New Polls 06.20.08: GA, NV, IA, NH, CA

Posted by Ashish on 06.20.2008

Four swing state polls including a stunner out of Georgia...

Four new polls today...

-- The headliner is out of Georgia where InsiderAdvantage has McCain clinging to a 1% lead over Obama, 44% to 43%, with third party candidate Bob Barr getting 6% (he is from Georgia). This is a state that nobody thought would be in play this year. When news came that the Obama camp planned to compete in the state, many questioned the decision, but it's clear now what Obama's internal polls were showing -- Georgia is a swing state this year. This is another big problem for McCain. Like North Carolina, this state is a lose-lose for McCain. He either has to ignore it and risk losing it, or spend money and resources in it and be that much weaker elsewhere. Unlike Alaska, which McCain can possibly risk ignoring because it only has three electoral votes, Georgia instantly becomes one of the larger swing states and one that can have huge ramifications, since it has 15 electoral votes. For example, if Obama just holds on to the 2004 Kerry states and adds Georgia, he wins the election. I've gone ahead and moved Georgia from safe McCain to swing state status in the sidebar. This will be an interesting state to watch.

-- In New Hampshire, Rasmussen has Obama with a big lead over McCain, 50% to 39%. This is the second straight poll out of New Hampshire to show a double digit Obama lead. One more and I'm going to move the state from swing state to safe Obama. Last month Obama led by 5% and the month before, McCain led by 10%. The huge swing to Obama is largely due to women voters who now, with Clinton out of the race, are flocking to the remaining Democrat. He leads McCain by 16 points among women in this poll. Obama also leads McCain among men by seven points. Obama is clobbering McCain with New Hampshire's many independents as well, 50% to 35%.

-- In Nevada, Rasmussen has McCain holding on to a slight lead over Obama, 45% to 42%. Last month, McCain's lead was 6%. The gender gap is apparent here, as McCain leads men by 14 points while Obama leads women by eight points. This is a state that is likely going to remain very close.

- In Iowa, SurveyUSA has Obama ahead of McCain, 49% to 45%. Obama has led in all SEVENTEEN polls of Iowa done this year and it is looking like a very likely pick up for Obama. Bush won Iowa in 2004. If Obama can expand his lead a bit, it's a state that could be moved from swing state to safe Obama soon. It's worth noting that Obama's lead is probably slightly larger than this poll says, since the poll has McCain winning black voters 55% to 45% (but black voters only make up 2% of the electorate in Iowa). That's obviously a sampling error. SurveyUSA also tested potential VPs. New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is McCain's strongest pick arrording to the poll while Virginia Senator Jim Webb is Obama's best pick.

- And in California, SurveyUSA has Obama with a big lead over McCain, 53% to 41%. Obama crushes McCain among the state's large Hispanic electorate, 65% to 26, the state's large "other" population, 68% to 27%, and the state's African Americans, 80% to 20%. Obama also wins women by 33%. McCain has made mentions of competing in California, but he'd be a fool to do so. He has been behind by double digits in every recent poll and now that he will have to defend red states like Georgia and North Carolina, he cannot waste time or money in an expensive state like California. This poll also tested VP picks and found that New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson would be Obama's best pick in the state while New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg would be McCain's best pick.