Obama vs. Clinton: Preview of North Carolina & Indiana Primaries

Posted by Ashish on 05.05.2008

The next stage in the ongoing battle is upon us. A look at what both candidates need, and predictions for what they will get...

The next stage in the battle for the Democratic nomination between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton is here, as North Carolina and Indiana hit the polls on Tuesday and could very well give Obama what he needs to effectively end the race, or give Clinton what she needs to continue to fight on. It's an important day, because it's definitely the last day in which Obama will have a chance to force Clinton out before the end of the primaries on June 3rd, but it is also the last big opportunity Clinton will have to keep Obama from getting to 2,025 delegates (and the nomination) before her. After Tuesday, the biggest contest left is Puerto Rico, and only a total of 217 pledged delegates will remain, not even close to enough to change anything that isn't already changed by NC and IN which combine for 187 pledged delegates (115 for NC, 72 for IN).

Right now, Barack Obama is sitting on 1745 delegates while Clinton is at 1606 delegates, according to most independent counts. That means that Obama is 280 delegates away from the nomination while Clinton is 419 delegates away.


NORTH CAROLINA
A few weeks ago, Obama was expected to win NC in a landslide, but expectations have now changed. Clinton benefited heavily from changing expectations in TX, OH, and PA, states that she was originally expected to win by 20+ points. But since Obama had surges in all three states and closed the gap, expectations changed and much smaller Clinton wins ended up being viewed positively. Now it's the Obama camp that looks to benefit from media expectations, as Clinton made a surge in the state over the past week to make NC a real contest, and now the media isn't wondering if Obama will blow her out, they are wondering if she can maybe pull off an upset here.

Demographically, this is a state that favors Obama. Some 337,000 people in NC have voted early, and 39% of those people are African American. That is a very positive number for Obama. If, say, 35% of the total vote ends up being African American, and Obama wins them by 87% (slightly less than what he has been winning African Americans by lately), he would need just 31% of the remaining voters to get over 50% of the vote in the state. If he gets just 35% of all non-African American voters and 87% of African Americans, and we assume African Americans will make up 35% of the total vote, he would finish with 53.2% of the vote. In Pennsylvania, Obama got 37% of the white vote and 90% of the black vote. If he got those numbers in NC, he'd finish with nearly 56% of the vote. The point is, the demographics really favor Obama. If African American turnout is 35% or more, the only way he can lose the state is if he completely collapses among whites. We'll really be able to see what kind of impact all the Rev. Wright controversy had by the percentage of white voters Obama gets.

That being said, NC also has a lot of educated, high income whites in areas like Durham and Raleigh as well as some big college campuses, and educated, high income voters and young college voters have mostly supported Obama thus far. Most pollsters also show that Obama has a pretty solid lead among voters who have voted early. This means that weather could play a big factor, as bad weather could hurt Clinton since she will have to win day-of voting by a fairly significant margin to win overall. Her ground game will also be key.

Clinton cannot afford to lose this state by more than eight points. Just like Obama got the raw end of things due to changing expectations in earlier states, she will get the raw end here if she doesn't make this at least somewhat close. If she loses by eight or more, the media will use the win to show that despite all the Rev. Wright controversy, Obama was still able to win a major state by a significant margin. If he wins by double digits, it could be enough to end the race even if he loses Indiana. Many reports are going around that Obama has the majority of undecided superdelegates on his side already, but that they are either waiting for him to win North Carolina and see how Clinton responds before announcing, or they are waiting for the primaries to end on June 3rd. A big Obama win here, and by big I mean eight or more, would probably result in many undecided superdelegates announcing for Obama in the following week regardless of what happens in Indiana. Keep in mind that Obama got roughly 20 new superdelegates in the week following his LOSS in PA, so a big win in NC should further accelerate superdelegates to his side.

NC is sandwiched between Virginia to the North and South Carolina to the South, and Obama won those states huge (Virginia by 28 points, South Carolina by 29 points). He also outperformed polls in both of those states by 8-10 points on average. He won't do that well here for a few reasons, the main one being that Clinton has actually paid attention to NC (she largely ignored Virginia and Bill Clinton made a fool of himself in South Carolina) and the other being that the Western-most portion of NC is more or less an extension of Tennessee, a state Clinton won huge. She will do well in the areas near the TN border. Plus Obama has been saddled with mostly negative news for weeks now, and all of that will have an effect.

I'm projecting that 35% of the vote will be African American, and that Obama will win that group by 86%, and that he will get 38% of the remaining voters. That gives him 55% of the vote to 45% for Clinton, a win that should put a ton of pressure on Clinton to exit the race for the good of the party. I'm also projecting that Obama gets 63 pledged delegates from the state, leaving 52 for Clinton. A win like this in NC will basically start the process of wrapping up this race.


INDIANA
Indiana is a bit harder to predict, though virtually all pollsters show Clinton leading the state, most by five points or more. The latest SurveyUSA poll actually has her up by 12! Indiana is strange because the Northern half of the state is so different from the Southern half. Obama should win the Northern half of the state, especially the Northwest which is heavily influenced by the Chicago media market. Obama should also do very well in Indianapolis. But the rest of the state is more similar to Kentucky and Ohio than to Illinois, and its in those areas that Clinton could run up big margins. If Obama can win the Northwest by a big margin, he could win the entire state. If he barely wins the Northwest, the state should go fairly easily to Clinton. SurveyUSA actually has Clinton winning Northern Indiana. If that holds, she'll win the state huge. For Obama to win the state, he has to win Northern Indiana and get some margins in Northwest Indiana. Let's remember that he won Chicago with over 70% of the vote and many in Northwest Indiana work in Chicago and get Chicago media. Factoring that in, I think pollsters are underestimating Obama's support in the Northwest where he should get out a lot of unlikely voters who view Obama as a hometown son, which is exactly what happened in Illinois and why even outperformed polls there.

Demographically, this is a state that heavily favors Clinton. Like Ohio, there are a lot of blue collar whites, and Indiana actually has less African Americans than Ohio and Pennsylvania do, and Obama lost both those states by 10%. The close proximity to Illinois, and the smaller percentage of 65 and older voters, will help him keep it closer than it otherwise would be.

Every pollster except Zogby has Clinton ahead in the state and the media has more or less rested on the expectation of Obama winning NC and Clinton winning IN. The big question is, again, the margin. A narrow Clinton win here, and a loss of eight or more in NC, will not be viewed very positively for Clinton. She needs to keep NC below eight points, and needs to win Indiana by four points or more to justify staying in the race. Doing that would result in another net loss of delegates to Obama, so in reality she'd just be falling further behind, but the media narrative would probably let her fight on anyway. If she wins Indiana by five or more, she can probably lose NC by eight to ten and still stay in, even though again, she'd still fall further behind in the delegate race.

I also think that Obama has an advantage when it comes to the ground game. With Illinois being next door, he has had plenty of resources in IN, just like he had in Iowa which also neighbored Illinois. If Indiana didn't neighbor Illinois, I'd say that Clinton wins the state by ten points, just like she won Ohio and Pennsylvania, two states somewhat similar in demographics. I'm giving Obama a few extra points due to Illinois being next door and all the advantages that brings for Obama including my expectation that he will do better in Northwest Indiana than pollsters predict, and due to the 65+ population being smaller in IN than in PA for example. I'm also giving Clinton an extra two points based on Republicans who crossover to vote for her at Rush Limbaugh's request. So I'm projecting that Clinton wins the state by eight points, 53% to 47%. I'm also projecting a delegate split of 37 for Clinton and 35 for Obama.


END RESULT
If things go down as I predict, Obama winning NC by 10% and Clinton winning IN by 8%, it would result in Obama gaining roughly 63 pledged delegates from NC and 34 from IN for a total of 98 while Clinton would gain roughly 52 from NC and 38 from IN for a total of 89, resulting in a net gain of seven pledged delegates for Obama. Not only does that mean Clinton would fall further behind, it also would mean that Obama would be roughly 182 delegates away from clinching the nomination. The result may be enough to let her stay in the race, but it wouldn't be near enough to make superdelegates shift to Clinton in blocks and would probably accelerate the flow of superdelegates to Obama at a higher rate than he already is getting.

Also keep your eye on another thing, that being when Obama clinches the majority of pledged delegates. He should easily do so on May 20th when Kentucky and Oregon vote. Don't be surprised if he declares victory on May 20th following his expected win in Oregon based on the fact that he has clinced the majority of pledged delegates, basically daring however many superdelegates remain at that time to try and overturn the pledged delegate winner. Keep in mind that several Clinton superdelegates have already stated that they will switch to Obama if he finishes the primary season with more pledged delegates. Once he clinches the majority, there is no reason for those superdelegates to wait until the end.

Once Indiana and North Carolina are complete, it will also mean that there are more undecided superdelegates than there are remaining pledged delegates, another sign that the clock is ticking and Obama's math advantage is only getting stronger as the field of potential delegates shrinks. The Rev. Wright controversy didn't push superdelegates to Clinton and unless she wins NC AND IN, nothing that happens tomorrow has the potential to either.