In The End, Superdelegates Will Vote Almost Unanimously For Obama
Posted by Ashish on 04.08.2008
Why the final delegate tally won't even be close...
For all the talk about the role of superdelegates in the Democratic race this year, ultimately, they won't play much of a factor beyond cementing Barack Obama's win beyond a shadow of a doubt. Currently Hillary Clinton leads among superdelegates, 251 to 222. But the key way to look at it is how have superdelegates gone since Clinton's "inevitable" status disappeared? Afterall, most of her 251 superdelegates jumped on board a very long time ago (prior to Iowa even) when they assumed she was going to win. Since February 5th, Obama has gained 69 superdelegates while Clinton has lost two.
And the reason even more superdelegates haven't jumped on the Obama bandwagon, as The Field mentioned, is because Clinton is expected to win Pennsylvania. A superdelegate endorsing Obama now risks having their endorsement seem worthless when Obama likely loses PA. So instead, most are probably waiting until after PA votes, so they can endorse Obama in the lead up to North Carolina, a state he will win big, and thus have their endorsements look that much better.
The majority of remaining undecided superdelegates will either endorse after PA and prior to NC or in June after the last vote is cast, and expect virtually all of these superdelegates to vote for Obama.
And in the end, Clinton won't even be left with the 251 superdelegates she has now. Many of those 251 are Clinton loyalists and won't switch to Obama publicly, but when the games are finally over and everyone knows that Obama will be the Democratic nominee and the Clinton era is officially over, a big chunk of those 251 will switch when the time to vote comes. Remember, those 251 superdelegates are politicians first, and politicians always put their own careers about whatever else. When the time comes to get on the good side of the man who will be the new leader of the Democratic party and could be the next President of the United States, most will get in line with everyone else.
Sure Clinton will hold on to 50-100 of her loyalists until the bitter end, but any fantasy that this thing will be a close finish is just that, a fantasy.
Posted By: Long Tall Texan (Guest) on April 08, 2008 at 01:43 AM
So no rioting or picketing at this year's convention, eh? Yea, this seems the logical conclusion, thanks for the persepective of a sensible finish to this unwieldy primary finish
Posted By: Mike (Guest) on April 08, 2008 at 03:00 AM
Refreshing to see someone actually report the big picture
Posted By: Elbram (Guest) on April 08, 2008 at 12:48 PM
Wow we have some people that need to do some fact checking on here. First off to cathy: look at the polls. Obama is ahead of McCain. A republican cannot win this election. McCain is too pro-war. As far as Hillary is concerned look at her train wresck of a campaign! If she cant run a campaign in the primary what the hell she going to do in the general when the repubs eat her up for being a liar!!!!And as far as the rev.Wright situation goes.......look at the polls. Obama has surged as of late. He has the biggest rcp average lead over CLinton right now and is beating McCain in the polls. Look at the money he is still raising. He raised more than Hitlary and McCain in March, and this was the month the Wright story came out! People are seeing past the smear campaigns of past. They want a change!!!!!
Posted By: Southern White Male. (Guest) on April 08, 2008 at 12:55 PM
Obama was criticized for remarks made by a Rev. Wright - guilt by association - not something he himself said or did - that's why the scandal didn't hurt him too much. Hillary has been caught in several lies recently - these actions are things she said, did, & is rightfully being held accountable for. She no longer has credibility - her goose is cooked. No pathological liars for president please.
Posted By: Momma (Guest) on April 08, 2008 at 01:13 PM
Great insight!!! I agree that the superdelegates will move in droves towards Obama. many of them have been waiting for the appropriate time to do so. Harold ickes is the little Dutch boy with his finger in the dam pleading with SD's not to endorse Obama until after June 3.
With Clinton experiencing a tailspin in the polls and new momentum in Pa showing up everyday, Obama stands to close the gap and pull in very close. if she continues to implode he may pull off a miracle.
The Obama campaign is a well organized movement. We support our candidate through direct actions and donations. This is a formidable force no traditional change averse politico can defeat.
Posted By: Ramon Morales (Guest) on April 08, 2008 at 01:28 PM
wow!!! we definitely have some dellusional hillary supporters on here. Take the wool from over your eyes Hillary is the one that can't be elect the repubs will eat her alive. Look at the way she's raised her campaign just in the primary. People say that you can observe how a candidate runs there campaign to get an idea of how they would run the office, and if thats true I dont wont hillary nowhere near the white house.
Posted By: Chocolate (Guest) on April 08, 2008 at 01:35 PM
Speaking of fantasies, you might want to check your own:
Obama’s Popular votes: 13,964,924 (47.43%)
Hillary’s Popular votes: 13,858,725 (47.07%)
Obama’s total delegates: 1,703.0 38.57%
Hillary’s total delegates: 1,692.0 38.32%
Hardly a landslide. Actually, the difference is still within the margin of error.
Posted By: Veronica in CA (Guest) on April 08, 2008 at 01:36 PM
Just look at the polls there is no way the SD will choose clinton over obahma when he leads her in the popular vote no way in hell I think they have learned their lesson in doing that
Posted By: rba (Registered) on April 08, 2008 at 01:59 PM
Just curious, When these "Polls" appear, where do they get their numbers from?
I have never been asked to take a poll (just like I have never taken part of the neilsen ratings, as far as I can tell) I'm not trying to be an ass, just trying to expand my knowledge so I can make an informed decision come election time.
Posted By: Dgnr8fox (Registered) on April 08, 2008 at 02:01 PM
I wish Clinton, her aides, surrogates and supporters would look at this race practically, and work for the good of the Democratic party, but that isn't going to happen anytime soon. I am impressed that many super delegates who aligned themselves early on with Hillary, are now publically stating they will switch if Obama leads in delegates and/or pledged votes, which he likely will. It's very disturbing, even to Clintonistas, that Hillary vows to crash her train into the convention. It's clear to many that she, the former president and the others egging her on, want to quash the Democrats chances of winning in November, for purely selfish reasons. The Clintons have taken a very bitter stance - if we can't have it, we will make sure you don't get it either! And that is some very toxic, poisonous gas!
Posted By: WANAKEE (Guest) on April 08, 2008 at 02:09 PM
I'm not sure where Veronica's getting her numbers, but just to clear things up: Obama is currently up in delegates (including supers) 1639-1503 (from realclearpolitics.com), a lead of 136. Without supers his lead is 164. There's no "margin of error" there, HRC needs to win *every* state from now on by more than 20%, and that's just not going to happen.
Posted By: Parker (Guest) on April 08, 2008 at 02:19 PM
I haven't seen a place that sums up the popular vote, but if Veronica's popular vote totals are as fictional as her delegate totals then Obama must be *way* ahead in the popular vote.
Posted By: Pat Shepard (Guest) on April 08, 2008 at 03:37 PM
Lynette said:
"Hillary’s candidacy is significant to me as a woman. She knows what it is to
be a woman, to be marginalized and sidelined. A woman in the White House is
CHANGE, REAL CHANGE and the most significant political event of my lifetime. I
am a registered democrat, but if Hillary is pushed out of the race, I will not
vote and I urge other women to do the same. Why should I be loyal to a party
where a group of men try to shame the first female candidate for the Presidency
out of the race?"
Wow, this is the most disturbingly sexist trash I have seen in a long time. Obama isn't going to use magical melatonin powers as president, so his race is irrelevant to his ability to do his job. Hillary isn't going to use magical vagina powers as president so her gender is irrelevant to her ability to do her job.
Anyone who chooses one or the other based on their gender or race is a sexist or racist, respectively. End of story.
Posted By: Pat Shepard (Guest) on April 08, 2008 at 03:45 PM
You feminist people are getting on my nerves. HIllary is mean and kaniving. She will do anything. It has nothing to do with her sex. I am a 24 yr. old woman with 2 children. I believe women can do anything. She has been a millionaire all her life. She has never been middle-class. How can she represent the middle-class? Obama has been the very bottom class, the middle-class, and worked his way to the upper-class while not letting go of his core values and beliefs. He has lived in foreign countries, which I believe is much greater foreign policy experience than any of the rest. He got a degree in international relations, went to a school in Indonesia, visited Pakistan and Kenya. He has all the experience and judgment he needs.
Posted By: Lydia (Guest) on April 08, 2008 at 05:12 PM
Veronica,
Nice job slipping in FL and MI. Does no one get it with these two states!
Posted By: Chris (Guest) on April 08, 2008 at 05:18 PM
Yikes, what feminist forum did someone link to this article from? Geez, it's a certifiable invasion in this article alone.
Seriously Ashish, where're these people coming from?
Posted By: Torad (Guest) on April 08, 2008 at 06:18 PM
Wow, didn't know this was the exclusive BO site, thought those of us who have read 411 when some of you were still in elementary school, were still allowed freedom of speech to voice an opinion. That is inherently the problem with the KoolAid drinkers, lack of history, facts and reality.
Ex: Lydia--Get your facts straight. Hillary comes from a working/middle class family WHILE Surfer-boy went to private prep school in Hawaii. She has worked her entire adult life helping women just like you, those are her core values and that is what OVERWHELMINGLY qualifies her to represent middle-class America. But, being that you get your MISINFORMATION only from the Obama blogs and website that is filled with gross misinformatiion, I can see why you are sadly mistaken. Her qualifications and experience more qualify to represent you as Prewsident, much more so than BO. Wow, BO went to school in Indonesia as a boy--is that supposed to give him foreign policy experience? That's laughable. By the way, you BO fanatics are also sorely lacking in any sort of historical perspective, that's why you are swayed so easily by BO propaganda. The ONLY person that opened the door for women like you to say, "I can do anything" was Hillary--NOT Obama. She took to the streets and fought every day of her life for women like you to say those words.
As an ADULT who has worked in this Party, it truly pains me to see the Dem. Party being hijacked by clueless, know-nothings like you who have never voted and will never vote Democrat again. Sad, really sad. Even more sad to be lectured by inexperienced, naive, misinformed political novice and rookies.
By the way... Veronica's stats are correct. But, apparently you Obamabots can ONLY get your facts from TV or the Internet, you don't even bother to get the facts. Do you know how? Tip: Go to the Democratic Party website and get the facts, or here's one... do your OWN research instead of believing everything that is spoon-fed to you from Obama and the propaganda machine news networks and his website. If you want to play like grownups, time to start acting like them.
Posted By: ginamc (Guest) on April 08, 2008 at 11:04 PM
"Veronica's stats are correct. But, apparently you Obamabots can
ONLY get your facts from TV or the Internet, you don't even bother to get the
facts. Do you know how? Tip: Go to the Democratic Party website and get the
facts."
Wow, more misinformation. The Democratic Party website doesn't list superdelegates because they are not pledged until the convention. So, like Veronica, you're just making (sh)it up as you go along.
Posted By: Guest#2946 (Guest) on April 09, 2008 at 12:18 AM
JACKPOT!!! And the absolute beauty of this analysis lies in the simple common sense of it all. But as we say, there are none so blind as those who will not see, and none so deaf as those who will not hear. Also, there are none so foolish as those who will not sacrifice vain political friendships and empty historical alliances in the interest of the greater good of their Party. Just why on earth has John Edward not come forth like the other Supers and done the right, decent, dignified and mature thing? The answer is as simple as the beauty of the analysis done by Ashish. Remember, there are none so blind as those who will not see. This matter of the Dems candidacy for November 2008 has left the stage where Edward or any decent American citizen, should be feeling any pity or sympathy for Hillary, based in petty and personal political friendships and/or alliances. Hillary Clinton finally and permanently disenfranchised herself and her candidacy to the White House, when she lied to us Americans "under sniper fire"..lol.. just as Bush lied to us about WMD in Iraq, and now has the blood of 4005 of our troops on his hands, and the broken bones and gouged out eyes of 100,000 Americans, whose futures are lost forever. John Edward must show himself to be a man, not just a Clinton family friend and politician, and stop pussyfooting if he is to regain any respect in our eyes. Again, congrats Ashish.
Posted By: The Baron (Guest) on April 09, 2008 at 07:58 PM
Without doubt, Senator Barak Obama's African genes bespeak him being a world leader of great significance. Unquestionably he hails from a long line of effective leaders. His character has been demonstrated in his using his advantages to their fullest, too. He refuses any compromise with Hillary Clinton and delays when stalemate is more favorable to his prospects. If Obama had just allowed Hillary her votes in Florida and Michigan like an ordinary American politician, he would be out of the race already. With those votes counted, Obama no longer leads the popular vote, but has lost it to Clinton almost ever since New Hampshire.
Obama has won the majority of delegates in three states where he lost the race: New Hampshire, Nevada, and Texas, attributable to his 'Africa Corps' of brownshirts mixing it up effectively, elbowing old people out of the way.
Barak Obama's Luo kin have led two African countries, Kenya and Uganda. His first cousin is currently the prime minister of Kenya at a cost of 1000 lives. Another kinsman led Uganda and committed crimes with Idi Amin, still another cousin now presides over the 'Lord's Resistance Army' that kidnaps children for prostitution and cannon fodder. Another two kinsmen have been political assassination victims.
So what happens if, God Forbid, a President Obama is assassinated?
On the other hand, Hillary will just give us 8 years of peace and prosperity. If she dies in office, there will be no barbarian hordes anxious to follow her into the grave that her opponent might inspire. Oh, we'd be very sad and we'd morn, but we wouldn't burn, baby, burn. I don't know about you, I don't know your circumstances in life or your family--at least not well, but if your children, your house, or your business, if any of them are flammable, I would play it safe and vote Hillary Clinton for President in 2008.
The truth is that she is winning. She will not make the blunder that Obama is counting on. She's the smartest person I've ever known, Barak is not. We need her to win. We should all vote for HIllary Clinton for President of the United States.
Posted By: B Nicholson (Guest) on April 15, 2008 at 04:19 PM
STAY CURRENT