2008 General Election Preview: First Look At McCain/Obama Electoral Battle

Posted by Ashish on 04.17.2008

Analysis and thoughts on how the 2008 election looks seven months out...including TONS OF MAPS!

Ok, I know I said I would ignore general election polling and such right now, but I've changed my mind. Why? Because let's face it, the Democratic primary probably won't end for another two months even though the outcome is basically known. And while Clinton is keeping things somewhat interesting with her daily assortment of attacks on Obama, you can only convince yourself that there is a more than 5% chance she ends up with the nomination for only so long. So in the interest of keeping this interesting, I figured I'd take a VERY early look at the 2008 general election with the assumption that it'll be Obama vs. McCain. IF something happens that changes the race to where I think Clinton has a better than 5% chance of becoming the nominee, I'll do one with her vs. McCain. I'll continue to discuss the primary battle in detail as usual, but got in the mood to work up a mock electoral map and get that process started as well.

Also, note that I am using a combination of available polling data from Rasmussen (their state-by-state general election polls are here and their balance of power listing is here) and SurveyUSA (their electoral college predictions, based on their polls, is available here), state demographics, how states voted in 2004, and some thoughtful speculation when deciding how states will go. Now, as I've said before, current general election polling isn't really accurate because the Democratic nomination is ongoing while the Republican one isn't, so polling data will favor McCain. Therefore, I will take into account that Obama will get the standard "post-primary" bounce of 5-8 points once he officially wins the nomination (McCain already got his 5-8 point bounce once he wrapped up the nomination).

I'm going to break down states into four categories: sure states that are heavily expected to go one way or another, likely states that will probably go one way or another, leaner states that lean slightly one way but will be battlegrounds and could switch, and swing states that could go either way.


2004 REFRESHER

Now, the first thing we need to do is remind ourselves of what happened in 2004. Here is the electoral map of the election in which George W. Bush defeated John Kerry, 286 electoral votes to 251.



Now, the main things to take away from this map:

- John Kerry lost Florida AND Ohio, two of the three largest swing states (the other being Pennsylvania), and still finished only 21 electoral votes short of the nomination.
- Bush won both Iowa and New Mexico by less than 1% of the vote.
- Kerry won Wisconsin by less than 1% of the vote.
- Bush won Ohio and Nevada by less than 3% of the vote.
- Kerry won New Hampshire and Pennsylvania by less than 3% of the vote.
- Kerry won Minnesota and Michigan by less than 4% of the vote.
- Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania were given by far more attention by Bush and Kerry than any of the other states.

John Kerry is now generally viewed as a "weak" candidate who came close to winning more because of backlash against Bush and the Republicans than do to his strengths as a candidate. Factoring that in, along with the assumption that whatever backlash to the Republican party existed in 2004 probably still exists in similar levels in 2008, we can assume that, other than the states Kerry won by less than 4% of the vote (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and New Hampshire), it will be difficult for Democrats to lose the other states Kerry won since he won them by more than 4%. That being said, there is some polling data that shows McCain running well in traditionally Democratic states, so I will factor that in.


2008 SURE BETS

Now, the first thing we should do on our map is to color in states that seem pretty likely to go to one of the candidates, and that are unlikely to see any attention or campaigning during the election.

Let's start with states that John McCain should win easily against Barack Obama. These are states that not only voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004 by comfortable margins, but polling data also shows McCain leading in them comfortably.

* Arizona (10)
* Alabama (9)
* Utah (5)
* Kansas (6)
* Kentucky (8)
* Arkansas (6)
* Oklahoma (7)
* Tennessee (11)
* Georgia (15)
* Idaho (4)
* West Virginia (5)
* Wyoming (3)
* Louisiana (9)
* Mississippi (6)

That's a total of 104 electoral votes and results in a map that looks like this...



Now let's look at the states Barack Obama should win easily against John McCain. These are states that not only voted for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004 by comfortable margins, but polling data also shows Obama leading in them comfortably.

* Illinois (21)
* New York (31)
* California (55)
* Hawaii (4)
* Vermont (3)
* Washington (11)
* Maine (4)
* Rhode Island (4)
* Connecticut (7)
* Maryland (10)
* District of Columbia (3)

That's a total of 153 electoral votes and results in a map that looks like this...



We put them together and we get a pretty likely map that looks like this...



So that's our starting point, Obama - 153, McCain - 104. It takes 272 to win. We can feel pretty good that the states colored in above will go as expected.


2008 LIKELY STATES

Many states that used to be a lock to go one way or another have since trended a bit closer to the center. They still favor one side or the other, and should go one way or another, but are areas where some campaigning may go on and money may be spent. I'm calling these likely states.

Let's look first at the states that are likely Republican...

TEXAS (34) -- Texas voted strongly for Bush in 2000 and 2004, partly because Texas leans Republican and partly because Bush was the Governor of Texas and the state served as a homestate for him. Some forget, but Bill Clinton did not lose Texas by much in 1992 or 1996 (granted part of that was due to Ross Perot, but still). Polling has the state very competitive between Obama and McCain, as SurveyUSA's latest has McCain leading Obama 47% to 46%, while a local Belo poll in Texas in early March had McCain winning 49% to 42%. When you factor in the bounce Obama will get once he eventually wins the nomination, the state looks pretty competitive. I'd be surprised to see him win Texas, but the fact that it is close means he can force McCain into spending time and money here, which is a victory in and of itself for Obama, especially in a race where he will have a huge financial advantage. Every dollar Obama can force McCain to spend in Texas, and I do expect Obama to campaign in Texas just to force McCain to do the same, is one less dollar McCain can spend in key swing states. Obama does not need Texas. McCain absolutely does. We'll go ahead and add it to McCain's total.

SOUTH DAKOTA (3) -- Obama looks a bit more competitive in South Dakota than Gore and Kerry ever looked, but the state should still be somewhat safe for McCain. SurveyUSA had McCain up 47% to 43% in the state in their last poll while Rasmussen had McCain up 48% to 38% in their last poll. I doubt Obama spends much time or money trying to win this state as it would be an uphill battle and only has three electoral votes. So let's go ahead and add this one to McCain's total.

MISSOURI (11) -- Bush won Missouri in 2000 and 2004, and both SurveyUSA and Rasmussen have McCain up by double digits in the state over Obama. Even when you factor in whatever bounce Obama gets from winning the nomination, and the fact that Obama's homestate is a neighbor of Missouri, the state still seems like a tough one for Obama. I wouldn't be surprised to see him spend some time and money here though, especially if his internals show a somewhat close race, but I think McCain should feel pretty good about winning this state.

NEBRASKA (5) -- We don't have any polling data out of Nebraska but it is a traditional red state and with only five delegates, I doubt Obama tries to contest it, so I'm giving it to McCain.

SOUTH CAROLINA (8) -- You may be wondering why I didn't put South Carolina as a sure state for McCain. Simple. South Carolina's population is 30% black. That, coupled with the fact that Obama spent a lot of time and money setting up a ground game in the state for the primary, means he will at least be somewhat competitive. It'll be virtually impossible for him to win South Carolina, since he'd have to get roughly 80% of the black vote (which he can do) and nearly 40% of the white vote (which he probably can't). I did put Georgia as a sure McCain state even though it too has a population that is 30% black, but that is because GA wasn't a battleground state in the primaries and so Obama probably doesn't have much set up there, and I doubt he plans to spend any effort fighting GA in the fall. He may at least make a few appearances in SC.

So we can now add another 61 electoral votes to McCain's column which gives him 165 and our updated map looks like this...



And now lets look at states that are likely to go to Obama. Again, he should win these states, but McCain can probably make it close enough in some of these areas to force Obama to spend time and money.

OREGON (7) -- I suspect when all is said and done, Oregon won't end up being that close, but right now, polling data shows McCain within 8 or 9 points of Obama. As voting day gets closer, Obama's lead will likely expand in the state. I doubt McCain will spend any time in the state and the only reason I didn't list it as a sure state for Obama is because both Rasmussen and SurveyUSA show McCain within single digits, but that'll almost surely chance once the Democratic nomination is secured.

MASSACHUSETTS (12) -- Again, this is a traditional Democratic state where Obama shouldn't have much trouble. Rasmussen has him up 49% to 42%. The only reason I list it as likely and not sure for Obama is because SurveyUSA shows a 47%-47% tie in the state in one of their polls (though they have another one that has Obama up 49% to 42%), although I suspect that has more to do with Clinton being strong in the state and her supporters still boycotting Obama in national polls. When Election Day comes, that'll change.

DELEWARE (3) -- Another traditional Democratic state that Obama should have no problems in and that McCain won't contest.

These three states combine for 22 electoral votes, bringing Obama's total to 175 with McCain at 165, and our updated map looks like this...



So far, nothing has changed from 2000 and 2004. I have all of Obama's states being states Gore and Kerry won in 2000 and 2004, and all of McCain's states being states Bush won in 2000 and 2004.


2008 LEAN STATES

Now we get to the interesting states. The remaining 18 states are at least somewhat close and will probably see some action in the fall. Some of these 18 do lean in specific ways though, so let's look at those first.

Let's start with states that lean to McCain...

MONTANA (3) -- Polling has Montana unusually close considering it voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004. Rasmussen, for example, has McCain up 48% to 43%, and we can still assume Obama will get a bounce in the state once he secures the nomination. The big question is whether Obama will bother contesting the state when it has only three electoral votes. We've seen him pay attention to small states in the primaries, so he may use the same strategy in the general election. One of the advantages of the primary between Obama and Clinton continuing is that it will force Obama to set up his ground game in the state very early, while McCain probably won't spend any money or time in the state. Obama will already have volunteers and an infastructure in place, even if he never goes back after the June 3rd primary. That alone should keep the state close, but I'm still giving it to McCain.

FLORIDA (27) -- I'm not classifying Florida as a swing state this year, as I think all data shows the state leaning red. That, coupled with the fact that Florida is one of the states Obama wasn't allowed to campaign in and thus has nothing set up there, should give McCain an advantage going in. Bush won Florida in 2000 (sort of) and 2004 and the demographics of the state would seem to favor McCain. It'll be interesting to see how much time and effort Obama puts into Florida. It'll definitely be one of the top battleground states since it has 27 electoral votes, but McCain does start off with an advantage here. Things could change once Obama secures the nomination and begins introducing himself to Florida voters with campaign stops and ads.

INDIANA (11) -- Indiana voted in 2000 and 2004 for Bush, and polling data has McCain with healthy leads over Obama in the state. Plus, Obama has struggled a bit with low income/blue collar workers, and so that will hurt him in places in Indiana. Of course, he'll benefit from the ground game he will have ready due to the May 6th Democratic primary, something McCain will be late on. The state should be close, but for now, I'm giving it to McCain.

ALASKA (3) -- Believe it or not, Alaska will be in play this year. The state has been trending blue and Obama has shown a lot of strength in the state. He also has offices and other infastructure already set up there, something I doubt McCain even bothers to do. With only three electoral votes, and the cost involved in going there, I'm not sure how much time either candidate will spend there, but the state will be close. I'm giving it to McCain for now, but things could change here.

NORTH DAKOTA (3) -- This is another red state that voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004 by big margins, but has been trending blue with Democrats showing some strength in the 2006 races. The only known poll, SurveyUSA's poll, already has Obama leading in the state. He has a ground game and volunteers in place from the caucus that took place on February 5th and even though the state only has three electoral votes, I think Obama is going to spend some time here. That being said, Bush got nearly 63% of the vote in 2004, meaning it would take a massive swing for Obama to win here, and I don't see that happening.

That's another 47 electoral votes we can tack on to McCain's total, giving him 212 electoral votes and an updated map that looks like this...



Again, so far, all of the states I've given to McCain voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004, so no surprises yet.

Now let's look at the states that lean towards Obama...

NEW JERSEY (15) -- New Jersey voted for Gore and Kerry in 2000 and 2004 and even though it has been trending to the right a bit, I still think Obama holds on here. The state will be a bit of a battleground as McCain will definitely contest it and hope for an upset. I think polling data showing McCain with slight leads in NJ is a bit off since the state is strong Clinton territory and once she is out of the picture, Obama will get a larger than normal bounce in the state as the party unites.

IOWA (7) -- And here we have our first change from 2004. I have Iowa going to Obama. The state voted for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, Gore in 2000, but for Bush in 2004 (but Bush won by less than 1%). Obama has an unbelievable ground game set up in the state from the massive Iowa caucus battle he had with Clinton and John Edwards, and was able to turn out record numbers of voters on caucus day. All polls also show him leading McCain comfortably here. I'd expect him to make Iowa one of his top priorities in the fall and I anticipate he'll get it.

WISCONSIN (10) -- The state voted Democrat in 2000 and 2004 and has been moving more to the left since 2004. Obama showed tremendous strength here in the primary in February and the state shares a border with Illinois and specifically Chicago, the homebase of Obama's campaign. I'd expect him to win this state comfortably. SurveyUSA has him up 51% to 40%. The only reason I have it as a leaning state is because Kerry barely won here in 2004 and Rasmussen has the state close. Factoring in Obama's post-primary bounce, he shouldn't have to campaign here much.

NEW HAMPSHIRE (4) -- New Hamsphire voted for Bush in 2000 but for Kerry in 2004. The state has moved strongly to the left since 2004 as Democrats did really well in the 2006 midterm elections with both Congressional seats going to Democrats, the Democratic Governor being re-elected in a landslide, Democrats taking both houses of the State Legislature for the first time since 1911, and Democrats gaining a majority on the Executive Council. The state will be close but I'm giving it to Obama, largely based on how well Democrats did in the state in the 2006 elections.

MICHIGAN (17) -- The race appears to be much closer in Michigan than it really is. Both SurveyUSA and Rasmussen have Obama up very slightly over McCain right now. But keep in mind, Obama has never campaigned in the state yet because he wasn't allowed to do so during the primaries. Once he secures the nomination and spends time in the state, he shouldn't have too hard a time as the state already leans left with Gore and Kerry winning it, and Democrats winning nine out of the last ten Senate races in the state. Plus the demographics are favorable to Obama, and McCain struggled in the state during the primary.

That's another 53 electoral votes for Obama, giving him 228 to McCain's 212. Our map now looks like this...



So far, the only change I have down from 2004 is Obama winning Iowa, a state Gore won in 2000 but that Kerry did not.


2008 SWING STATES

The election will likely be decided by the remaining eight states: New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina. These states could go either way and how they ultimately go will depend a lot on what happens in the next few months.

First, the swing states I have going to McCain...

OHIO (20) -- Obviously Ohio will probably end up getting more attention from Obama and McCain than any other state (except maybe Pennsylvania). Bush won Ohio in 2000 and 2004. Obama has had a hard time connecting with blue collar/low income voters, and I think that will ultimately cost him here. I expect a VERY close race here with the winner winning by 2% or less, meaning it could really go either way. Polling is all over the map, with Rasmussen showing McCain leading by 7% and SurveyUSA showing Obama leading by 10%. For now, I'm giving it to McCain.

VIRGINIA (13) -- Virginia has been a traditional Republican state but has gone purple lately, evident by Democrat Jim Webb winning his Senate race in 2006. Webb is currently supporting Clinton but will end up being one of Obama's top surrogates in the state come election time and is someone who is in the hunt for the VP spot. If he is picked to be VP, his main task would be to win Virginia. For now, I don't think Webb will be the VP and I'm going to give the state to McCain, largely because Bush didn't have any real trouble in the state in 2004. Polling has Obama up, and Democrats have been doing very well in the state since 2004, but we'll leave it with McCain for now.

NORTH CAROLINA (15) -- This would probably be the most shocking upset of the entire election if Obama pulls it off, but I don't think he will. A Republican has won the state in every election since 1968 except when native son Jimmy Carter won the state in 1976. Rasmussen has a new poll showing the state as a tie. With 22% of the state's population black, and the state not being bogged down in as much racial tension as other Southern states, Obama is in better position to do well enough among whites to keep the state very close and force McCain to spend time and money here, a place Republicans can usually count on.

So that's 48 more electoral votes for McCain, giving him 260.

And now the swing states I have going to Obama...

NEW MEXICO (5) -- Gore won New Mexico in 2000 but Kerry lost it in 2004. Polling already shows Obama up slightly, a lead that will increase once he secures the nomination, and he also has New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson as one of his top surrogates. Richardson is also another potential VP pick and could deliver the state to Obama in the fall. But even without Richardson as VP, I think Obama holds on here. Bush won in 2004 by less than 1% of the vote, and I think a lot of that had to do with Kerry's weaknesses as a candidate. Registration in the state has surged towards Democrats since 2004 as well, with over 50% of the state registered as Democrats and 33% as Republicans.

NEVADA (5) -- Obama did exceptionally well in rural Nevada during the caucus in January and is leading slightly in both Rasmussen and SurveyUSA's polls of the state. Factoring in his post-primary bounce, he will be ahead comfortably in the state. This is another state where Bill Richardson will be a big help, especially if he ends up as Obama's VP.

COLORADO (9) -- Bush won Colorado easily in 2000 but narrowly in 2004, and likely would have lost the state in 2000 if Ralph Nader wasn't on the ballot (Bush won by 4% and Nader got 5% of the vote). Bill Clinton won the state in 1992. SurveyUSA shows Obama up by 9% while Rasmussen has both tied at 46%. I expect this state to be one of Obama's top priorities. He will probably spend a lot of time and money here, and the state's independent history should favor him.

MINNESOTA (10) -- Gore and Kerry both won Minnesota and the state has a real independent streak that will help Obama a lot. This is the state that elected former pro-wrestler Jesse Ventura to the Governorship in 1998. Kerry won the state by over 3% in 2004 and all signs indicate that the state has gone more to the left in 2006. Both SurveyUSA and Rasmussen have Obama leading McCain in the state.

PENNSYLVANIA (21) -- Once again, Obama will start off with a big advantage in the state because he will have volunteers and a ground game ready to go from the primary. Gore and Kerry both won PA, though Kerry won by less than 3% of the vote. PA, along with OH, will get the vast majority of attention from Obama and McCain. Obama will have Governor Ed Rendell campaigning for him by the time the election comes around, and he's another potential VP pick that could help secure a key swing state.

So that's another 50 for Obama, giving him 278 electoral votes to McCain's 260, enough to win the Presidency. Our final map looks like this...



The states I have changing from 2004 are Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico all going to Obama. Gore won Iowa and New Mexico in 2000, so compared to that, Obama is adding two states.

Basically, the key for Obama will come down to PA, OH, and NC. If he wins ONE of those states, he will be very tough to beat, and if he wins TWO of those states, it'll be a fairly lopsided win for him (well, at least compared to 2000 and 2004). I think he is in strong position to flip IA, NM, CO, and NV and could also possibly flip VA and ND. Obama is an interesting candidate as he puts MANY red states in play and doing that, even if he doesn't win many of them, will force McCain to spend money in those states, giving Obama an even bigger financial advantages in the traditional swing states. Obama will have a huge financial advantage, a huge volunteer advantage, and a huge ground game advantage. Forcing McCain to spread his limited resources to states like ND, VA, SD, CO, etc. that Bush never had to worry much about will have major impacts on OH, PA, NC, NV, etc.

Who Obama and McCain pick as their VPs will also be important, as I suspect both will pick high profile people from a key swing state.

I also think this early preview favors McCain and makes him appear much stronger than he likely will be. The reason is because a lot of states that are trending strongly to the left based on the 2006 elections are still murky because of the ongoing Obama/Clinton race. We won't get a clear picture of how things look until a few weeks after Obama secures the nomination. Chuck Todd of NBC, one of the few mainstream political analysts who knows what he's talking about, said that Obama could get as much as a 15 point bounce in all polls once Clinton is out and the party unites behind him. If that is true, Obama would end up winning states like VA and OH that I currently have going to McCain, and if he wins those two, he would finish with over 300 electoral votes and a relatively easy win.

I'll do another one of these, updated to reflect the latest polling data and any other relevant changes, next month.