Will Obama Declare Victory Tonight?

Posted by Ashish on 05.20.2008

Thoughts on what to expect from Oregon and Kentucky tonight...

Oregon and Kentucky vote tonight and with the Democratic nomination battle essentially over now, the question isn't who will win what, it's whether or not Barack Obama will declare some sort of victory tonight as he will clinch the majority of pledged delegates. He is certainly going for a memorable moment, as he will deliver his speech tonight from Iowa, not Oregon. Iowa is of course the state that launched Obama's campaign by giving him a pretty stunning victory while Hillary Clinton finished in third. Now, months later, Obama is returning to the state for this historic event where he more or less reaches the goal his campaign set out to achieve -- winning the most pledged delegates.

I don't expect Obama to come out and declare outright victory, but I do expect him to acknowledge that he has now clinched the majority of pledged delegates and framing the nomination battle as one he will win once voting ends. It's abundantly clear to everyone now that Clinton can't win, as she would need to get 96% of the remaining superdelegates to back her in order to reach the magic number of 2025 delegates before Obama, and obviously that isn't going to happen. Even if Florida and Michigan are seated exactly how Clinton wants, she'd still lose, so there is no scenario where Clinton can win now. Obama's already getting virtually every undecided superdelegate who endorses, but keep in mind that nearly 30 other undecided superdelegates have already stated that they will endorse the candidate who wins the pledged delegate battle, and as of tonight, that will be Obama. They may wait until the end of the primaries (June 3rd) to endorse, as may most of the other superdelegates, but the vast majority of them, if not all, will end up endorsing Obama.

For those of us who have followed this race from the start, it will be a memorable moment to say the least tonight. Obama really was given virtually no chance to beat the Clinton machine a year ago, and now, here we are, on the verge of the biggest upset in political history. Obama's victory speech in Iowa was the official start of this chaotic primary season, and tomorrow's speech will, for the most part, mark the end of the most memorable primary battle ever.

Obama's speech will be very telling, as he has to continue to walk a fine line between upsetting the diehard Clinton supporters, but still nudging Clinton to the sidelines and framing the race as him vs. John McCain. The media has already more or less moved on from Obama vs. Clinton to Obama vs. McCain as the last week has focused more on the general election than the primary battle.

Obama should win Oregon tonight, but I doubt he will wait for the Oregon results to come in (Oregon results won't be in until 11PM ET). He will clinch the majority of pledged delegates with his loss in Kentucky, so look for him to speak shortly after that so that he reaches the largest audience possible. Clinton will win Kentucky big, but it doesn't matter now. Obama will get the number of delegates he needs to clinch from Kentucky, and his Oregon win will be gravy.

The other story will be how Clinton behaves starting tonight with her speech. We've now seen public perception of her dive. SNL, the late shows, etc. have started to portray her as a desperate person who refuses to leave the party long after it has ended, and if she doesn't get the hint tonight, she'll be putting her future legacy, not to mention her political future, in serious jeopardy.