How Obama Can Answer the Small State Charge

Posted by ikabod Crane on 03.09.2008

Barack Obama won Wyoming today and is likely to win Mississippi on Tuesday. Yet, some of the media is already chalking it up as another caucus victory in a small state. Obama can reverse this narrative by appealing to history.

Hillary Clinton's argument for the nomination rests on the idea that she can win in the big states and in the battle ground states. That argument got a boost with her victories in Ohio and Texas. Wyoming does little to change the argument as this MSNBC article's title Obama wins again in caucuses – Wyoming suggests. Obama can change the debate by appealing to the U.S. Constitution and the 2000 election.

A History Lesson for Hillary: Connecticut Compromise

If I were Obama's speechwriter I would have him remind Hillary that they both serve in the United States Senate. He could say, "Hillary we serve in a body where every state regardless of size has two senators because our founders deemed that to be important. When you argue that only large states matter, you are disrespecting the wishes of our founders who believed that all states mattered. You are disrespecting many of our Senate colleagues who hail from smaller states. I would think a U.S. senator would know better. Unlike my opponent, I will fight for votes in every state and help Democrats in red states as well as blue states. I will fight for every vote because every vote counts."

Remind the Voters that Al Gore was 3 Electoral Votes Short in 2000

Battle ground states are not always big states. Al Gore earned 267 electoral votes in 2000 (although only 266 were cast for him) when 270 electoral votes elects a candidate president. Had Al Gore won any of the 3 or 4 electoral vote states, you know small states; Gore would have won the presidency in 2000. Once again if I was Obama's speech writer I would urge that he argue that he can win in small and medium sized states where Clinton cannot. Obama can and should argue that George W. Bush was competitive in Wisconsin and Minnesota. Bush won Missouri in 2000 and 2004 and also won Iowa in 2004. Obama won all four of those states in this nominating process. Obama needs to say he did these things. Obama needs to argue that he might be able to win a state in the Great Plains or Big Sky Country. Such a win would mean he could succeed where Gore had difficulty. Montana recently elected a Democratic Senator in Jon Tester. As chair of the Democratic National Committee, Howard Dean has pushed to get Democrats on the ballot in all fifty states. Dean has sought to identify quality candidates and rebuild the national character of the Democratic Party. 2006 was a big success for Dean and his plan. Obama's candidacy fits this model of Democrats fighting for victory everywhere. Obama needs to mention that simply winning great lake states, northern east coast states and west coast states will not get the nominee to 270 electoral votes. Obama has to argue he can win in places Hillary cannot. That wins the narrative war. So too does arguing that small and medium sized states have counted since the U.S. Constitution was adopted in 1789.

Mississippi and Wyoming are a Chance to Talk about Math

If Obama were a petty man, he could offer Senator Clinton a calculator so she could finish her tax returns more quickly and work on some delegate math. Obama is not a petty man, but even so he should use Wyoming and Mississippi as chances to talk about the delegate count. After today, only 11 contests remain and Obama leads by at least 142 pledged delegates. After Mississippi, only 10 contests will remain and his delegate lead is likely to be larger. Obama leads the popular vote by nearly 600,000 votes. Obama has won 28 contests to Hillary's 14. If one looks at this handy website provided by Slate it is easy to see that the delegate math cannot be flipped in Hillary's favor. Math is not enough to end Hillary's quest, but it can be a reminder to Democrats that he is winning. If he adds the math argument to his argument that small and medium sized states matter, Obama might be able to end Hillary's quest. A Tuesday win in Mississippi does nothing but help him make both arguments.