New Polls 06.30.08: VA, GA, FL, AL, MA

Posted by Ashish on 06.30.2008

New polls from swing states of Virginia, Florida, and Georgia!

-- In Virginia, SurveyUSA has Obama ahead of McCain, 49% to 47%. Obama led by 7% in SurveyUSA's poll last month, but this new poll seems to have a sampling error in that it has McCain winning 25% of the African American vote, a number he almost surely won't reach. If we adjust the African American vote to 90% for Obama and 10% for McCain, a more likely outcome, Obama's lead is basically the same as last month. This poll also has McCain getting 47% of voters 18-34, another number he is very unlikely to reach. Other notes from the poll: McCain leads men by 18% while Obama wins women by 22%, McCain wins whites 54% to 41%, McCain gets 86% of Republicans (31% of the electorate) while Obama gets 79% of Democrats (43% of the electorate), and McCain wins Independents 49% to 43%. Obama continues to be in good position to pull off a major upset in Virginia. His campaign has said over and over again that they won't pick their VP based on trying to win a state, but someone like Jim Webb could possibly put this state away. This poll did test potential VP candidates. Webb was Obama's strongest pick while Bloomberg was McCain's top pick

-- In Georgia, Rasmussen has McCain ahead comfortably over Obama, 53% to 43%, with Bob Barr getting 1%. This number sure takes the excitement away from the InsiderAdvantage Georgia poll from two weeks ago which had Obama trailing by just 1% and Barr getting 6%. Obviously, one of the big keys for Obama in Georgia will be how much of the vote Barr gets, since just about all his votes will come directly as the expense of McCain. For Obama to be competitive in the state, Barr will probably need to get at least 5%. The Rasmussen poll does state that up to 6% of the state's voters, almost all of them McCain supporters, are considering voting for Barr. Georgia is going to be a tough state for Obama and I wouldn't be surprised to see McCain not spend any money or time defending it, because if he loses Georgia, it will probably be part of a fairly large Obama win in November.

- In Florida, Rasmussen has McCain ahead of Obama 48% to 41%. The conventional wisdom has been that Florida won't really be in play this year. We got a few polls a few weeks ago showing leads for Obama, but this poll is more in line with what people expect. Rasmussen does have the state slowly tightening, as last week McCain led by 8%, he led by 10% one month ago, and 15% two months ago. Obama pulling off a win in Florida would probably only happen as part of a large Obama win around the country.

-- In Massachusetts, SurveyUSA has Obama leading McCain comfortably, 53% to 40%. This isn't a state that will be close and McCain isn't going to compete here. The poll did test potential VP picks and Joe Biden polled as Obama's strongest pick while Michael Bloomberg was McCain's strongest pick.

-- In Alabama, Rasmussen has McCain leading Obama comfortably, 51% to 36%. Alabama isn't a state that is expected to be close.