Why Obama Shouldn't Pick John Edwards As His VP

Posted by Ashish on 05.16.2008

Since you asked...

A bunch of people asked me yesterday if I think Barack Obama should pick John Edwards as his VP. It seems to be a popular notion among a lot of people, just like the idea of an Obama/Hillary Clinton ticket is popular among many people, but also like Obama/Clinton, it's not something that is likely to happen.

First of all, John Edwards has the rub of a loser. It's unfortunate but it's true. He lost the 2004 Democratic nomination race to John Kerry. He and John Kerry lost the 2004 Presidential election to George W. Bush. And he lost the 2008 Democratic nomination race to Obama.

Second, Edwards does not really help Obama with any group. Yes Edwards is a white male from the South, and that might have some benefits, but there are other white men, including other white men from the South, who would offer more than Edwards. Edwards, contrary to popular belief, isn't that popular among blue collar whites, no more so really than Obama. Edwards lost that voter group to Clinton during the primaries and he and Kerry lost white men to Bush in 2004. And contrary to popular belief, Obama isn't really weak among white workers. All general election polling shows Obama and Clinton getting nearly identical support from whites in a match up against McCain. The Obama camp knows this. When the choice is Obama or Clinton, two DEMOCRATS, a big chunk of white voters picked Clinton, but when the choice is Obama and McCain, a DEMOCRAT and a REPUBLICAN, all polling shows that Obama gets basically the same amount of white support as John Kerry and Al Gore did, and that's all he needs. He'd love more, but he doesn't need it to win.

Third, Edwards wasn't that effective as Kerry's VP. He didn't do that great in his debate against Dick Cheney and was not a good "attack dog" which is one of the most valuable things a VP can offer. I'll admit that Edwards has improved as an attacker since 2004, as we saw him really take charge against Clinton during the primaries long before Obama did, but I don't think that's really enough to warrant picking him.

Forth, Edwards basically endorsed Obama when he had no other choice. He did not stand up and endorse Obama when the race was still going on. Had he endorsed, say, prior to Texas and Ohio, or even Pennsylvania, when it would have shown conviction and proven loyalty to Obama, it may have scored him some points, but he didn't. He waited and endorsed at a time when the outcome of the race is basically known to everyone. Contrast that with someone like Tim Kaine, the Governor of Virginia, who was the first elected official outside of Illinois to endorse Obama, or even someone like Bill Richardson who endorsed Obama at a key time and in the face of intense pressure from the Clintons to not endorse. Those endorsements probably convinced Obama that those guys really believed in him and would be loyal to him, where as Edwards endorsed as much for his own political relevance as he did any sort of loyalty to Obama.

Fifth, Edwards is from North Carolina, a state that will be in play for Obama, but he and Kerry lost it by double digits in 2004. Now, obviously Obama starts off in much stronger position in NC than Kerry did, so Edwards wouldn't have to do as much to deliver the state, but history is history.

Sixth, Obama and Edwards have a somewhat substantial disagreement on healthcare, and Edwards attacked Obama over his healthcare plan several times during the primaries.

Seventh, Edwards has been somewhat branded as a "phony" over the years.

Eighth, Edwards is tied to the past. Much of Obama's campaign is built on the idea of new people, people not tied to the failures of the past, taking over Washington. Edwards, fairly or unfairly, is linked to the past and linked to the high profile 2004 Kerry/Bush election. He is a national figure that is tied to old Washington politics and, again, fairly or unfairly, has a rep of saying one thing and doing another.

Ninth, he voted for the Iraq war.

Tenth, Edwards has no credibility in foreign policy or the military, two areas Obama probably needs his VP to be strong in. Edwards also has no military service, another thing that Obama might want in his VP.

Eleventh, Edwards has no executive experience outside of running for President, a line of criticism often used against Obama. He's also a former Senator. I'd think Obama would pick a Governor as his VP pick as a way of adding executive experience to the ticket without saddling himself with an old Washington figure.

Now, it's not that any one of these items disqualifies anyone from being VP. It's that all of them combined probably do. I wouldn't be surprised, however, to see Edwards get a position in an Obama administration if it comes to that, perhaps as Attorney General.

Bill Richardson, Tim Kaine, Jim Webb, and Kathleen Sebelius still seem to be the favorites to me. All except Webb have stood up for Obama long before they had to, something I think someone like Obama would put a lot of stock in. I just don't see him picking someone who he has no personal connection with or someone who hasn't proven some sort of loyalty to him.

Kaine is a white male, just like Edwards, but doesn't have the 2004 baggage that Edwards has, isn't linked to the past, is young (50) but has executive experience, is new on the national scene, didn't vote for the Iraq war, is very popular as the Governor of Virginia (a state the Obama camp thinks he can win), was born in Minnesota (another state he can help in), and endorsed Obama long before anyone thought Obama could win. The main problem Kaine has, though, is that he is pro-life.

Webb is a white male, was born in the South (in Missouri, a swing state), is a Senator from Virginia (a swing state), is a highly decorated Vietnam War veteran, spent four years with the Reagan Administration as the first Assistant Secretary of Defense for Reserve Affairs and later as Secretary of the Navy, he isn't really a known national figure, is a harsh critic of Bush and would be a very good attack dog considering his military credentials, has mostly moderate positions which plays well in the general election, and his son currently serves in Iraq. It would be a easy way for Obama to add instant military experience and a true American patriot to the ticket. Webb, though, has not endorsed Obama yet (he hasn't endorsed anyone). Kaine would be more valuable in Virginia, since Governors tend to have bigger machines and more influence than Senators, but nationally, Webb could be a real asset, and would also be good to campaign elsewhere in the South to moderate Democrats and Republicans who aren't happy with Bush. His military credentials can't be understated.

Bill Richardson is someone I've spoken about in detail already. He instantly would solve Obama's problems with Hispanic voters and thus deliver more votes overnight to Obama than any other VP pick could, he is the Governor of a swing state (New Mexico), he would be able to campaign to the large number of Hispanics in swing states like Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and even Texas, he has more experience than basically anyone, he comes off as a nice guy, and he is a somewhat moderate Democrat. Of course, not having a white person on the ticket is a big risk, and Richardson is prone to saying stupid stuff.

Kathleen Sebelius is probably Obama's top female candidate. She is the Governor of a red state (Kansas), has proven she can campaign to Republicans and win them over, has a lot of experience, would help solve whatever harsh feelings women may have about Hillary Clinton losing, is someone who Obama seems to personally respect, and is in line with Obama's main political themes of working with opponents.