New IN & NC Polls: Obama, Clinton Holding Steady
Posted by Ashish on 04.28.2008
The latest numbers from the next two states...
We have some new polls out today...
- ARG has Barack Obama still up big in NC, 52% to 42% for Hillary Clinton. Last week they had Obama up 11%, so their numbers are basically unchanged.
- PPP does show a bounce for Hillary Clinton following PA, but it's worth noting that they are the only pollster that had a 20%+ lead for Obama before. They now have Obama leading Clinton 51% to 39%, which is more in line with what other pollsters have shown in the state, though they did have Obama leading by 25% last week. Whether that poll was an outlier and this new poll is correcting that or if there is a legitimate bounce for Clinton following her win in PA is somewhat hard to determine right now. We should have a better idea once we get a few more new polls of NC in.
- In Indiana, SurveyUSA has her winning 52% to 43% over Barack Obama. SurveyUSA's last poll (two weeks ago) had her leading by 16%, so the poll actually shows movement towards Obama. Pollsters are once again conflicted here, as SurveyUSA & ARG show Clinton leads while Research2000, Selzer, LA Times, and Downs Center all show Obama leads. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, meaning the state is still a total toss up.
It's hard to make much of these numbers. PPP shows significant movement towards Clinton in NC, but SurveyUSA shows significant movement to Obama in IN, so there doesn't appear to be any noteworthy Clinton bounce following PA. Clinton has two options to survive on May 6th. She either wins IN and loses NC by single digits, or she wins IN by double digits which would allow her to lose by double digits in NC. If she loses both states, it's over regardless of whether she quits or not.
And, as I've been saying, the most important thing now will be who superdelegates endorse, and right now, they keep endorsing Obama. He has picked up three more and continues to gain in that department. Clinton will need roughly 76% of the remaining undecided superdelegates to pick her if she wants to win. Since Clinton's win in PA, Obama has gained six superdelegates, Clinton has gained two.
After today's statements from Rev. Wright, the super delegates should start thinking very hard as to who they are going to support.
Posted By: GoldenChica (Guest) on April 28, 2008 at 05:17 PM
Is Rev. Wright running for President?
Posted By: Golden Boy (Guest) on April 28, 2008 at 05:58 PM
I don't see anything Rev. Wright has said in the last couple of days that would have any effect on what the superdelegates do. He has been giving context and for those with an open mind that matters. Those with a closed mind would probably have vote for McCain anyway. Any excuse would do. If he can't close the gap in Indiana then May 6th won't change anything it will go on till the end. Let's hope he can close the gap and there will be no more extra innings. All PA did was give Indiana voters a lot more face time with the next President of the United States.
Posted By: Craig in TX (Guest) on April 28, 2008 at 06:29 PM
Why would anyone base their vote on what Rev. Wright said or did? It makes me uneasy to think these people actually vote! You base your vote on the moral character of the person running. If you were basing your vote on Bill Clinton, surely you wouldn't vote for Hillary right? He was such an outstanding example of character with Jennifer Flowers and Monica Lewinsky.
Posted By: Cindy from TX (Guest) on April 28, 2008 at 07:12 PM
After watching the PBS special on Reverend Wright, I have a completely different, enlightened opinion. This man is really is a patriot, but without the blinders that other patriots wear, and he's incredibly intelligent.
It's worth watching. After having only listened to sound bytes, the PBS special helped me understand his love for the country and his dismay and even hatred for what it does. There's no contradiction.
Posted By: Marie in Tampa (Guest) on April 28, 2008 at 09:00 PM
I agree with a few of the comments below. The one thing that seems to be consistent about those that bring up Reverend Wright is that almost all have never listened to the entire sermon. The sermon doesn't offend me at all; though I am offended by people that criticize a person who has fought for his country, and witnessed the prejudices of this country for pointing out that the US is less then perfect. This issue is the excuse these bigots need to clear their conscious for not voting for the far superior candidate.
Posted By: RochNY (Guest) on April 28, 2008 at 11:52 PM
I think I am not going to vote for Reverend Wright...
I am going to vote for Barack Obama.
Posted By: Prantha (Guest) on April 29, 2008 at 04:30 AM
I don't think voting for the student of the loon is a good idea.
You don't sit in a church for 20 years with someone like that. Write a book named after a semron by the same.etc,etc...and have it mean nothing to the formation of the man who embraced it.
Obama's poltics where already way off to the left now they are being exposed as having their roots in extremism.
Posted By: Brian (Guest) on April 29, 2008 at 05:51 AM
I heard that Obama´s parat don´t like american climate. Perhaps that could affect Obama´s nomination too.
Posted By: Davor (Guest) on April 29, 2008 at 05:52 AM
thats why young people should not be allowed to vote. voting for obama because its the "cool" thing to do....and im a young person.
Posted By: manly man (Guest) on April 29, 2008 at 07:03 AM
When a candidate admits he has little experience and says we should vote for him based upon his judgment, then his judgment for the past 20 years does matter. Obama has paid lots of money to help Wright spread the WRONG message in South Chicago for 20 years. Violence has grown in South Chicago from the seeds of hate, which Wright and Farrakhan have continually sown. Hate speech always breeds violence. Wright even said that he hates God for having made him Black! James Brown had the better message.
Posted By: Greg Tippitt (Guest) on April 29, 2008 at 10:04 AM
Survey USA is also the outfit that had Clinton leading Obama by 18 just before the Pa. primary. I think there is no doubt some Clinton movement in NC, which will be enhanced by her endorsement from the popular governor. Indiana, as you point out, is a toss-up.
Posted By: Careful With Polling (Guest) on April 29, 2008 at 10:34 AM
Marie in Tampa
you are not a enlightened person. Bill Moyers is in the tank for the left wing loons
He did not ask the so called reverend onE tuff question. tt was a kiss fest.
The guy did not ask why he thinks the Govt is injecting AIDS
in the black community. How can you have guy claim to be a journalist and not ask that
question This was a puff piece to help Obama. Look at the what Wright said in last 2 days.
The guy is a racist, hate monger, bomb throwing fool. How could Obama sit there for 20yrs
and listen to that crap. Stop quoting the media and saying it was taken out of context.
. I watched the DVD sermon in its entirety it is worse then just the few minutes shown on TV.
Obama said he can not disown this guy in speech in Philly. If he does it now, he is just another politician doing the politically expedient thing.
Posted By: Daniel44 (Guest) on April 29, 2008 at 03:48 PM
Rev Wright is entitled to his opinion, may be a bit outlandish to some but he is extremely learned, intelligent, righteous man who speaks his mind. its refreshing he's not looking to be popular he speaks what he is passionate about...and i don't think anyone could argue much of what he says has a lot more true than many of the politicians out there...talk to cover there ass...or say whatever is convenient to get the pop.vote
Posted By: Sean (Guest) on April 30, 2008 at 05:37 AM
STAY CURRENT