Can Democratic Fractures Heal by November?

Posted by Dan Martin on 03.21.2008

Has Hillary Clinton Permanently Wounded Barack Obama? Will the Nomination of Either Candidate Fracture the Base?

Promising Outlook?

The Iraq War is 5 years old. The surge has led to a reasonable decline in U.S. casualties and has given the war a bit of a popularity boost. Still, when voters consider that this once elective war offers no exit strategy and is costing $12 billion in tax payer dollars per month, Bush's war policy is not an advantage in November. John McCain has wrapped his candidacy in the Iraq War and has recently either made misstatements or downright mistakes that might draw his age and competency into question as November approaches. Such questions may be unfair as candidates make so many statements and speeches mistakes are bound to creep into rhetoric, but if Michelle Obama's senior thesis, Hillary Clinton's whereabouts during Bill's flings with Lewinsky, and Barack Obama's childhood essay on wanting to be president have been made issues so too will McCain linking Shia Iran to Sunni Al Qaeda.

A generic Democratic candidate could easily make the case that the $12 billion per month being spent to build infrastructure in Iraq could just as easily be spent stateside building bridges and roads in an attempt to help offset the loss of some blue collar jobs. If one adds in the idea that Afghanistan looks as though it is in need of a troop surge of its own and the economic pessimism of the U.S. public, this election should be as close to a sure thing for the Democrats as they have seen since FDR's days.

A Wounded Obama? Depends on Indiana and North Carolina

Some polls are indicating that on a national level Hillary Clinton is building a lead over Barack Obama among Democrats. Of course, Obama could argue that he has attracted independents and moderate Republicans that the Democrats will need to win in November so such polls may be undervaluing his support. Still, if Obama becomes the nominee after losing the Texas primary, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky … you get the picture - He looks much weaker than he did when he was rolling Hillary in February. In order to avert this fate of looking weak, Obama needs to win North Carolina and Indiana on May 6. The two states represent the 2nd and 3rd largest contests remaining. Wins there plus his delegate lead might force Hillary out of the race. At a minimum, winning those two states should push the official Democratic Party apparatus and Democratic Brahmans such as Al Gore and Bill Richardson behind Obama. The only problem is North Carolina is not clearly a state Obama will win with reputable polls showing Obama up by 7.5 points. Indiana is somewhat of a mystery. Demographically it looks like Ohio and that favors Clinton, but Chicago has a large sphere of influence in the Hoosier state. If Obama wins the greater Chicago area, Indianapolis, Bloomington and Muncie, he can win Indiana. Also, Obama has outperformed Clinton in dark red states such as Indiana. Therefore, it is possible he wins on May 6 and emerges having slain the Clintons rather than just surviving them.

Hillary's Path: Pennsylvania, Popular Votes and Doubts

Hillary Clinton cannot win the delegate race. This New York Times article details Hillary's struggles. Similarly, Slate's delegate calculator demonstrates that even if Hillary eviscerates Obama by 20 points in the states she is favored and ties in the states where she is considered to be the underdog she still trails by 87 delegates. That was with me throwing in a 70-30 win in Puerto Rico. You can play around with various scenarios, but none that reside in the Milky Way show Hillary making a major dent in Obama's delegate lead. This is especially true with Michigan and Florida's re-vote plans unraveling.

Therefore, as Adam Nagourney's article points out Hillary has to pursue a massive win in Pennsylvania, win the over all popular vote and hope to insert doubt about Obama in order to win the remaining superdelegates. The dangers of this approach are legion. Young people and first time voters brought into the process by Obama would likely be too jaded to show up in any large numbers in November. African American voters have been the most loyal members of FDR's New Deal Coalition and are the only reliable Democratic voters in many states. If the African American wing of the Democratic Party feels that pledged delegates were trumped by party officials who got cold feet about their preferred candidate, the number of Democratic senators, governors and representatives in the South will shrink by a massive number. Hillary cannot win the math, so she is banking on making Obama look weak and untrustworthy. Such an approach necessarily dampens turnout while threatening the loyalty of the most loyal Democratic voters. Hillary is pursuing a plan that could cause major rifts in the Democratic Party that will last long after 2008. Still, it is the only approach Hillary can realistically pursue.

If she pursues this program and does not sway the superdelegates, many voters in Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania may vote for McCain or stay home. If voters in those states believe their voices were suppressed and that Obama is a bad general election candidate, one cannot imagine him pulling the vast majority of Hillary's supporters to his cause. Barring a big day for Obama on May 6, the Democratic Party is faced with nominating a candidate, either Hillary or Obama, who will be perceived as weak and divisive by factions within the party.

Making History vs. a Sure Thing

Whether Clinton or Obama want identity politics to be a part of the 2008 election, race and gender are factors in this race. If the Democrats just cared about winning and could simply select their best general election candidate, former Virginia Governor Mark Warner would be the nominee. Warner has proven he can win in a red state, and he shares a quality that LBJ, Carter and Bill Clinton had: being a white male from south of the Mason-Dixon Line. Warner could then have been paired with New Mexico's Bill Richardson. This ticket would have placed geographical pressure on the GOP as Virginia has been trending Democratic and New Mexico went for Gore in 2000. Those two states alone would have added 18 electoral votes to the Democratic cause. Richardson would have given foreign policy and energy policy experience to Warner. Richardson also would have been the first Latino to be on a national ticket. That could have been argued to be historically significant while the Democrats played it safe and reclaimed the White House.

Instead, the Democrats are not playing it safe. Hillary Clinton has a great grasp of policy details and the legislative process. She also faces the hurdles of having massive baggage from the scandals of the 1990's. Throw in the fact she is asking the American people to elect their first female president while running on a strategy that will alienate African American and young voters. Nominating Hillary Clinton is no sure thing even if she has talent.

Barack Obama has similar issues, but unlike Clinton is not an attractive candidate due to mastery of policy details. Obama seems to have a great grasp of policy as well, but his appeal is his ability to see things in a big picture that allows for him to look to history and to the future all at the same moment. Obama seems to want to challenge the U.S. to be more than it is. He has the capability of building a new working majority by bringing new voters into the process and organizing these voters into effective coalitions. Such a new working majority might change the entrenched partisan dynamic that has reigned in Washington at least since Bob Dole filibustered Bill Clinton's economic stimulus plan in 1993. Obama will be dogged and tested by people who want to question his wife's patriotism and the out look of his former pastor. These tests did not dog Dick Cheney over his vote against sanctioning South Africa over apartheid, and this paranoia will not significantly cause Roman Catholics to run away from John McCain over his embracing of Reverend John Hagee. As a person of color, Barack Obama will face tough questions that might otherwise have been ignored. He is no sure thing either, but his potential outstrips that of Mark Warner.

The Democrats are going to try to make history rather than win a sure thing. On November 5, the Democratic Party will know if going for history by nominating either Obama or Clinton was worth it. Healing the fractures inflicted by this primary will go a long way toward victory in November, but it is no sure thing.