What The John Edwards Endorsement of Obama Means

Posted by Ashish on 05.14.2008

Thoughts on the impact of the John Edwards endorsement...

John Edwards endorsed Barack Obama tonight in Grand Rapids, MI by delivering a strong, passionate speech in support of Obama. The endorsement is important for several reasons.

- Edwards has 19 pledged delegates (16 confirmed, three more expected from Iowa)! That's like the value of 19 superdelegates and is more valuable that the entire state of Montana or South Dakota, two of the remaining states. Those 19 pledged delegates are now going to be very likely to cast their votes for Obama. They will surely be getting calls from Obama and Edwards in the coming days, and it will be hard for them to refuse to cast their vote for Obama and stick with voting for Edwards when Edwards himself is telling them to vote for Obama. If even 10-12 of those 19 vote for Obama, it is as big a gain as Clinton got from West Virginia.

- It steps on the throat of Hillary Clinton who was hoping to get a very positive news day today following her win in West Virginia last night. A full day of positive news coverage is extremely valuable. Think back to the past big Obama endorsements -- Oprah endorsing Obama, Ted Kennedy endorsing Obama, Bill Richardson endorsing Obama, Kerry endorsing Obama -- and you'll recall how memorable they were and how obsessed the media was with them. Endorsements may not impact voters directly, but they serve as memorable moments and this endorsement plays into the media narrative that this race is over and the party is uniting behind Obama.

- This is a crushing blow to the psychology of Clinton supporters. They finally got some positive news last night, only to have it quickly forgotten today in light of the Edwards endorsement. Everyone knew that Clinton worked very hard to get Edwards' endorsement, but he went with Obama.

- This is a message to superdelegates -- it's over. Edwards is a high ranking person in the party and the most recent Vice Presidential nominee. It tells undecided superdelegates that the time for this to end is now. Along with Al Gore and maybe a few others, Edwards was the biggest available endorsement.

- Edwards is a Southern white male with a populist message that connects with low income, blue collar white men, a group Obama wants to do better with. Edwards also is a known, established Democrat and one that tends to connect with the exact type of people that make up Clinton's base.

- Edwards has a lot of ties to big unons including a few that have not yet endorsed Obama. Those unions will likely endorse Obama in the coming days, and Edwards will probably have a bit to do with it.

- The Edwards endorsement further adds to the growing perception that Clinton refuses to leave the party long after it ends. And that perception is growing by the day as more superdelegates endorse Obama daily.

As for the Obama/Edwards ticket talk that has started up again today, I doubt it. Edwards didn't do much for John Kerry in 2004 and I don't really see him getting another shot. I wouldn't, however, be shocked to see Edwards get a spot in an Obama administration in some form if he wants it. I think Obama and Edwards do have some common ground to work together on.

But still, it's another major sign that the nomination battle is over, regardless of when it "officially" ends.