Obama Provides Symbolic End To Historic Nomination Battle

Posted by Ashish on 05.20.2008

Thoughts on the Kentucky/Oregon results and Obama's historic speech...

The final "big" primary day of 2008 is over as Barack Obama won Oregon big and Hillary Clinton won Kentucky big. No real surprises from either state as the results were exactly what was expected. The big news from the night, however, is that Obama clinched the majority of pledged delegates and delivered one of his best speeches yet that served to provide a symbolic end to what has been the most historic nomination battle in American history.

It was a speech in which Obama had the magic of his post-Iowa and post-South Carolina speeches which focused on his grand themes of hope and unity, but also firmly established his main opponent now as John McCain, not Hillary Clinton. I thought Obama did a solid job of taking ob McCain and George W. Bush over the whole appeasement/Iran/Cuba foreign policy debate for the past week, and tonight he did something very smart. He became the aggressor of the argument. Bush started all of this last week, but tonight Obama basically put the challenge to them, calling them "fearful" of negotiating with rogue nations. Flipping the "fear" bomb onto Republicans is news in itself, since Bush basically beat John Kerry in 2004 on the strength of that word. If Obama manages to take that word away from them, that is a huge victory in and of itself.

Obama also walked the fine line of declaring a special moment -- that he had clinched the majority of pledged delegates -- without seeming like he was rubbing anything in anyone's face. The Obama camp has EVERY right to highlight their pledged delegate win tonight because that is what their campaign has been about since DAY ONE. While the Clintons have changed what matters basically daily, the Obama camp has been saying since BEFORE IOWA that what matters is pledged delegates. There goal from the beginning was to win the majority of pledged delegates and they reached that goal tonight and deserved to celebrate it.

He also increased his praise of Clinton as he continues to try and set up a graceful exit for her. I'm not sure if we'll ever see her leave gracefully though. Ultimately, she will either have to leave gracefully or be ousted by Nancy Pelosi and the party top brass. If the Clintons are as smart as I think they are, they won't let it come to that and they will concede in early June.

That being said, tonight was a special moment for everyone who has followed this wild ride of a nomination battle and especially so for Obama supporters who weren't given much of a chance when all of this started.

So, where do we go from here? Obama will probably hit the 2,026 delegates needed to clinch the nomination sometime in the next two weeks, possibly before the next primary vote (Puerto Rico on June 1st). He'll need about 70 or so superdelegates to reach that number. Though, with only two weeks left, it wouldn't shock me to see most superdelegates just wait now until the end.

May 31st will be a key day as some sort of resolution regarding Florida and Michigan will be made. It is expected that both states will have their delegates seated, but with half votes. That would result in Clinton gaining something like 20-30 pledged delegates out of the two states. That wouldn't change anything and she'd still trail by over 150 delegates. The 2026 number might change that day, but Obama should clinch the nomination by June 3rd at the latest since he will probably get 35 or more pledged delegates out of the three remaining votes (Puerto Rico, Montana, North Dakota). Factoring that in, he only needs about 30 superdelegates to clinch and he shouldn't have any trouble getting that. It's worth noting that Nancy Pelosi and the entire "Pelosi Club", all superdelegates, have already stated that they will support the pledged delegate winner who is now Obama. That is 22 superdelegates right there.

As has been the case since late February, this race is over. Obama has won. The only thing to really see now is how Clinton goes out and how that will impact her political future.