New Polls 06.26.08: MN, WI, CO, MI, TN, TX

Posted by Ashish on 06.26.2008

Lots of new polls from swing states and the news is all bad for John McCain...

John McCain finally got some good news yesterday with a poll showing him winning Missouri, but it is right back to bad news today. We have a lot of big polls out today and all the news is bad for the Republican nominee...

-- In Minnesota, Qunnipac has Obama with a big lead over McCain, 54% to 37%. Minnesota is a state that is looking more and more like a safe Obama win. McCain keeps making claims that he will compete in Minnesota but at this point, it seems as if it would be a waste of his money and resources to do so, especially when he has so many states he will need to play defense in. Obama gets 88% of Democrats and beats McCain among independents by 21%. He also wins women by 26% and wins white voters by 12%. At this point, Obama is doing much better in Minnesota than Kerry did (Kerry barely won Minnesota in 2004) and one more poll showing a double digit lead in Minnesota will convince me that the state, for now, is safe for Obama and not a swing state. Obama has now led in the last NINE polls of Minnesota, five of which have him leading by 13% or more. It's even worse for McCain when you consider the fact that he has been running ads in Minnesota for a few weeks now and they don't seem to be having much effect.

-- In Wisconsin, Quinnipac has Obama with a big lead over McCain, 52% to 39%. This is a state that looks very safe for Obama right now. Three polls have been done of Wisconsin since Hillary Clinton withdrew and they have Obama leading by 13%, 9%, and 13%. This is another state that McCain has mentioned competing in, but doesn't look all that close at all. Obama gets 88% of Democrats, wins independents by 13%, wins women by 16%, wins men by 7%, wins whites by 7%, and even wins voters 55 and older by 6%. Wisconsin is another state that I plan to move from swing state to safe Obama state if polling continues to show that McCain isn't all that competitive there.

-- In Colorado, Qunnipac shows Obama leading McCain, 49% to 44%. Obama continues to look good in Colorado, another key swing state. Every poll of Colorado has shown an Obama lead (except one back in March that had the race tied). Obama wins women by 14%, wins Hispanics by 26%, and even wins among every age group.

-- In Michigan, Qunnipac has Obama up over McCain, 46% to 42%. After some early troubles, Michigan polls are now showing a consistent Obama lead as every poll done since Clinton withdrew has had Obama up. Obama wins women by 14%, losing among men by 1%, gets 89% of the black vote, 42% of the white vote (McCain gets 48%), and wins every age group.

-- In Tennessee, Rasmussen has McCain leading Obama 51% to 36%. That's actually a bit closer than expected for Obama in a state that most figure will go to McCain easily.

-- And in Texas, Lyceum has McCain barely leading Obama, 43% to 38%. I'm not going to make a huge deal about this number until other polls confirm Texas as being this close, but obviously if this poll is accurate, the McCain campaign has some serious problems to deal with. Texas was thought to be a very safe Republican state. Even the Senate race between Republican Senator John Cornyn and Democratic challenger Rick Noriega is a dead heat, 38% to 36%. If Obama can keep close to McCain in Texas, it'll be a huge help to Noriega.


The main thing that sticks out to me from today's polls is that McCain has a major decision to make regarding whether to really try and go after Minnesota and Wisconsin, or give them up now. Neither state is looking particularly close, and getting him to spend money and time there may end up being a benefit to Obama. McCain is only looking competitive in two states John Kerry won in 2004, those being Michigan and New Hampshire, while Obama is currently looking competitive in 12 states George W. Bush won in 2004, those being Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia, Florida, and Alaska. McCain has a lot of states he will have to play defense in, and that is going to limit where he can play offense.