Delegate Update: Where Obama Stands Now
Posted by Ashish on 05.07.2008
And how February will be looked back on as the month Hillary Clinton lost the nomination...
These aren't final, but it looks like Obama is going to get 65 pledged delegates out of North Carolina and 35 out of Indiana for a total of 100 while Clinton will get 51 out of NC and 37 out of IN for a total of 88. So that's a +12 for Obama. That should put him right around 1592 pledged delegates and 1849 total delegates and put Clinton right around 1426 pledged delegates and 1697 total delegates.
So, Obama now leads by 165 pledged delegates and 151 total delegates. But the most important number -- he is roughly 176 delegates away from clinching the nomination. That number should begin to drop pretty fast as undecided superdelegates begin to come out for him in the coming days. And he will clinch a pledged delegate win on May 20th. If the race doesn't end before then, look for the superdelegate floodgates to open on May 21st.
And for all the analysts who will say that North Carolina ended up costing Clinton the nomination, let's all remember that it was the month of February that crushed her. She started February 6th with a lead in delegates and then finished February in a huge hole that all of us (well, those who can add and subtract) knew she'd never be able to make up. You can't lose 11 states in a row by 15+ points and expect to win in the end. Clinton finally was able to get a message that worked over the last few weeks, but it was way too late. Her campaign made the changes it had to make weeks, if not months, too late. Her loss in Iowa should have been the wake up call she needed to change her strategy and her advisers. Instead, she stuck with Mark Penn and stuck with her failed strategy through February and changed it once she no longer had any real chance to win. It's February that ended Clinton's chances. Everything that has happened since, including TX, OH, PA, IN, and NC, haven't changed much. All that has changed is that we are now out of big states and that is why the media, and perhaps the Clintons, finally see that it's over.
