Dean: Romney Would Be More Feared Than McCain
Posted by Ashish on 04.11.2008
Is Howard Dean right? Would Romney have been tougher to beat than McCain?
The Wall Street Journal has an article up which quotes DNC head Howard Dean as saying that Mitt Romney would have been tougher to beat in the general election than John McCain.
"Mitt Romney was the candidate I feared the most," Dean said.
With the Republican race now a distant memory, it's interesting to think about, and Dean may be correct on this point even though conventional wisdom has always been that McCain was the strongest Republican candidate for the general election.
So what would make Romney tougher to beat than McCain?
- Money. Romney showed that not only could he raise more money than McCain, he also proved willing to invest millions of his own fortune into his campaign. With Obama set to have a huge money advantage over McCain in the general, this is an area Romney would have been much tougher in.
- Image. Romney, for all his faults, is not tied to the Bush Administration in anyway and could have presented himself as an outsider, something that Obama more or less presents himself as. At a time when over 80% of Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction, being tied to Washington for as long as McCain has been is not a perk. Instead, the Democrats will have a fairly easy time establishing John McCain as a guy who has been in Washington for decades and thus is part of the problem, and will be able to tie him to George W. Bush since they agree on many key issues. Romney, at least at times, tried to present himself as a "change" candidate and we've seen that this is a "change" election. Of course, one could also argue that you aren't going to out-"change" Obama, so throwing a poorman's "change" candidate at him probably wouldn't be the best idea, but there is no doubt that McCain's baggage from decades in Washington and his ties to the "old way of doing things" and Bush will hurt him.
- Age. It won't be said publicly too much, but McCain's age is going to hurt him tremendously in November, especially against a candidate like Obama who is in his 40s and will make McCain appear as if he's from an era long gone just by standing on stage with him. Romney, on the other hand, isn't as young as Obama but isn't old either and also appeared sharp and fit, while McCain will appear old and worn down next to someone as young as Obama. Age will be a huge factor and even though Dean says in the WSJ article that Democrats won't push the age issue as an ethical decision, voters will be aware of it and will factor it in. On the flip side though, McCain's old age may make Obama appear even younger than he is and thus instill doubts in some people's minds about whether he is ready to be President. This being America though, a country obsessed with pretty, young people on TV, I tend to think that the advantage will go to the young and pretty over the old and uh, not so pretty, but we'll see.
These are just a few examples of how Romney may have been a stronger general election candidate than McCain. Of course, it's hard to really know because so many things happen in the course of a general election campaign. It's interesting to think about though.
Honestly, I'd fear Romney as a Presidential candidate as well but in a much different way. At least McCain is willing to work with Democrats.
Posted By: MC42 (Guest) on April 11, 2008 at 02:35 AM
I don't know about this theory. Romney had been portrayed as a flip flopper, and we all saw how that worked out for John Kerrey.
Also, I don't think Romney has the appeal to independents that McCain has, and with an unpopular Republican president in office for the last eight years, appeal to independents is probably even more vital than it normally is. If those independents, who have also been attracted to Obama, find that Obama isn't quite to their liking, it will be easier for them to vote for McCain, who may have been their second choice.
Frankly, the Reverend Wright scandal has pretty much already shown that, as Obama lost his significant lead in the national polls because of it, and the two candidates are already tied. People can talk all they want about Wright not affecting the polls, but that's really about the Democratic primary. The general election polls are a different story. It remains to be seen how it impacts the election in November.
The money point is legitimate, especially since Obama is apparently going to renege on his promise of taking the federal campaign money. I don't think the age thing necessarily works. I guess it depends. On one hand, you've got Bob Dole, the weakest Republican nominee of my lifetime (b. 1982). On the other, you've got Ronald Reagan, the strongest Republican nominee of my lifetime. Both of those guys were old. It didn't hurt Reagan (as evidenced by his brilliant turning the tables on Mondale when he said that he "would not make age an issue in this election by pointing out his opponent's youth and inexperience"--even Mondale was laughing at that). It probably did hurt Dole, though Ross Perot may have had more to do with that election than Dole's age. Now, McCain isn't as charming as Reagan was, but I don't think his age is going to hurt him nearly as much as Ashish says. He may very well lose in November, but I don't think it's going to be because of his age, unless something happens that makes it a big issue.
Finally, this wasn't mentioned in the article, but, right or wrong, I really think Romney's Mormon religion would have hurt him, and I say that as a Mormon myself. It hurt him in the Republican primaries, and even though most of the people that voted against him because of his religion (evangelical Christians) wouldn't vote Democrat, I just think that while the perception and national exposure of the LDS Church has significantly improved, I don't think it's come far enough for a Mormon president.
I think he's better positioned to run in four to eight years, especially if he runs as McCain's VP nominee, because he wouldn't be as much of an unknown, so I don't think his religion would affect him as much.
Posted By: J (Guest) on April 11, 2008 at 04:48 AM
Actually MC42, I think that Romney could've shown that he WOULD work with Democrats. People seem to forget that Massachusetts is the home of the old-fashioned Kennedy-style ivy league liberal. Romney was not only elected there, but dealt with a House and Senate that was around 90 percent Democrat.
Somehow he got his agenda across, was the first to present (and pass) universal health care for all in the state without insurance, and had a wink and nod in regards to gay marriage. I think that Obama would've had trouble with him, moreso than with McCain. Obama can out-youth, out-outsider, out-fund raise, out-religion, and out-"soccer mom" McCain, but with Romney, it wouldn't be so clear cut on any of those, PLUS Romney can say he's been able to have common ground with political adversaries AND has led in an Executive Position in running companies AND government.
Posted By: Krunchy (Guest) on April 11, 2008 at 08:15 AM
Why would you want someone to work with the Democrats? The Democrats want to raise taxes and increase the size of government. That does not work. Socialism is a failure. Let's be honest. Most polls show McCain in a tie, if not beating Obama and Clinton. Romney would only make it easier for Republicans to win.
Posted By: Michael (Guest) on April 11, 2008 at 10:01 AM
McCain=Military.
Romney=Economy.
Romney as VP would earn McCain my vote.
Posted By: Z-MAN (Guest) on April 11, 2008 at 12:52 PM
"Romney had been portrayed as a flip flopper, and
we all saw how that worked out for John Kerrey"
Romney has nothing on McCain when it vomes to "flip-flopping". First McCain criticizes the White House on Iraq then he supports them. First McCain says the religious right is bad for America, then he panders to them for votes.
What does McCain really believe? Who can tell?
Posted By: expert (Guest) on April 11, 2008 at 02:43 PM
He criticized the WH because he wanted more troops on the groud from the beginning. Now that there are, it makes sense that they'd be in agreement.
Posted By: chris (Guest) on April 11, 2008 at 02:56 PM