New Polls 06.25.08: MO, CA, NE
Posted by Ashish on 06.25.2008
Three new polls today...
Three new polls today...
-- In Missouri, SurveyUSA has McCain leading Obama comfortably, 50% to 43%. Missouri looks to be one of the few swing states that is leaning to the right. I have had it in the McCain column in my electoral college breakdowns and that seems to be the safe bet right now. It is worth noting that this poll does have some weird internals, like McCain and Obama being EVEN among young voters which seems like a sample error. The big gap is that McCain dominates among men, leading by 24%, while Obama only wins women by 9%. McCain's also winning independents by 26%. Other pollsters have had the state closer, so it's hard to know exactly what the situation is, but McCain does seem to be the favorite in Missouri. The poll also tested VP candidates. Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill shows up as Obama's best pick while New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg shows up as McCain's best pick.
-- In California, Rasmussen has Obama destroying McCain, 58% to 30%. I think we learned all we needed to know about McCain's chances in California when he called for off-shore drilling, an extremely unpopular position in CA. He had mentioned trying to compete in CA awhile back, but it's pretty clear now that he has given up on it. The Democratic party in California seems very united, more so than in other states, as Obama gets 84% of Democrats while McCain gets just 67% of Republicans.
-- And in Nebraska, Rasmussen has McCain with a big lead over Obama, 52% to 36%. No real surprise here as Nebraska is one of the safest Republican states on the map. One interesting thing to note is that Nebraska is one of two states that is NOT winner take all (the other being Maine). Nebraska has five electoral votes. Two of them go to the winner of the state's popular vote, and the other three are split by congressional district, meaning if Obama wins one of the congressional districts despite losing the state, he'd still get an electoral vote. It's something to keep an eye on.
Posted By: Guest#0376 (Guest) on June 25, 2008 at 06:55 PM
Did anyone bother to look at the internals for that Missouri poll? It's crap. McCain tied with Obama among 18-29 voters? Please. McCain staying close in St. Louis? Ridiculous.
Posted By: Please (Guest) on June 25, 2008 at 06:56 PM
Well, Survey USA had Clinton winning Missouri by 11 a day before the primaries. She lost. When asked, their director of polling said " Missouri is a hard place to poll accurately". I guess this poll reflects that.
Posted By: Guest#6775 (Guest) on June 25, 2008 at 10:23 PM
It's true. Missouri is notoriously hard to poll. The state is anyone's guess. I wouldn't be surprised to see another poll come out from someone else showing Obama ahead.
Posted By: Saya (Guest) on June 25, 2008 at 11:21 PM
Obama won by a very large margin in St. Louis and Kansas City. The only Obama campaigning in Missouri was one visit to KC and St. Louis. The primary was only a week or two after Claire McCaskill endorsed Obama.
Kansas City
Name, Number of Votes, Percent
Clinton, Hillary DEM 19,978 32.9%
Obama, Barack DEM 40,057 65.9%
Paul, Ron REP 862 6.7%
Thompson, Fred REP 70 .5%
Romney, Mitt REP 4,138 32.2%
Giuliani, Rudy REP 77 .6%
McCain, John REP 4,822 37.5%
Huckabee, Mike REP 2,761 21.5%
St. Louis
Clinton, Hillary DEM 18,326 27.2%
Obama, Barack DEM 47,813 71.1%
Paul, Ron REP 684 7.0%
Thompson, Fred REP 68 .7%
Romney, Mitt REP 2,858 29.1%
Giuliani, Rudy REP 95 1.0%
McCain, John REP 4,371 44.5%
Huckabee, Mike REP 1,613 16.4%
Posted By: Sheri (Guest) on June 26, 2008 at 01:22 PM
STAY CURRENT