Obama Needs Hillary to Stick Around
Posted by Joe Rivett on 05.12.2008
I believe Hillary Clinton remaining in the race is good news for Obama. Plus my thoughts on Hillary's biggest blunders, Mike Gravel, and how Obama is getting money from unlikely sources...
In Bob Novak style, I'll hit you with a few thoughts this week…
Obama Needs Hillary to Stick Around
Obama needs Hillary Clinton to stay in the race until June. Contrary to what many Obama supporters think, Clinton gives Obama one great advantage: an excuse. An excuse for what you might say? An excuse for losing West Virginia and Kentucky to Hillary. Imagine if Hillary Clinton bowed out a week ago and Obama still lost? It would look bad and the media would be questioning his viability. Instead, those states will be minor road bumps as Obama will likely win the last few real primaries in Oregon, Montana and South Dakota. After the last primaries, Obama should have enough delegates and super delegates to put him over the top. Hillary will have to bow out and Obama should see a major spike in the polls. The more Obama supporters whine about Hillary still being in makes Hillary's supporters angry and less likely to vote for Obama in the fall. In addition, any dirty laundry that may come out against Obama will make him more prepared to answer it then if John McCain brings it up? Imagine if Rev. Wright was dropped in October?
Why Hillary Clinton Lost Part II
Ashish wrote an excellent post why Hillary's overconfidence was stupid. However, her biggest mistake was not copying her husband and skipping Iowa. Instead, she poured in over 25 million dollars to only come up in third place. Her strategy should have been to ignore it and focus on New Hampshire, Feb. 5 and beyond. By ignoring it, she would have forced Edwards and Obama to go negative on each other thus making her look like the grown up. Edwards could have won which would have made momentum for Obama almost impossible. Even if Obama won Iowa without Hillary, New Hampshire would have been a more significant win for Clinton as she would have been 1-0 vs. Obama. It was after Obama won Iowa that he received such strong support from Blacks, had Obama not won Iowa, they may have stayed with Hillary.
Finally, not seating Michigan and Florida really hurt Hillary as she most likely would have won both states under normal circumstances. This would have given her more momentum and inevitability heading into Super Tuesday.
Mike Gravel Update
I'm hoping that Mike Gravel gets the Libertarian nod. His website features a youtube video with him singing to the Obama girl and then doing a Sojah Boy parody. Hey Obama, if you really want to change politics please let Mike Gravel debate you and John McCain! In all seriousness, many of his positions are similar to Ron Paul's except for health care financed by a consumption tax and heavy federal spending in education. The Fox Business Channel will be giving the Libertarians some love as they will be hosting a libertarian debate on May 16.
Pharmacutical Agencies Turing Blue?
According to Bloomberg.com, so far Obama has raised almost five times more money than McCain from pharmaceutical employees. Oil employees are split between McCain and Obama. Although he doesn't take from lobbies, Obama is taking in so much money from groups he opposes; he may have a hard time bringing real change. This is why he needs to consider public financing if he is serious about change.
Nobody expects Obama to win West Virginia and Kentucky in November, so their primary results have no serious implications. I also think all the dirty laundry has aired now (barring any Rezco related crisis).
I simply don't buy this talk of momentum in elections. Obama won ELEVEN states in a row and this isn't over. If that doesn't disprove the theory of momentum I don't know what does. This is a change election and Hillary ran on the experience of being first lady and her fictional adventures during that time. She was never going to win this particular election. If Obama doesn't run, or if the economy is decent, or the war were going well, she could have won easily. But all the stars alligned for Obama.
"This is why he [Obama] needs to consider public financing if he is serious about change." Passing on a five to one advantage in funding would rank among the dumbest political decisions in history. Also, you're talking about employees. Nobody running the pharmaceutical industry wants free health care, and big oil has no reason to like Obama and his desire for alternative fuels. In short, he won't be beholden to them so there's no harm. If it only costs $25 to buy influence this country is worse off than I thought.
Posted By: Shockmaster2 (Guest) on May 12, 2008 at 11:00 AM
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