the Rural Areas

Obama won the counties that house Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati and Dayton in Ohio, but got crushed in rural areas. Obama likely cannot win the rural areas of Pennsylvania, but he has to be stronger than he was in Ohio. His network of supporters must be strong about attending town hall meetings and finding ways to encounter rural citizens without annoying them. The annoyance thing is important because I can say in Ohio I received upwards of 10 calls from either the Clinton or Obama teams in the final 72 hours of the campaign. It got to be pretty annoying even if the networks of support were strong for both candidates. Finally, Obama himself needs to get in a bus and tour all of Pennsylvania. Winning Philadelphia and Pittsburgh might keep things close, but Obama must force Clinton to earn her support in rural areas.

Talk Math and Link Pennsylvania to North Carolina

The two largest states that remain are Pennsylvania with 158 delegates and North Carolina with 116 delegates. Obama is leading in North Carolina and needs to emphasize that. Pennsylvania is really the only big fish that Clinton can still land. States such as Indiana (72 pledged delegates), Oregon (52), and Kentucky (51) are each medium sized fish, but none seem to be game changers for either candidate. Puerto Rico also has 55 pledged delegates. Other than Pennsylvania, Hillary's best shots at big margins of victory come in Kentucky, Puerto Rico and West Virginia (28 delegates). If Obama can portray Pennsylvania as being roughly equal to North Carolina or a combination of North Carolina and Mississippi (33 delegates), then keeping the race within 20 points is likely enough delegate defense to keep the narrative in his favor. The narrative is important because Hillary cannot win the pledged delegate math, so her only avenue of attack is to portray Obama as floundering, losing steam and unprepared. That may be enough to deliver super delegates to Clinton, but it is not enough to change the pledged delegate math. Hillary has to win the narrative war and Obama can blunt that by promoting the idea that they each lead in one of the two largest remaining states.

The Media is already Focusing on Pennsylvania. Obama Must Bring Focus to Mississippi and Wyoming before the 5 Week Break

Wyoming and Mississippi are the last contests before Pennsylvania. Common wisdom has Obama winning Wyoming although no polling data has been gathered. Wyoming has 12 delegates and therefore an Obama win or breaking even 6-6 in delegates only helps his math argument. Even if Hillary's momentum propels her to a win in Wyoming, her best case scenario is likely a 7-5 delegate split. Therefore, win, lose or draw Wyoming gives Obama one more chance to talk about an insurmountable lead.

Mississippi allows for Obama to accentuate his lead and his strength in red states. Obama can remind Democrats that if the Republicans win every red state they keep the White House. He has to argue that he can put the Republicans on the defensive and that Hillary cannot. A strong win in Mississippi also lets Obama lick wounds, reclaim momentum, and once again present his insurmountable pledged delegate lead. If that lead is insurmountable with 12 contests remaining, it is even more daunting with only 10 contests remaining.

Keep Pennsylvania Simple

Obama needs to make it clear that, while he is the national and delegate leader, he is the underdog in Pennsylvania and that Hillary needs to win BIG to make a dent. He needs to dominate among students and African American voters to keep Pennsylvania close. He needs to get into rural areas and force Hillary to work to maintain her edge among that demographic. He needs to paint Pennsylvania as part of a broader narrative where he leads in North Carolina, leads in the pledged delegate count and where he can threaten Republicans in red states. Doing those things will help Obama survive Pennsylvania, and that is all he really needs to do to keep closing in on the nomination.

What Obama needs to do in terms of quicker responses to Hillary's attacks and being less tight lipped is the topic for another column. The final 10 days prior to Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont saw Obama reduce media access and play it safe. Playing it safe will not be enough to win convincingly. That is another column though.