A Look at the Senate Races in '08

Posted by J.D. Dunn on 06.27.2008

"You are -- a senator!" - Othello



Ah, the Senate – that most deliberative of legislative bodies, the scourge of Jessie D. Bright, fortress of solitude to Vice President Dick Cheney.

In the hullabaloo surrounding the 2008 presidential election, we seem to have forgotten that one-third of the U.S. Senate has the potential to turn over.

Let's take a look at the 2008 races and the possible make-up of the U.S. Senate.

A few notes:

* - denotes incumbent

some states still do not have polling data available or have very old data and are not included.

obviously, it's very early and anything can happen between now and election day

special thanks to Rassmussen Polling & PPP as well as Realclearpolitics.com on a few of the bios.

Alabama:
Jeff Sessions* (R) vs. Vivian Davis Figures
Alabama has never elected a female senator. They won't in 2008 either. Sessions is still popular in the Republican south, which looks to be John McCain's firewall, despite evangelical objections. Figures won the June 3 primary, but Sessions holds a 33-point lead over a generic Democrat (Rasmussen). Sessions should have no problem here.
Prediction: No Change

Alaska:
Ted Stevens* (R) vs. Mark Begich (D)
Steven is under federal investigation for his questionable ties to oil companies. Begich is the mayor of Anchorage. That puts Alaska in play for the Democrats for the first time since… well, Seward. Right now, the race is a dead heat with Stevens leading by 2-percent (according to Rasmussen), well within the margin of error. How Begich does might depend on how hard Barack Obama decides to fight for Alaska.
Prediction: No Change

Colorado:
Mark Udall (D) vs. Bob Schaffer (R)
For years, Wayne Allard was considered the worst Senator in all of the U.S., receding into the woodwork only to come out every six years to run for re-election. Both guys are popular. Schaffer promised to serve only three terms if elected to the House, and he kept that promise. Udall is a popular member of the House and has been since 1998. It comes as a surprise to most outsiders, but Colorado has slowly been trending from Red to Blue. Democrats control the governorship and both houses of the legislature. If Udall and Obama can maintain the momentum shown in the polls, Colorado could be a keystone state in the presidential race.
Prediction: Democrats +1

Georgia:
Saxby Chambliss* (R) vs. Vernon Jones (D)
Chambliss is enormously popular in Georgia. Vernon Jones will need an Obama avalanche to carry him to victory, and that's just not going to happen barring divine intervention. Chambliss is up by nearly 30 in recent polling.
Prediction: No Change

Iowa:
Tom Harkin* (D) vs. Christopher Reed (R)
Harkin is an institution in Iowa, having served four terms in the Senate. Reed won a hotly contested primary. Iowa has limited polling, but it's hard to imagine Harkin getting knocked off this year.
Prediction: No Change

Kansas:
Pat Roberts* (R) vs. ?
Democrats don't pick their candidate until August, which is a bad idea in a state that's practically maroon. Smart money is on Jim Slattery to emerge for the Democrats and get thrashed by the incumbent Roberts.
Prediction: No Change

Kentucky:
Mitch McConnell* (R) vs. Bruce Lunsford (D)
McConnell shouldn't be having as much trouble as he is. He is the Senate Minority leader and has a huge fund-raising advantage. Lunsford is a rich businessman, though, and can afford to finance his own campaign. Polling is all over the place here, but smart money is on McConnell pulling this one out, in spite of bad times for Republicans.
Prediction: No Change

Louisiana:
Mary Landrieu* (D) vs. John Kennedy (R)
This is one that Republicans think they can pick up. In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the Louisiana electorate is redder than ever, and Landrieu squeaked by even before that disaster. John Kennedy, other than having a senatorial name, is a former Democrat who turned Republican specifically to run here. Rasmussen shows this one close with Landrieu only having a 3-point advantage.
Prediction: No Change

Maine:
Susan Collins* (R) vs. Tom Allen (D)
Collins is one of the more moderate Republicans in the Senate, a fact that has kept her employed in a fairly liberal state. Allen has been closing the gap, according to Rasmussen. It's doubtful Maine will throw out the incumbent without a huge Obama landslide.
Prediction: No Change

Massachusetts:
John Kerry* (D) vs. Jeff Beatty (R)
Kerry is still popular in one of the most liberal states in the union. Beatty is only there for show. Rasmussen has Kerry with a 63-25 advantage.
Prediction: No Change

Michigan:
Carl Levin* (D) vs. Jack Hoogendyk (R)
Levin has represented Michigan for what seems like an eternity. Hoogendyk has little chance according to recent polling. What makes this election important is that Levin might provide coattails for Barack Obama. Generally, it's the presidential candidate providing coattails, but if the popular Levin can get Democratic turnout, it may turn what looks to be a close state in Obama's favor.
Prediction: No Change

Minnesota:
Norm Coleman* (R) vs. Al Franken (D)
Let's face it. This is the one we all want to see. Coleman is a former Democrat who replaced the late Paul Wellstone. Franken is the former Saturday Night Live writer who has become a well-known liberal writer and talk-show host. Franken emerged victorious from the Democratic primary. Initial polls showed him down by as much as 20 to Coleman, but he was closing the gap until an IRS snafu gave him a lot of bad publicity (As a travelling comedian, Franken claims income from several states. He apparently paid too much in some states and not enough in others.) Rasmussen has this one close with Coleman holding a 3-point advantage.
Prediction: No Change

Mississippi:
SPECIAL - Roger Wicker* (R) vs. Ronnie Musgrove (D)
Wicker was appointed to replace the retired Trent Lott and is running for re-election. This would normally be a clear Republican victory (Lott nearly doubled up his last Democratic challenger). However, there is some controversy here as this is a special election, which means that the ballots will likely not feature party identification. Many credit lack of party identification with the Democratic special-election victory this past Spring. Rasmussen has Wicker leading by only one point.
Prediction: No Change

Mississippi:
Thad Cochran* (R) vs. Erik Fleming (D)
Democrats have barely even bothered challenging Cochran in recent years. Fleming probably won't offer up much of a challenge either. His plusses are that he's black in a state that is over one-third black. His minuses are that he's not named "Thad Cochran." Rasmussen has Cochran up by nearly 30.
Prediction: No Change

Nebraska:
Mike Johanns (R) vs. Scott Kleeb (D)
This is for the seat being vacated by Chuck Hagel. Johanns is the former governor who became the Agriculture Secretary for President Bush. Kleeb is a farmer who went to Yale. I'll say that again. Kleeb is a farmer who went to Yale. Johanns is up by 27, according to Rasmussen.
Prediction: No Change

New Hampshire:
John Sununu* (R) vs. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
This is Round 2 for Shaheen and Sununu. In 2002, Sununu rode a Republican post-9/11 wave to success. 2008 is a far different year for Republicans, though. New Hampshire has also been trending Democrat. Both Rasmussen and ARG have Shaheen up by 14.
Prediction: Democrats +1

New Jersey:
Frank Lautenberg* (D) vs. Dick Zimmer (R)
Lautenberg is 84 and is facing questions about his age. Strong Republican challenger Anne Estebrook, a moderate, was forced out of the race by a stroke. Dick Zimmer, who lost to Bob Torricelli the last time around, is now the Republican challenger. Recent polls have Lautenberg up by between 9-17 percent.
Prediction: No Change

New Mexico:
Steve Pearce (R) vs. Tom Udall (D)
This is for the seat vacated by Republican Pete Domenici. New Mexico has been a toss-up in recent elections. Pearce fended off Heather Wilson, but he seems to have run into a brick wall with Udall, a Democrat. Udall, whose cousin Mark is also running for Senate in Colorado, is up by 28 points, according to Rasmussen. This would be a huge pick up for the Democrats.
Prediction: Democrats +1

Oklahoma:
James Inhofe* (R) vs. Andrew Rice (D)
Inhofe is popular only in Oklahoma, but that's the only place that counts this November. Andrew Rice is a sheep being thrown to the lions here. Inhofe should coast to victory, and the only polling done shows him up by 22 points (Research 2000).
Prediction: No Change

Oregon:
Gordon Smith* (R) vs. Jeff Merkley (D)
Oregon is deeply divided into the bluest of blues and slightly red, depending on the region. Smith, a Republican in a normally blue state, is unpopular right now, so he's recently been darting to the left to associate himself with Barack Obama. Polling still has him ahead, despite his lack of popularity and a strong Democratic challenge.
Prediction: No Change

North Carolina:
Elizabeth Dole* (R) vs. Kay Hagan (D)
Dole is the former National Republican Senate Committee chairman who presided over the 2006 debacle. Still, she's popular among conservative North Carolina where only the basketball teams are blue. Hagan is the niece of former Florida governor Lawton Chiles. Polling shows an uphill battle for the Democrats.
Prediction: No Change

Texas:
John Cornyn* (R) vs. Rick Noriega (D)
And you thought Barack Hussein Obama had name issues. Cornyn isn't as popular as you might think, but Texas prides itself on its cowboys. With that in mind, take a look at Cornyn's latest ad:



Cornyn should win in a walk… erm, hayride.
Prediction: No Change

Virginia:
Jim Gilmore (R) vs. Mark Warner (D)
Virginia is a lot purpler than its recent voting record indicates. Both Gilmore and Warner are former governors vying to replace Republican John Warner (no relation). Warner's name has been bandied about as a Vice Presidential possibility for Barack Obama, but he has already ruled that out and looks to have a big lead according to the most recent PPP pole.
Prediction: Democrats +1

The final tally shows a +4 for the Democrats with the Minnesota and Louisiana races being wild cards that could swing either way. The 60-vote super-majority is a just a pipedream at this point, but it looks like the Democrats should be able to solidify their position as the majority party even without Joe Liebermann's caucus support.