Clinton Falls Into Huckabee Role -- What To Expect From Her Now

Posted by Ashish on 05.07.2008

Hillary Clinton has put her guns away. Where does she go now?

Hillary Clinton vowed to continue her campaign today, but it was fairly clear that we will see a different tone from her from now until the last primary contests on June 3rd. During her campaign stop in West Virginia today, Clinton seemed to remove many of her harsher shots at Obama. She also didn't mention Obama by name during her press conference with the media.

What we're now seeing is Clinton accepting that she can't win the race. She still won't quit until the end, just like Mike Huckabee didn't quit the Republican race until John McCain clinched the nomination, but also like Huckabee, I doubt we will see Clinton running negative ads or bashing the presumptive nominee -- Obama. She knows she will win West Virginia and Kentucky, and so she will do so without negativity or without spending much money. I doubt Obama spends much time in either state.

Clinton staying in until the end has several benefits for Obama. First of all, if Clinton quits tomorrow and he goes on to lose West Virginia and Kentucky (which he probably still would), it wouldn't look good. Second of all, resolving Florida and Michigan while the campaign is still active will be good for Obama and for the Democratic party. Third, Clinton continuing on but without the negativity and with a background message of party unity will help begin to unite the party and heal wounds. Fourth, it makes the last few states feel important and also sends a message that the Democratic party campaigned in every state and territory and went after every vote. And, while this isn't really an Obama benefit, if Clinton wants to make a case for VP, blowout wins in West Virginia and Kentucky probably wouldn't hurt, although I still think an Obama/Clinton ticket is extremely unlikely, mainly because Obama will probably never offer the spot to her. I will add, though, that Clinton staying in the race as a Huckabee-like character will hurt her legacy, as well as Bill Clinton's legacy. Huckabee became somewhat of a joke for staying in too long, and Clinton risks the same thing happening to her. I'm not sure she cares at this point, or if reality hasn't hit her yet. It may in the next few days.

But beyond everything else, Clinton cannot be pushed out of the race. If that happens, many of her supporters will blame it on Obama and it will make it that much harder to unite the party. That is why the general consensus from the quotes I've read from party insiders and undecided superdelegates is to let this go on until June 3rd, as long as she doesn't go negative and speaks mostly of party unity and against McCain and the Republicans, and then let her exit on her own terms in a graceful way. Even May 20th would work, as Clinton could say that Obama has now clinched the majority of the pledged delegates and use that as a way to exit gracefully. A messy exit where her supporters feel that she was forced out of the race by the media would do more to hurt Obama than help. I think he is just fine with her staying in until May 20th or June 3rd in a Huckabee role, spending her campaigning time attacking McCain and the Republicans and sort of simmering down the tension between her and Obama, and then exiting that way. It is obvious today that the people around Clinton have made it known to her that she can't win now, and she herself knows that. It was obvious from her campaign speech in West Virginia. Best thing to do is just to let her leave on her own terms. She will be the closest runner up for the Democratic nomination in history. It's a tough thing to deal with.

And anyway, Obama is already entering general election mode and plans to begin campaigning in general election states, so whether Clinton officially withdraws tomorrow or on June 3rd doesn't really make much of a difference.