New Polls 06.24.08: MI, IN, NM

Posted by Ashish on 06.24.2008

The bad news keeps coming for John McCain...

We have three new polls today including one absolute stunner...

-- In Indiana, SurveyUSA has Obama BEATING McCain 48% to 47%! This is a state that Bush won by 21% in 2004 and was considered one of the safest Republican states in the country not too long ago. What has happened since then is anybody's guess, but I attribute this massive change to three things. One, Indiana has been one of the hardest hit states economically over the past few years and as is usually the case, they are blaming the party of the sitting President. Two, the intense Obama/Clinton Indiana primary registered tons of new voters and also resulted in many Republicans switching parties. Three, Obama is a midwestern candidate from a state that borders Indiana and thus is performing very well in parts of Indiana that share media with Illinois. Whatever the case, this is another state that should be safe for Republicans but isn't, joining Alaska, North Carolina, and Georgia. McCain can't afford to compete in all these states. Where he decides to allocate resources will be very telling. This is also another state in which Obama was heavily questioned when he announced plans to compete in, but now we see why. This state, at least right now, is a swing state. According to this poll, Obama wins women by 7%, McCain wins men by 5%. Obama wins voters 18-49 by 5% while McCain wins voters 50 and older by 3%. The really troubling sign for McCain is that his two strongest issues, terrorism (he wins 92% to 8% among voters who view terrorism as the top issue) and immigration (he wins 90% to 8% among voters who view immigration as the top issue) are only the top issues for 17% of the state. Obama's top issues, the economy (he wins 54% to 40%) and Iraq (he wins 66% to 31%) are the top issues for 62% of the state.

-- In New Mexico, SurveyUSA has Obama ahead of McCain 49% to 46%. Just about every poll of New Mexico done in the past few months has shown Obama leading and the state looks pretty safe for Obama right now. The poll has him winning women by 30% while McCain wins men by 24% and it also has him winning Hispanics 29% (63% to 34%).

-- And in Michigan, PPP has Obama leading McCain comfortably, 48% to 39%. As expected, Obama is starting to solidfy himself in Michigan as he spends more time there. The close race in Michigan over the past few weeks seems to have been more a result of Obama not campaigning there during the primaries and thus not being known as well. Now that he has held a few big rallies in the state and has his ground game in place, the state is looking pretty solidly blue. Obama wins 78% of Democrats in Michigan which is better than McCain does with Republicans (he wins 74% of Republicans).

That Indiana number is pretty alarming for McCain. How much time and money he sinks into states like Indiana, Alaska, Georgia, and North Carolina may have more impact on key swing states like Ohio, Florida, Missouri, etc. than anything else.