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New Polls 06.13.08: MN, OR
Posted by Ashish on 06.13.2008

We have a few more new polls today.

- In Oregon, Rasmussen has Obama ahead of McCain, 46% to 38%. This is another state that Obama is performing better than Kerry did thus far. Kerry won Oregon in 2004 by 4%. This is also another state that McCain has said he plans to compete in, but that he doesn't seem to be making any inroads in. One interesting note from the poll, 53% say Obama should not pick Hillary Clinton as his VP, while just 27% say he should.

- In Minnesota, Rasmussen has Obama just crushing McCain, 52% to 39%. This is another state that McCain plans to compete in but that he doesn't appear to have a shot in. Obama has had double digit leads in Rasmussen's last three Minnesota polls. Obama is crushing McCain among independents here, 50% to 32%, and is doing fine uniting Democrats, getting 86% of their vote. Just 35% agree with McCain that winning the war in Iraq is more important than getting troops out, while 57% say it is most important to get troops out. It's going to be hard for McCain to make up any ground here with the majority of the state against him on one of his main issues.

I'm getting to sound like a broken record here, but the poll numbers that came out this week have been a disaster for McCain. We now can see that FIVE states McCain plans to compete in -- Iowa, Minnesota, Washington, Oregon, and Wisconsin -- are already showing fairly large, consistent Obama leads. In the case of Washington, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, he is now behind by double digits. The only Kerry state that McCain seems to have a chance at flipping other than New Hampshire is Michigan, and that state remains somewhat of a question mark since Obama has yet to spend much time there. On the other hand, Obama appears in place to win every Kerry state except New Hampshire, and is in good position to outright win SEVEN states Bush won in 2004 -- Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio. McCain is finding himself in a position where he is going to have to stretch his resources out just to defend seven states Bush won in 2004, and doesn't appear to be in position to play offense in any of the states Kerry narrowly won in 2004 except New Hampshire. This leaves almost no room for error for McCain.

Kerry had 256 electoral votes in 2004. If we remove New Hampshire and add Iowa, a very likely outcome at this point, it changes the number to 259. That means all Obama needs is 11 electoral votes from six states that he is currently polling ahead in or tied in, and that doesn't even include Florida and Indiana, two other red states that he is polling close to McCain in. Obama is in a position now where all he has to do is flip one of the larger red states (Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, or Indiana) or two of the small red states (Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada) to win. This is not a safe position to be in for McCain.


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